NHL Grind Down: Friday, February 16th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-16 19:19:29 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets

Philadelphia Flyers					Columbus Blue Jackets
			Michal Neuvirth					Sergei Bobrovsky
			Record					Record
			28-19-10					29-24-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.95	2.84	21.65	75.00	Team Stats	2.60	2.77	14.72	75.68

Flyers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 54.47 CF/60 (26) | 55.19 CA/60 (27) | 2.19 xGF/60 (20) | 2.09 xGA/60 (24)

While Philadelphia’s year-to-date offensive numbers don’t jump off the page, the Flyers have a dominant top line, some weapons on the second, and a powerful power play. They get a favorable matchup to improve upon their shot generation numbers. Columbus’s 5v5 defense has been vulnerable on the year, and that has been especially true of late. In the last month, Columbus has been among the top ten most generous defenses in allowing shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts.

From the Flyers, we’ll want to limit our exposure to the forward group to the top six. The top line has been magnificent at 5v5 this year. Led by Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux and Travis Konecny have been getting it done over the last month plus. They are creating close to 16 high-danger shot attempts per hour and have an impressive 55.41% CF%. Giroux and Couturier work together on the top power play unit, and while Konecny misses out on that favorable draw, he provides a nice value seeing as how he has been about a point-per-game over the last 20.

Philly’s second line contains their two other useful forwards, Wayne Simmonds and Jakub Voracek. They’re centered by struggling rookie Nolan Patrick, so the full line stack isn’t quite as endearing. Still, it’s hard to overlook their numbers together. In a smaller sample (~90) minutes they’re creating about 16 high-danger shot attempts per hour together. Simmonds and Voracek work together on the top power play unit and this line should come with lower ownership in tournaments.

The Jackets don’t necessarily hard match lines and defensive pairings against opponents, but their top line (Dubois) should skew their 5v5 attention to the Couturier line. Columbus’s group has been strong defensively, so it’s not a perfect matchup. It also increases the intrigue for the second line in GPPs.

Flyers Special Teams Outlook
The Flyers have had a dynamic power play this year, producing a good volume and quality of shot attempts and scoring chances. More often than not, they can find success in most matchups. Tonight’s draw isn’t terrible, with the biggest issue being that the Jackets don’t go shorthanded all that often. When on the ice, the penalty killing group has been slightly above the median in allowing shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger attempts.

Flyers Goaltending Outlook
With Brian Elliott hurt, Michal Neuvirth should get another draw in once again. He’s been a boom-or-bust option, and when he’s off, he ruins lineups. Over his last five starts, he has three games with four or more goals allowed and two with just one goal allowed each. As you may have heard, the Blue Jackets have been putting up massive shots on goal totals over the past week or so. They have 50+ shots on goal in three straight. The Flyers have impressive defensive metrics, but Neuvirth is in a tough spot. The volume points will be nice, but there is good chance for a blow up.

Blue Jackets Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 61.62 CF/60 (6) | 58.1 CA/60 (17) | 2.57 xGF/60 (2) | 2.39 xGA/60 (8)

It’s become mesmerizing to watch the Blue Jackets pile up shots game after game. In the spirit of the Olympics, you can pace their shot rates by the minute and compare it to the prior game to see if they keep adding up the shots. The massive shot totals haven’t just been products of low volume efforts, either. Columbus has three lines activating at the moment, so they are piling up pressure.

Keep in mind that the Blue Jackets’ opponents during their run lately haven’t been of the highest quality. They’ve played the Islanders and Capitals twice each, as well as Toronto and New Jersey (in Columbus). All of those teams, especially New York and Washington, have struggled to suppress attempts.

That hasn’t been the case for the Flyers. They’ve produced strong defensive numbers all season long, and they have some serious matchup roadblocks. The good news is that Jackets don’t always use their top line versus opposing top lines because the Couturier line for Philly is extremely good defensively.