NHL Grind Down: Friday, February 9th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-09 19:06:41 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals

Columbus Blue Jackets					Washington Capitals
			Sergei Bobrovsky					Braden Holtby
			Record					Record
			27-22-4					31-17-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.51	2.75	14.09	75.18	Team Stats	3.06	2.89	20.73	78.98

Blue Jackets Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 59.88 CF/60 (14) | 57.83 CA/60 (18) | 2.47 xGF/60 (3) | 2.35 xGA/60 (9)

Though the Jackets ultimately fell short on home ice against this same opponent two nights ago, it wasn’t for lack of trying. The offense did their part in generating plenty of shot attempts and opportunities, but ultimately failing to light the lamp enough. That’s the setup that will payoff in the long run.

Thus, this remains a favorable matchup for the Blue Jackets. The Capitals are struggling defensively, allowing an elevated number of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts. Columbus’s offense is slowing a bit but they are still productive, and in fact, they are due for a little positive regression in the goal scoring department.

Even on home ice, the Capitals don’t really have a whole lot they can throw at the Jackets from a matchup perspective. This puts the top line of Alex Wennberg, Cam Atkinson, and Artemi Panarin on the high-end of tonight’s scale. They generate play well and Atkinson is getting that shot volume back. They’ll likely primarily skate against the Backstrom line at 5v5. Wennberg isn’t a high volume shooter and is struggling, but then again so was Pierre-Luc Dubois.

Dubois will move down and center a line with Oliver Bjorkstrand and Nick Foligno. Bjorkstrand too is starting to activate a bit, but Dubois is struggling and though Foligno is showing signs of life, is fair to wonder what he really has to offer at this point. Brandon Dubinsky gets Boone Jenner and Josh Anderson, two solid shooters, though Dubinsky isn’t a fantasy relevant center. Jenner is due to go on a run as his shooting percentage craters while the shots are still there.

Blue Jackets Special Teams Outlook
The Columbus power play has been really bad this year. As in, worst in the league in generating shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts on a per hour basis while on the power play. The Capitals are a friendly matchup for opposing power plays, so this should be a favorable spot for Columbus. Washington has defensive ratios all within the top ten highest in the league while shorthanded.

Blue Jackets Goaltending Outlook
The Capitals’ offense has been a bit better at home, where they’re closer to middle of the pack than far below it in generating things like scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts. Columbus’s defense metrics are middle of the road lately, and on the year they haven’t been worse on the road than at home. In theory, Sergei Bobrovsky shouldn’t have an overly difficult matchup, but with the game on the road his form in question, Bobrovsky is a bit risky.

Capitals Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 55.28 CF/60 (23) | 59.87 CA/60 (6) | 2.12 xGF/60 (24) | 2.51 xGA/60 (3)

The Capitals have been a bottom of the barrel offense at 5v5 for most of this year, but at least for their benefit, things have been a bit better at home. In Washington the Caps have been more of a mediocre than bad offense, which they mostly are on the road from the perspective of shot and scoring chance generation.

Columbus’s defense isn’t a juggernaut, and they certainly have their moments of weakness. Since January 1, however, their numbers have been a bit inflated. In those dozen-plus games, the Jackets are sitting just outside the top ten for most shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts allowed per hour at 5v5.

Barry Trotz has reunited his top line of Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, and Tom Wilson. We saw this line play dominant hockey early in the year, with Wilson having a positive impact defensively and allowing the other two to do their thing. Wilson’s defensive numbers have lagged a bit lately but this line should still be productive — Ovi and Backstrom have plenty of chemistry. You know what you’re getting with those two.

Evgeny Kuznetsov will work with T.J. Oshie and Jakub Vrana at 5v5, another reunion in the top six. This line has struggled a bit more defensively but they have some decent offensive metrics, most notably high-danger shot attempts for (12.33/60). As usual, we’ll still get some power play correlation thanks to Kuznetsov-Oshie skating on the top unit.

Capitals Special Teams Outlook
Columbus has really struggled to escape their penalties without allowing a power play goal, as their PK rate of 75.7% is not impressive. It’s probably been for the best for them that they don’t go shorthanded very often, averaging just 2.6 times shorthanded per game on average. Washington’s power play hasn’t produced a high volume of shot attempts or scoring chances, so there is a fair amount of name brand premium in play. Columbus has struggled with overall shot attempts and scoring chances allowed while on the penalty kill.

Capitals Goaltending Outlook
With the team in front of him playing such bad defense, Braden Holtby finds himself on the risky list more often than not these days. Columbus has enough in their forward group to capitalize on Washington’s weaknesses. Despite their shot attempts and scoring chances per hour coming in around middle of the pack, the Jackets still maintain an elite expected goal ratio. Holtby still carries name-brand premium on FD, so his cost may not be worth it given the risks.

Blue Jackets Elite Plays: Cam Atkinson, Artemi Panarin, Seth Jones
Blue Jackets Secondary Plays: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Josh Anderson, Boone Jenner, Zach Werenski
Stackability: Yellow / Green
Goaltending: Orange / Yellow

Capitals Elite Plays: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson
Capitals Secondary Plays: Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, Jakub Vrana
Stackability: Yellow / Orange
Goaltending: Orange