NHL Grind Down: Friday, December 22nd

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-12-22 19:30:47 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

Philadelphia Flyers					Buffalo Sabres
			Brian Elliott					Robin Lehner
			Record					Record
			15-12-7					8-19-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.82	2.79	20.00	76.15	Team Stats	2.12	3.32	12.75	82.52

Flyers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 54.19 CF/60 (26) | 55.81 CA/60 (24) | 2.17 xGF/60 (18) | 2.11 xGA/60 (24)

We could be in for something of a low event game in Buffalo tonight. While the Flyers have a very strong top line, the secondary scoring has been underwhelming. The Flyers aren’t running a high event system and the Sabres aren’t either. Buffalo’s defensive ability may be limited on an individual basis but as a team they have decent numbers.

In most formats we’ll want to keep Philly exposure to the usual suspects: the top line of Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier, and Wayne Simmonds as well as Jakub Voracek and Shayne Gostisbehere on the blueline. On the second line Voracek has put Michael Raffl and Valterri Filppula on the map for the time being, but in a low event environment the non-Voracek second liners lack upside and a floor. None of the other secondary scorers drum up must interest.

The top line is dynamic even if they tend to skew defensive. They’ll likely struggle to see high volume of quality shot attempts and scoring chances, so even on a short slate some caution is recommended.

Flyers Special Teams Outlook
Buffalo has done a good job keeping their skaters out of the sin bin, going shorthanded just over three times per game on average (3.03). While shorthanded, the Sabres have allowed a good rate of overall shot attempts but not so much with scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts. It’s not a terrible matchup for the Flyers’ power play as they have excelled in generating shot attempts, so there should be plenty of quantity at their disposal. Getting the puck to the net is the name of the game, so it’s a good first step should Buffalo play undisciplined hockey.

Flyers Goaltending Outlook
Brian Elliott had been playing quite well before back to back meh outings, but he has a great spot to get back on track in Buffalo. Best of all, he’s probably going to have lower ownership due to his last outing. Philadelphia has been strong defensively this year and have kept shot attempt quantity and quality down, leading to an impressive expected goals allowed rate at 5v5 that ranks eighth best in the league. Buffalo’s offense, as you may have heard, has not been good, and they enter with the league’s worst expected goal rate. Elliott’s cost is quite fair on FanDuel and is fine on DraftKings, making him a nice play on both sites.