NHL Grind Down: Friday, November 10th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-11-10 19:37:28 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

Jump to Page 1 2

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche

Ottawa Senators					Colorado Avalanche
			Craig Anderson					Semyon Varlamov
			Record					Record
			6-3-5					8-6-0
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.57	3.07	20.00	80.49	Team Stats	3.36	3.36	19.30	78.57

Senators Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj) (14 games): 53.38 CF/60 (27) | 63.06 CA/60 (5) | 2.13 xGF/60 (22) | 2.35 xGA/60 (15)

This game will take place in Sweden. The Senators picked up a huge boost on offense from these very Avalanche. As you’ve no doubt heard, Matt Duchene plays for Ottawa now. He’ll take over for Kyle Turris, who was shipped to Nashville. The overall move is close to neutral for Ottawa as a whole but big for Duchene individually.

He’ll look to get his new team a win against his old one. It’s a favorable matchup for the Senators, as Colorado remains a defensively poor team. They have a top ten xGA/60, and they are a floor matchup due to the shot volume they allow through. Also, their possession numbers are sure to fall with Duchene removed from the equation.

Outside of Duchene being a big winner, Mike Hoffman looks like he’ll get in on the windfall. He’s up from the third line and skating next to Duchene, along with Zack Smith. Duchene and Hoffman are a very intriguing duo. Think how well Hoffman played in the third line with sub-par centers. Duchene, meanwhile, was a lighthouse along the dark and rocky coast that is Colorado’s possession game.

Ottawa will maintain their second line, so this suddenly becomes a two line team for DFS purposes. Derick Brassard, Mark Stone, and Ryan Dzingel have formed a capable scoring line for Ottawa this year. They’ve been strong driving play and generating shot attempts, and Stone is a good goal scorer. In a favorable matchup, this line is certainly in play. They are likely to carry lower ownership compared to the shiny new toy line.

Especially if stacking either of the top two lines, Erik Karlsson is a slam-dunk play. In addition to the plus matchup, we get some narrative at play with a game in his home country. He’s a strong correlation play with the top six or as a standalone option if paying up on the blueline. He’s a cash game staple.

Senators Special Teams Outlook
Through 14 games, the Avalanche have been on the higher end of undisciplined teams. They are average four shorthanded situations per night, right about in line with what the Senators draw for penalties. In terms of defensive ratios, Colorado is middle of the league or worse (higher ratios) in all of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts. With Matt Duchene in the mix for Ottawa — though he recently practiced on the second unit, unfortunately — Ottawa has a good set up. It would be appreciated if he could replace miscast Alexandre Burrows, Mr. Boucher.

Senators Goaltending Outlook
Craig Anderson is usually a nice DFS play because he tends to get a good amount of shot volume and, for the most part, he does well with it. Tonight Anderson may not get the volume so his upside is capped some, but he should grab the win bonus while avoiding an ugly outing. Colorado had a poor offense with Duchene, so they are one of the safer offenses to pick on at this point.

Avalanche Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj) (14 games): 54.48 CF/60 (24) | 63.47 CA/60 (4) | 1.95 xGF/60 (29) | 2.51 xGA/60 (9)

If the numbers above look poor, they are only going to look worse as the Grind Down goes on. Colorado has been a poor offense for a few years, and the rebuilding Avs will now remove Matt Duchene from the ranks. Duchene was a strong possession player and led a good line for the Avs.

It’s pretty hard to get excited about the roster in general, but at least the top line has relevancy. Against a Senators defense that has been fine with allowing shot volume to opposing offenses, Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen do have a decent set up. As the “home team” Colorado can start this line away from the Brassard line, as this group can be overwhelmed at 5v5. While the upside is certainly limited, the likelihood of shot volume make them a decent contrarian stack.

The second line takes a major hit with Duchene’s loss. He was a strong force in driving play, and without him his linemates see a balloon effect on their CA/60 numbers. That takes away most of the appeal of Nail Yakupov and Alex Kerfoot, who will now play with Sven Andrighetto. Even though the Sens have allowed shot volume, it’s hard to see this line with a workable floor and certainly without a tempting ceiling. A name to keep in mind for later is Tyson Jost, who could get more work with Duchene gone.

Tyson Barrie should be fine for this matchup even if, like the team as a whole, sees their ceiling diminished due to poor skill level. Samuel Girard sees a downgrade going from the Nashville Predators to the Avs, though he will see more time on ice and could get a promotion of sorts.

Avalanche Special Teams Outlook
Not surprisingly, the Senators allow a high volume of shot attempts while shorthanded. They aren’t of high quality, for the most part, and Ottawa ranks next to last in scoring chances allowed. So once again, the Avalanche should be able to put pucks to the net but the results may not be there. The main skaters we would be interested in at 5v5 (the top line and Tyson Barrie, plus Alex Kerfoot) will form the top power play unit.

Avalanche Goaltending Outlook
Semyon Varlamov is a hot and cold goaltending, and the volatility is understandable given that Colorado has poor team context surrounding it. Things will get worse for Colorado’s netminders with Duchene gone. Ottawa isn’t an overwhelming offensive force by any means, but the set up here favors Ottawa. Varlamov is a contrarian play in tournaments with a low floor.

Senators Elite Plays: Matt Duchene, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson
Senators Secondary Plays: Zack Smith
Stackability: Green
Goaltending: Green

Avalanche Elite Plays: None
Avalanche Secondary Plays: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Mikka Rantanen, Tyson Barrie
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Red