NHL Grind Down: Thursday, January 18th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-01-18 19:32:43 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

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Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers

Buffalo Sabres					New York Rangers
			Robin Lehner					Henrik Lundqvist
			Record					Record
			11-24-9					23-17-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.25	3.41	12.88	78.36	Team Stats	2.96	2.80	19.15	84.62

Sabres Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 50.05 CF/60 (31) | 58.28 CA/60 (15) | 1.79 xGF/60 (31) | 2.19 xGA/60 (21)

It’s the old adage of a stoppable force meeting up with a movable object tonight at MSG. The Sabres have the league’s worst offense while the Rangers enter with one of the worst defenses. Something has to give… right?

Buffalo really shouldn’t be as bad as they are given their top six, but here we are. Their system is not conducive to offense. Even against a Ranger defense that should be exploitable given their propensity to surrender quality scoring chances and shot attempts, the Sabres don’t inspire much confidence given their struggles on offense.

Jack Eichel, Kyle Okposo, and Benoit Pouliot would benefit if the Rangers are without either/both of Ryan McDonagh or Kevin Hayes. This line pushes play decent enough, and Eichel can crank out high shot volume games. But with the game on the road, especially, assuming the best from the Buffalo offenses remains a risky bet.

Buffalo’s second line of Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane, and Jason Pominville is mostly in the same boat. Kane takes Eichel’s role as high volume shooter and ROR plays Okposo’s underachiever role. Once again this line should be more productive than they are, but the system has struggled to generate breakouts and rhythms for the offense.

At the end of the day, the Sabres (outside of Eichel) are best suited for tournaments. Their matchup is too good to ignore, so the pins are set up to be knocked down.

Sabres Special Teams Outlook
The Rangers have some funky penalty kill numbers. They have been the second best team at limiting overall shot attempts, but they have been one of ten worst teams suppressing scoring chances and HD shot attempts on a per hour basis. Buffalo’s power play numbers — shockingly — aren’t great, but they have the potential to have success when they get on the power play tonight.

Sabres Goaltending Outlook
As we’ve discussed, teams coming off the bye tend to play a little flat. That adds another bit of risk to Robin Lehner, who doesn’t really need much more stacked against him. He’s already playing behind a terrible offense that fails to give him goal support. While Buffalo’s defense isn’t terrible this year, their low event ways could lead to a low shot game from the Rangers, who don’t generate a high number of attempts. New York’s second highest expected goal rate at 5v5 despite the low CF/60 points to a risky, lower upside spot for Lehner, but he at least has a chance to get some goal support tonight. IT also helps he’s quite cheap across the industry.

Rangers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 52.94 CF/60 (28) | 62.88 CA/60 (2) | 2.52 xGF/60 (2) | 2.62 xGA/60 (1)

The Rangers may be facing one of the worst teams in the NHL, but the Sabres haven’t been all that bad on defense. They play a low event style of hockey that keeps quality shot attempts and scoring chances on the lower side. They’ve also had some decent goaltending from Robin Lehner this year.

New York’s offense has mostly been quiet, but we know they are built to pounce. Their second best 5v5 expected goals for rate despite having one of the league’s worst shot attempt ratios points to a unit that waits for the right moment to strike. That’s not always great in DFS as the volume of shots hurts the floor and the upside.

The Rangers did score five times in their last game, so assuming Kevin Hayes is out again, expect the lines to be similar. That means Mika Zibanejad should continue to center Rick Nash and Pavel Buchnevich. Low event team or not, there is a lot to like about this line. Nash’s numbers check out under the hood, while Z is the team’s best center and Buchnevich’s playmaking ability add an extra gear. This line has solid upside given their collective talents and their prices are quite fair.

After that the lines are a bit sketchier. Michael Grabner is back down to the fourth line, working with Peter Holland and Jesper Fast. Mats Zuccarello, on the other hand, remains on the second line with J.T. Miller and Vinni Lettieri, who was apparently created specially to play in NYC. Paul Carey has been popping off every few games, but he’s a low upside player. He’s skating with Jimmy Vesey and David Desharnais.

No other line really pops off the page as one to aggressively look to roster besides the top line. Having exposure to the Zibanejad line figures to work out well tonight. Their ability to drive play and create both shot attempts and individual chances makes up for the subpar on-paper matchup.

Rangers Special Teams Outlook
The Sabres have mostly done well to stay out of the penalty box, and when they have gone shorthanded, they have done a good job to suppress both scoring chances and HD shot attempts against. The Rangers have struggled a bit on the power play, so they aren’t in line for a great power play opportunity. Do note, however, that last game we saw the top line in its current form skate together on the top power play unit, so there is a bit of bonus time together for the three talented forwards.

Rangers Goaltending Outlook
Henrik Lundqvist stonewalled the Flyers in his last game, a much needed confidence booster after a string of ugly performances. King Henrik will be a popular play tonight given how bad the Sabres are on offense. Though New York’s defense has been atrocious, adding to Lundqvist’s “pro’s” list is the fact Buffalo is coming off their bye. Lundqvist (or Ondrej Pavelec) shouldn’t be thought of as a slam dunk, but the matchup can’t be much better.

Sabres Elite Plays: Jack Eichel
Sabres Secondary Plays: Kyle Okposo, Benoit Pouliot, Evander Kane, Ryan O’Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen
Stackability: Orange / Yellow
Goaltending: Orange

Rangers Elite Plays: Rick Nash, Pavel Buchnevich, Mika Zibanejad
Rangers Secondary Plays: Michael Grabner, J.T. Miller, Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Shattenkirk
Stackability: Orange / Yellow
Goaltending: Yellow