NHL Grind Down: Friday, March 2nd

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-03-03 02:41:30 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders

Montreal Canadiens					New York Islanders
			Charlie Lindgren					Jaroslav Halak
			Record					Record
			24-29-10					29-28-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.51	3.02	21.28	77.27	Team Stats	3.20	3.53	20.81	74.32

Canadiens Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 61.02 CF/60 (9) | 60 CA/60 (8) | 2.39 xGF/60 (11) | 2.1 xGA/60 (3)

It will be a rematch from two nights ago when the Islanders invaded Montreal (unsuccessfully). The Habs potted three against the weak Islander defense, indicating their offensives woes are not quite healed. Montreal continues to do the legwork as their rates for shot and scoring chance generation remain quite strong. That shooting percentage should start to improve, though it’s also fair to say there are some finishing concerns on the roster.

As always, whenever the Islanders are on the schedule you’ll want to take a look at the offense opposing them. New York continues to bleed out shot attempts and scoring chances at 5v5. Over the last month, they have allowed the second most overall shot attempts, with the highest rates of scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts in particular allowed on a per hour basis. They are #bad.

Until Montreal officially hops on that positive regression train, their shooting issues will continue to make them risky plays. As mentioned in Wednesday’s Grind Down, this is the type of matchup that will help them along. Jonathan Drouin showed up last game, but Max Pacioretty mind-bogglingly did not record a shot on goal. How does that happen? In any event, Drouin, Patches, and Artturi Lehkonen still have a very favorable draw tonight and they are the best overall line for the Habs. The Islanders don’t tend to match their lines strictly at 5v5 at home, and there aren’t any matchup concerns anyway given how bad this defense has been playing.

Beyond the top line, we have a collection of individually interesting players scattered in some less-than-interesting lines. Alex Galchenyuk and Phillip Danault work on the second line, with Charles Hudon, while Brendan Gallagher toils on the third line with Jacob De La Rose and Paul Byron. Nikita Scherbak is still down on the fourth line. It winds up being a whole lot of meh, with the Galchenyuk line being the most complete secondary option.

Canadiens Special Teams Outlook
The odds of a high scoring game in general and a nice showing from the Canadiens in particular is aided by the fact New York has struggled while shorthanded. On the penalty kill this year, they have the second highest CA/60 and have allowed the most scoring chances per hour. Their high-danger shot attempts allowed a curiously low. In any event, this is an A+ matchup all around for the Habs on the top power play unit (Patches, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Drouin, and Jeff Petry).

Canadiens Goaltending Outlook
We liked Antti Niemi in tournaments Wednesday, and even though the venue swings to Brooklyn, Niemi remains a solid play. Of course, it’s now a nine game slate so there are other options out there. But Niemi’s ugly year-to-date numbers are depressed by those horrific early season outings he had. He’s been fine to good with the Habs, and he’s working behind a defense that has snuffed out quality scoring chances and shot attempts against. New York’s offensive numbers as a whole remain pedestrian, so budget minded GPPers can look to strike gold twice with Niemi tonight. Update: Charlie Lindgren will tag in tonight. He’s been pretty good with two exceptions for Montreal, posting a .933 across nine appearances. He’s not any worse or better than Niemi, really.

Islanders Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 56.62 CF/60 (20) | 63.3 CA/60 (3) | 2.23 xGF/60 (18) | 2.51 xGA/60 (24)

The Islanders struck out against these same Habs two nights ago, and now they will look to have a different outcome in front of their home crowd and the Kia SUV. The matchup remains a tough one, as New York’s offense hasn’t been productive as a whole. In the last month, they sit close to the bottom of the league in generating shot attempts and scoring chances, and are simply middle of the pack in high-danger attempts generated.