NHL Grind Down: Friday, January 19th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-01-19 20:03:45 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):
Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers

Vegas Golden Knights					Florida Panthers
			Malcom Subban					James Reimer
			Record					Record
			30-11-3					18-19-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.33	2.67	17.02	82.03	Team Stats	2.79	3.21	15.91	79.85

Golden Knights Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 60.63 CF/60 (9) | 56 CA/60 (24) | 2.32 xGF/60 (12) | 2.09 xGA/60 (26)

The Golden Knights were up to their old (?) tricks last night in Tampa, and though it’s a quick turnaround, they get a better matchup tonight. the Panthers defense is not exactly a shutdown unit, and they are a team that can allow a good deal of opposing shot attempts to find their way to the net.

It’s tough to say how the Panthers will use their top line, which has been good defensively this year. For one thing, the Panthers have had just one home game in calendar 2018. For another, the team doesn’t always hard match. Some nights the Barkov line takes the toughest assignments, some nights it’s a blend, and sometimes the Trocheck line does the heavy lifting.

The specter of the Barkov line should give some pause to the top line, but Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith drive play well enough to overcome the matchup. Given that the second line scored last night and James Neal absorbs most of the toughest minutes on the road, Marchessault’s line should get the Trocheck line. Also, please note that we have some serious, serious, heavy duty #RevengeGame narrative in this one given that the Panthers thought little of Marchessault and let him go via expansion.

Neal, David Perron, and Erik Haula continue to get it done even if their underlying numbers aren’t great. They could very well draw the Barkov line tonight given that they tend to see top defensive assignments on the road. The Marchessault line is more often than not the more explosive line to look to on the road, but on a three game slate facing a defense that struggles to suppress shot attempts, this line is certainly in play. They also see a bit more power play time, which as we’ll discuss in a minute, is a good thing tonight.

Given how the Panthers fall off a bit outside of their top six and it’s a short slate, some tournament consideration should be given to Alex Tuch and Brendan Leipsic on the third line. No, they do not come with a high floor or ceiling, but they are cheap fill ins with at least a little upside in this spot. They drive play well and both have favorable individual shot attempt rates. (Note Leipsic has been sick and couldn’t make a go of it last night.) Tuch, in any event, is a fine cheapo one-off.

Vegas’s low dollar defenders are also interesting in the matchup. Shea Theodore is the top option, with Nate Schmidt and Colin Miller secondary plays, and Brad Hunt a punt play.

Golden Knights Special Teams Outlook
The Golden Knights have a golden opportunity with their power play matchup tonight. The Panthers have struggled defensively all season while killing penalties, allowing the third most shot attempts and scoring chances, as well as the most high-danger shot attempts, per hour while shorthanded. Vegas can roll out up to three power play units, so everyone gets a piece of the action.

Golden Knights Goaltending Outlook
With Marc-Andre Fleury getting the start last night, look for Malcolm Subban to draw back in tonight. While waiting for regression to hit, Subban continues to defy the law of averages. The Panthers aren’t a powerful offense and Knights have been good defensively this year, so this is a spot where Subban may continue to do well. He’s a bit risky for cash games, but is in play in GPPs.

Panthers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 57.26 CF/60 (17) | 60.36 CA/60 (6) | 2.2.2 xGF/60 (17) | 2.33 xGA/60 (12)

The Panthers come out of their bye week with a tough matchup. Vegas has been a good defensive team this year, and they really have shown that it isn’t luck. They’ve kept shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts down all year. Even away from home ice they’ve been able to slow some good offenses.

At least the Panther catch them playing back-to-back in an early timezone. For the most part the Panthers have been a one line team, with the main source of production coming from Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Evgenii Dadonov. Vincent Trocheck also contributes, but he’s skating on a line with Connor Brickley and Radim Vrbata. Yawn.

Hopefully the Panthers continue the trend of teams using their best defensive line against the Neal line. That would be a much more favorable 5v5 draw for the Barkov line as the Marchessault line is a matchup problem. Florida’s top group slots in as a secondary option tonight due the overall unimpressive matchup. Trocheck is a volume based one off, as usual, but the rest of the Panther forwards are highly suspect.

Panthers Special Teams Outlook
This is a good strength versus strenght matchup, though that doesn’t really mean of anything good for DFS purposes. The Knights don’t go shorthanded very often, and when they are killing penalties, they have done a good job suppressing shot attempts and scoring chances. Florida’s power play has been quite strong, however, and they generate shot attempts and chances well.

Panthers Goaltending Outlook
James Reimer has been fantastic for the Panthers since taking over as the starter with Roberto Luongo hurt. After a rocky start, he’s been quite good working behind a sketchy defense and a high volume of shots faced, posting some monster fantasy scores along the way. The Knights have not been a good team to pick on with opposing netminders. Their offense has been coming in waves, and though the year-to-date numbers aren’t elite, they are still indicative of a functional offense. Given the other options on the slate, Reimer certainly has tournament appeal, but there is a risk the defense in front of him fails.

Golden Knights Elite Plays: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, James Neal, Shea Theodore
Golden Knights Secondary Plays: Reilly Smith, David Perron, Colin Miller, Nate Schmidt
Stackability: Green
Goaltending: Yellow

Panthers Elite Plays: Aleksander Barkov
Panthers Secondary Plays: Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov, Vincent Trocheck
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Orange / Yellow