NHL Grind Down: Friday, January 12th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-01-12 19:15:26 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):
Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Vancouver Canucks at Columbus Blue Jackets

Vancouver Canucks					Columbus Blue Jackets
			Jacob Markstrom					Sergei Bobrovsky
			Record					Record
			16-21-6					25-17-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.58	3.26	20.69	78.00	Team Stats	2.64	2.68	12.31	79.66

Canucks Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 52.62 CF/60 (29) | 59.25 CA/60 (13) | 2.01 xGF/60 (28) | 2.3 xGA/60 (15)

The rested Canucks will face off with a Blue Jacket team that didn’t look all that inspired in Buffalo last night. The Jackets are an inconsistent team, but overall we’ve seen their defense struggle a bit with quality attempts allowed. Unfortunately the Canucks don’t generate such attempts at an impressive level, so their upside is limited even as they (likely) avoid Sergei Bobrovsky.

Vancouver’s top scoring line contains rookie phenom Brock Boeser. Not surprising as Boeser has converted his shot attempts at a ridiculous rate this year. He, along with Sam Gagner and Thomas Vanek, have underlying numbers to support the goal production even if Boeser’s shooting rate normalizes. They’ve done a good job generating 5v5 high-danger shot attempts on a per hour basis (14.37) so there’s a chance they can exploit weakness in the Columbus zone. They are a nice tournament option on the smaller slate.

The other options for the Canucks come with low floors. Daniel Sedin has been finding some success of late, but he isn’t the high-end goal scorer he once was. His brother Henrik Sedin has virtually no floor as he doesn’t shoot. They are now skating with Markus Granlund on the top line with Loui Eriksson down to the third line. This line sticks together on the top power play unit, but the matchup there isn’t great (more below). Overall this unit is a low floor, limited upside line.

Thankfully it’s a big enough slate where the deeper cuts from Vancouver aren’t really required. Sven Baertschi is back in action, but he’s working in a bottom line capacity with limited time on ice as he rounds back into form.

Canucks Special Teams Outlook
While Columbus’s penalty killers haven’t been elite in limiting attempts and chances to opposing power plays, the Jackets don’t go shorthanded often and the Canucks don’t have a high end power play. Vancouver is a bottom three team in generating both shot attempts and scoring chances, though they have done a good job (comparatively) in generating high-danger shot attempts.

Canucks Goaltending Outlook
The Blue Jacket offense has been very hit or miss lately. They have been more like a middle of the road or average offense over the past month of play or so. At the same time, the Canucks defense has been slumping and allowing many more quality attempts than they had been. Jacob Markstrom is settling down after a rough stretch the past few weeks, and Anders Nilsson is enduring his own slump at the moment. Neither goalie is very safe tonight against a Columbus offense that will have a little hop in their step after struggling in Buffalo last night.

Blue Jackets Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 60 CF/60 (12) | 56.78 CA/60 (22) | 2.5 xGF/60 (4) | 2.36 xGA/60 (9)

The Jackets still have a high-end expected goal rate, but their shot attempt and scoring chance production at 5v5 has been closer to the middle of the pack than the top end. Thankfully they draw a favorable matchup on home ice tonight, an especially welcomed draw after struggling to score in Buffalo last night.

The Canucks defense started the season off as a low event, slow pace team. That has changed as the season has worn on, and over their last 20 or so games compared to the first 20 they have been a defense to pick on. They are struggling to stop shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts, and goaltending has been off.

Columbus’s top line of Artemi Panarin, Josh Anderson, and Pierre-Luc Dubois have been strong at 5v5 and they should be able to exploit the matchup tonight. They drive play well and create quality chances in addition to strong overall shot attempt volume. Anderson individually is a volume shooter and even Panarin has been getting more shots to the net. There’s a lot to like about this line, especially when paired with either of the highly effective puck moving blueliners Seth Jones and Zach Werenski.

As anticipated, Alex Wennberg made his return to the lineup last night slotted between Nick Foligno and Boone Jenner. Though Jenner and Foligno — and Wennberg, really — aren’t having great years, they remain the second best scoring option for the Jackets. With Brandon Dubinsky out of the lineup Columbus probably won’t use this line in a pure defensive role, and that probably wouldn’t matter much tonight. This line doesn’t have a great floor because all three skaters are underachieving this year, but least Foligno and Jenner are starting to get pucks to the net. Wennberg doesn’t shoot much and figures to have fatigue issues playing back-to-back after his time off.

As noted in yesterday’s Grind Down, the Columbus bottom six isn’t terribly exciting, especially with Sonny Milano out of the lineup. The aforementioned Jones and Werenski are solid blueline plays; Jones have been getting the puck to the net like crazy and is putting up the numbers many associate with Werenski. Both play on the top power play unit, for whatever that’s worth.

Blue Jackets Special Teams Outlook
Much like their early season 5v5 defensive form, the Canuck penalty kill keeps low ratios for shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts allowed. This isn’t good news for the Columbus power play which needs all the help it can get. They remain the worst team in the league generating shot attempts and scoring chances, and third worst in high-danger shot attempts. Third worst: It’s not last!

Blue Jackets Goaltending Outlook
With Sergei Bobrovsky getting the nod in Buffalo last night, Joonas Korpisalo should be between the pipes after being recalled from the AHL where he got some extra work in between games. Korpisalo hasn’t been good this year in his limited action, posting a .904 all situation save percentage in nine games. He’s playing behind a somewhat susceptible defense, but luckily for him his opponent tonight isn’t well equipped to take advantage. He’s a nice low cost flyer in tournaments as the win bonus should be able to cover up his mistakes.

Canucks Elite Plays: Brock Boeser
Canucks Secondary Plays: Sam Gagner, Thomas Vanek, Daniel Sedin, Alexander Edler
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Orange / Red

Blue Jackets Elite Plays: Artemi Panarin, Josh Anderson, Seth Jones
Blue Jackets Secondary Plays: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nick Foligno, Boone Jenner, Zach Werenski
Stackability: Yellow
Goaltending: Yellow