NHL Grind Down: Friday, October 20th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-10-20 19:48:06 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres

Vancouver Canucks					Buffalo Sabres
			Anders Nilsson					Chad Johnson
			Record					Record
			2-3-1					1-6-2
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.40	2.60	12.00	89.50	Team Stats	2.57	3.86	18.50	80.80

Canucks Offensive Outlook

2016-17 5v5 (adj): 48.92 CF/60 (29) | 55.36 CA/60 (11) | 1.9 xGF/60 (28) | 2.27 xGA/60 (10)

After playing in Boston last night, the Canucks will travel to Buffalo to take on a Sabres team returning from a West Coast swing. Buffalo has actually been a bit better defensively in the young year, posting a reasonable amount of shot attempts allowed. They were quite poor defensively last season.

Even for the Canucks, there aren’t many easy matchups. With Buffalo playing better, Vancouver could struggle at 5v5 once again. Things should go better on the power play, so focus might be best left to the advantage for Canucks skaters.

Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin will be joined by Markus Granlund on the top line. Crucially for this trio, they stick together on the top power play unit. With Ryan O’Reilly struggling a bit at slowing down opposing defenses (on-ice CA/60 of 60.66), there should be some room for the top line to work. They are the best bet to drive possession tonight as the Sedin brothers do still have high level CF% numbers.

Bo Horvat is down on the third line right now, taking away a solid second scoring line. In his stead Alex Burmistrov is centering Sven Baertschi and Brock Boeser. Boeser has shown some touch in his limited NHL experience, but the virtually nobody among the secondary scorers has a CF% above 50%. While the Sabres will never get confused for the Boston Bruins, Vancouver could very well struggle playing back-to-back against a rested home team.

On the blueline, the Canucks do have a few defenders that are of interest tonight. On a six game slate, players like Ben Hutton and Troy Stecher are of interest. Hutton in particular tends to have a nice shot volume, and both play on the top power play unit with Alexander Edler out. Michael Del Zotto is another name to monitor, and has been playing a fair number of minutes. Even newly acquired Derick Pouliout has been getting ice time, and the talented two way defender just needed a chance.

Canucks Special Teams Outlook
Last year, the Sabres penalty kill was among the worst in the NHL. They allowed more shot attempts while shorthanded than any team in the NHL. They’ve tightened things up so far this year, but the Vancouver offense will still likely get a few chances to convert. The Canuck offense may be among the worst teams at generating shot attempts on the power play, so this upside is capped a bit.

The top line of Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, and Markus Granlund will skate together on the top unit. Vancouver is pretty set on using two defenders, as both Ben Hutton and Troy Stecher will play on the top unit while Michael Del Zotto and Derrick Pouliout skate on the second. All the defensemen are belong to us. The second line of Brock Boeser, Alex Burmistrov, and Sven Baertschi also skate on the second unit.

Canucks Goaltending Outlook
With Anders Nilsson playing last night, Jakob Markstrom should be back in the cage in Buffalo. The Sabres offense has posted very poor numbers in terms of shot generation and scoring chances so far this year. Still, they have enough talent in the top six to do some damage in this game. After Vancouver had a rough outing last night, this one screams Sabres. Markstrom has been solid to start the year, but he’s a tough sell tonight.

Sabres Offensive Outlook

2016-17 5v5 (adj): 51.37 CF/60 (25) | 58.04 CA/60 (5) | 1.96 xGF/60 (26) | 2.17 xGA/60 (14)

After watching the Canucks get stomped by the Bruins last night, the Sabres offense should be feeling confident. Though Buffalo’s numbers aren’t great on the season to date, they are showing signs of getting better. And with Sam Reinhart in the top six now, Buffalo’s top two lines become much more interesting and dangerous.

The Canucks defense hasn’t allowed a high volume of shot attempts, scoring chances, or high-danger shot attempts to this point. They looked terrible last night but a lot of that was due to the major penalty in the first period. Even so, Vancouver hadn’t been east until last night and they are down a key member of the blueline.

Jack Eichel will command a high ownership percentage tonight, in part because he always does and also because of how Vancouver was beat up on last night. The lines have been moving around some but it looks as though Evander Kane is back up on the top line with Eichel and Jason Pominville. As always this line has high upside due to the Eichel Effect, and tonight’s opponent is not worrisome. Vancouver’s second and third lines have been pulverized in CA/60 at 5v5, and Kane in particular can produce high shot volume. Set and forget.

Ryan O’Reilly will likely work out against the Sedin line, so he has the only real tough matchup of the game. O’Reilly is skating with Sam Reinhart and Kyle Okposo, two talented wingers, so O’Reilly should start producing points soon. While the Sedins are still strong drivers of play, they aren’t the red flag matchup they used to be. Buffalo’s second line is a secondary play in this one.

Rasmus Ristolainen should be in a good spot to provide value tonight. He’s the only real defenseman with offensive upside on Buffalo’s roster, and he should be good to use tonight in a matchup favorable to Buffalo’s offense.

Sabres Special Teams Outlook
Going in to last night, Vancouver’s penalty kill hadn’t allowed many shot attempts, scoring chances, or high-danger shot attempts. Then Boston scored three times on a major penalty, so the numbers have turned a bit sour. Buffalo’s offense has been churning out a solid number of shot attempts and quality scoring chances.

The top unit has two parts top line and two parts second line. Jack Eichel, Jason Pominville, Sam Reinhart, Kyle Okposo, and Rasmus Ristolainen make up the first team. Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane, Matt Moulson, Matt Tennyson, and Nathan Beaulieu play on the second team, but the value clearly lies in the top unit.

Sabres Goaltending Outlook
Robin Lehner needs to wash his hands more as he has been feeling under the weather lately and is questionable. Look for Chad Johnson to get the start. Hockey Ochocinco has been a usable goalie in the past, and has done well facing high shot volumes while playing behind some poor defenses. He’s off to a slow start this year, but this is a solid get-well matchup for both him and the Sabres.

Vancouver has one line that can push play and figures to cause trouble. With the Sabres on home ice and putting Ryan O’Reilly out against the Sedins, the risk is mitigated some. Johnson will probably draw decent ownership because Vancouver’s offensive struggles are well known, but he should avoid a meltdown here.

Canucks Elite Plays: None
Canucks Secondary Plays: Daniel Sedin, Markus Granlund, Brock Boeser, Bun Hutton, Troy Stecher
Stackability: Red
Goaltending: Red

Sabres Elite Plays: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane, Rasmus Ristolainen
Sabres Secondary Plays: Jason Pominville, Sam Reinhart, Kyle Okposo
Stackability: Yellow
Goaltending: Yellow