NHL Grind Down: Friday, January 5th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-01-05 19:52:52 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders

Pittsburgh Penguins					New York Islanders
			Tristan Jarry					Jaroslav Halak
			Record					Record
			20-19-3					20-17-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.78	3.12	26.03	81.51	Team Stats	3.38	3.58	20.59	74.59

Penguins Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 60.05 CF/60 (10) | 57.44 CA/60 (18) | 2.36 xGF/60 (12) | 2.33 xGA/60 (13)

The Penguins PDO fueled shame spiral continues as the offense just cannot get any traction. Despite having some strong underlying numbers, the Penguins have failed to realize their good fortunes. Tonight they have a matchup that should theoretically help them get their actual versus expected numbers closer. Their recent unreliability should also keep ownership level downs in tournaments.

Sidney Crosby hasn’t been productive of late and his individual shot rate is certainly concerning. He’s also skating with Dominik Simon and Conor Sheary, so he isn’t playing between one of Pittsburgh’s highly skilled wingers. At this point, until the talented center has a “show me” game his price remains an issue for hopping on the bandwagon. He’ll turn it around, but at least on FD it’s hard to buy low when the price isn’t right.

While Crosby doesn’t have much help on his wings, the same can’t be said for Evgeni Malgin. He skated between Phil Kessel and Patric Hornqvist last game, about as good as it could get. Hopefully this line draws the Tavares line at 5v5 as that is certainly a winnable matchup. If Tavares works against Crosby and this line has to deal with the Barzal line, they are a bit less exciting. Thankfully the Barzal line doesn’t usually stick to just one line at 5v5, at least this group should get away from them a little bit. The fact that all three stick together on the power play unit (albeit less than usual these days) helps alleviate some of the concern.

Penguins Special Teams Outlook
New York’s penalty kill is going to struggle tonight against Pittsburgh’s power play team. The Islanders have really struggled to suppress shot attempts and scoring chances, though they have been good keeping high-danger shot attempts down. That almost seems inconsequential as the Penguins will get the chance to fire at will. Kris Letang still hasn’t reclaimed the sole spot on the top power play unit. Not only is he still sharing time with Justin Schultz, but even Jamie Oleksiak is getting a run.

Penguins Goaltending Outlook
With Matt Murray starting — and struggling again — last night, Tristan Jarry should be between the pipes for the Pens. Jarry got a break after being nicked up in his last start. He enters with a .922 all-situation save percentage in 13 games, and has been in good form. New York’s offense is a concern with Pittsburgh’s defense continuing to be an issue. They’ve struggled all year and though they’ve done a better job limiting overall shot attempts, scoring chances and quality attempt are still on the high side.

Islanders Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 57.34 CF/60 (17) | 60.96 CA/60 (4) | 2.3 xGF/60 (13) | 2.41 xGA/60 (7)

New York’s offensive numbers are middle of the pack at this point, but their top six is a known quantity and they have a favorable matchup on tap. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled all season, and though they have done better limiting shot attempts overall lately, they are still a team that has allowed a fair amount of scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts.

The top line of John Tavares, Anders Lee, and Josh Bailey are always in play when they are on home ice and that is certainly the case tonight. They figure to see a fair amount of time against the Crosby line for Pittsburgh. That isn’t the nightmare matchup it used to be, especially with Patric Hornqvist one the second line for Pittsburgh.

New York’s second line should see a bit of time against the Malkin line, but will also get some time on ice against Pittsburgh’s exploitable bottom six. They should dominate those minutes, however limited they may be. Mathew Barzal, Andrew Ladd, and Jordan Eberle have been an elite trio this year, and they come at very affordable prices across the industry.

Islanders Special Teams Outlook
The Penguins don’t represent a favorable special teams matchup tonight. Though they go shorthanded an average of 3.6 times per game, Penguin penalty killers have been outstanding at limiting shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts. New York’s power play has been productive but there is a good chance that they find little room to work with on the advantage tonight.

Islanders Goaltending Outlook
Jaroslav Halak will be in the cage for the Islanders tonight after Thomas Greiss was lit up by the Flyers in Philadelphia last night. Halak has been struggling as the Islander defense has, and tonight’s matchup doesn’t setup well for him. Though the Penguins are maddeningly inconsistent on offense, the underlying numbers show they are the victims of bad luck. A matchup against a weak defense could lead to a corrective action night for Pittsburgh, and that combined with Halak’s form pretty much keep him off the radar.

Penguins Elite Plays: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist
Penguins Secondary Plays: Sidney Crosby, Conor Sheary, Kris Letang, Justin Schultz
Stackability: Green
Goaltending: Orange

Islanders Elite Plays: John Tavares, Anders Lee, Josh Bailey
Islanders Secondary Plays: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle, Nick Leddy
Stackability: Green
Goaltending: Red