NHL Grind Down: Friday, February 23rd

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-23 22:04:39 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Minnesota Wild at New York Rangers

Minnesota Wild					New York Rangers
			Devan Dubnyk					Henrik Lundqvist
			Record					Record
			33-20-7					27-29-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.95	2.83	20.90	80.95	Team Stats	2.82	3.12	20.77	82.35

Wild Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 52.55 CF/60 (30) | 59.68 CA/60 (9) | 2.10 xGF/60 (25) | 1.9 xGA/60 (31)

After getting a stingy Devil defense in New Jersey last night, the Wild get a much friendlier matchup for the offense in MSG. The Rangers are in shutdown mode as they have waived the white flag on their season and the next few after. They’ve been a bad defensive team for years, and that hasn’t changed this year. Though they have a slew of new, young blueliners to replace their regularly ineffective defenders, the system is still an issue here. In the last month, the Rangers aren’t the worst defensive team but they still have top ten/top five rates of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-daner shot attempts allowed on a per hour basis at 5v5.

Though the Wild have very disappointing offensive metrics, their top six is useful and has proven to be a capable bunch. A style of play that doesn’t necessarily enhance a dominant offensive effort does lead to flat performances, so despite the favorable matchup the ceiling isn’t as high as it could be.

The top line of Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund, and Jason Zucker should have no issues pushing play here. This is a group has produced around 13 high-danger shot attempts and 30 scoring chances per hour at 5v5, so they are effective. There’s a good chance this line flies under the radar tonight with the game in New York and some other popular offenses on the slate.

Eric Staal, Nino Niederreiter, and Tyler Ennis don’t have the underlying numbers this year, but historically Nino has driven play quite well and Staal hasn’t dropped off much. Ennis is a different story as he is out of place in the top six, but Staal and Nino have been good enough to pull up lower end linemates before. Ideally this line would have a better foundation of shot generation metrics to fall back on, and they also but at least they shouldn’t deploy against the Zibanejad line at 5v5. Thus, consider Staal and Nino as secondary options.

Wild Special Teams Outlook
The Rangers are a nice team to pick on most nights because they struggle defensively at 5v5 and they aren’t much better on the penalty kill. New York has been oddly good at limiting shot attempts in the aggregate, but they’ve struggled big time specifically with scoring chances and attempts from high-danger areas. Both of these rates are among the ten highest in the league on a per-hour basis. We again see the Wild with offensive numbers that aren’t anything special, but they are better than they are at 5v5. On the power play the Wild do have the ninth best rate of high-danger shot attempts generated.

Wild Goaltending Outlook
As Alex Stalock played in Newark last night, Devan Dubnyk will be back between the pipes tonight. He’ll get a floundering Ranger team that is checked out, doesn’t drive play well, and could sit two of their better forwards as they wait to find a trade partner. New York has shown the ability to put up a good rate of quality shot attempts despite low overall volume, so it’s not a perfect match, but Minnesota’s defense should be up for the challenge and Dubnyk is a fine play tonight.

Rangers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 52.77 CF/60 (28) | 63.5 CA/60 (3) | 2.42 xGF/60 (9) | 2.62 xGA/60 (1)

The Rangers have gone on the PA and announced to their patrons that the store will be closing soon. It’s been a tough year for the team in virtually every way, shape, and form. Injuries to key forwards poked a pinhole in the last lifeboat of the season and ship is sunk. Beyond giving some time to young blueliners and Henrik Lundqvist being great, there aren’t many things to cheer for.

New York doesn’t drive play well and they haven’t all season. They’ve relied upon their ability to spring rushes and pop shots from the high-danger parts of the ice. Unfortunately for the Blue Shirts tonight, the Wild defend these types of attempts quite well. Even though their metrics deteriorate away from the Land o’ Lakes, the Wild are a strong defensive team. The Rangers also have the bad luck of getting Dubnyk tonight rather than Stalock.

With Rick Nash in the thick of trade discussions, he was scratched last night and there is a good chance he sits again tonight. That takes away a big weapon from the top line, which has otherwise been quite good this year. Last night, Jimmy Vesey took Nash’s spot with Mika Zibanejad and Pavel Buchnevich. Vesey is a clear downgrade from Nash, which also impacts Zibanejad and Buch. Despite their strong shot generation rates, a matchup with the Koivu line is likely and the matchup isn’t great.

The rest of the Rangers have an unfavorable matchup as well, and their upside is lower than that of the top line anyway. The line of Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello, and J.T. Miller is the second best option for offense, but they’ll likely see the Staal line at 5v5. The goal upside/finishing ability isn’t really there for this group anyway.

Rangers Special Teams Outlook
The Wild go shorthanded at a high rate (3.6 times per game), but that’s about the only favorable part of the special teams’ matchup for the Rangers. New York’s power play is nothing special, so they are likely to struggle against a penalty kill group that tend to allow high rate of shot attempts, but are the best keeping them away from high-danger areas.

Rangers Goaltending Outlook
Henrik Lundqvist deserves such a better fate, and it must be highly discouraging for him to see the team start to tear it down. The Wild aren’t a great offense so there is a chance that they fail to capitalize on the poor Ranger defense. Lundqvist only comes with some GPP appeal because it’s a short slate and he’s been good, but there is clear blowup risk here.

Wild Elite Plays: Mikael Granlund, Eric Staal, Matt Dumba
Wild Secondary Plays: Nino Niederreiter, Jason Zucker, Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon
Stackability: Green / Yellow
Goaltending: Green

Rangers Elite Plays: None
Rangers Secondary Plays: Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich
Stackability: Red
Goaltending: Orange