NHL Grind Down: Friday, April 6th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-04-06 19:41:57 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins

Ottawa Senators					Pittsburgh Penguins
			Craig Anderson					Casey DeSmith
			Record					Record
			28-41-11
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.71	3.44	16.94	76.00	Team Stats	3.26	3.05

Senators Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 55.45 CF/60 (26) | 64.52 CA/60 (2) | 2.07 xGF/60 (26) | 2.44 xGA/60 (6)

On the penultimate day of the regular season (let’s, uh, not count Sunday), this is my final Grind Down of the year. Thanks for reading along, and I hope that you have found value in these articles. They call it the Grind Down for a reason as we have broken down a lot of details for a lot of games. Use the principles discussed in the playoff pools, but this is where I must leave you, Grinder. insert You’re Free Now Genie meme.

Oh hey look it’s another small slate and we get the joy of the Senators. At least they’re not facing the Buffalo Sabres again. The Sens have a tough matchup against the Penguins, though Pittsburgh’s recent form of late is questionable. Basically they have struggled to suppress high-danger shot attempts and have received questionable goaltending lately. That’s been their main weakness, otherwise they have been solid at 5v5.

Ottawa is likely to be without Erik Karlsson again and Mark Stone was shut down for the remaining season. So we are back to one reliable line. You can chase goals from Ottawa’s secondary scorers if you’re acceptable to major variance. Ottawa as a whole are one of the worst offenses in the league. They struggle to generate shot attempts and scoring chances and have one of the worst expected goal rates at 5v5.

The only true reliable line that the Senators have consists of Matt Duchene, Mike Hoffman, and young Colin White. Hopefully they will match out against the Crosby line at 5v5 as that would enhance their chance of seeing some quality scoring chances and shot attempts. The Penguins aren’t a great power play matchup and while this line may seem cute for GPPs, they are a lower floor group.

Not only do the secondary scoring lines come with a low floor but their ceiling is lower as well. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Bobby Ryan, and Alex Burrows? Meh. Very much meh. Zack Smith is ok, I guess, as is Magnus Paajarvi but this Ottawa system doesn’t leave a whole lot of offense on the table.

Senators Special Teams Outlook
Ottawa does not get a very good power play matchup tonight. Pittsburgh only goes shorthanded at an average rate compared to their peers, but they have been one of the best defensive teams on the penalty kill. They limit all of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts extremely well. With Ottawa a weak power play team and missing their blueline quarterback, there isn’t much to see here.

Senators Goaltending Outlook