NHL Grind Down: Thursday, January 25th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-01-26 00:01:33 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers

Tampa Bay Lightning					Philadelphia Flyers
			Andrei Vasilevskiy					Brian Elliott
			Record					Record
			33-12-3					24-16-8
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.50	2.54	23.81	79.25	Team Stats	2.92	2.77	20.61	75.17

Lightning Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 62.79 CF/60 (3) | 55.21 CA/60 (28) | 2.27 xGF/60 (15) | 2.01 xGA/60 (28)

The Lightning will look to close out the official first half on a high note but have a relatively stout defensive team in their path. So far this year the opponent has mattered little to the Bolts. The offense is carrying play at a very healthy clip and they are among the cream of the crop in generating shot attempts.

The Flyers play a much lower event style game, something that may create something of an issue for Tampa forwards to pile up raw numbers. Additionally, the Flyers have a slew of strong defenders and a solid two-way top line that will likely negate the Stamkos line. Philadelphia does not have elite defensive metrics, but their scoring chances and high-danger attempts allowed are certainly closer to the bottom of the league (23 and 21, respectively) than the top.

Steven Stamkos is operating on something of an island with Chris Kunitz and Vladislav Namestnikov on his line. The latter two are solid facilitators but are not elevators as Nikita Kucherov is. Stamkos is still Stamkos, of course. Kucherov is working on a highly explosive second line with Brayden Point and Tyler Johnson. The word is and has been out on Point-Johnson, so with Kucherov on the line now look for this group to see more of the tough Couturier line while the Flyers opt to slow Stamkos in other ways. Yanni Gourde continues to avoid turning into a pumpkin on the third line, and he and his line (Matthew Peca, Alex Killorn) will have a favorable 5v5 draw against the bottom six for Philly (though the floor/ceiling combo isn’t attractive).

Lightning Special Teams Outlook
Philadelphia has been a middle of the pack defensive time while shorthanded this year, which isn’t all that often as they go down a man about thrice per game. Their shot attempt volume and quality is not good nor bad, but they have been strong limiting scoring chances. Tampa’s power play is a well oiled machine so they will make due with whatever Philly can throw at them, but the limited number of power plays is the concern.

Lightning Goaltending Outlook
Andrei Vasilevskiy has had an amazing season, his most recent accomplishment being a stonewalling of the Blackhawks in Chicago (on nearly 40 shots). The Flyers are a low event offense and while the Bolts will be without their best defender, they still have a good forward group to help relieve some of the pressure on the defense. Vasilevskiy won’t come cheap, but the chances of him getting blown out or sinking your team are low.

Flyers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 54.54 CF/60 (26) | 55.83 CA/60 (25) | 2.18 xGF/60 (18) | 2.1 xGA/60 (23)

It’s going to be an uphill battle for the Flyers. Tonight’s opponent is the beast of the east, and though they are without their top defender, they still should not be taken lightly. Tampa Bay has limiting scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts at 5v5 all year. And when they do struggle, they have a Vezina-caliber goalie to pick up the pieces.

Compounding the risk tonight is the fact the Flyers don’t have a high flying offense. Outside of the top line, Philadelphia forward group is relatively uninspiring with a few individual exceptions. Over the past month, overall shot attempts are poor and scoring chances generated have been uninspiring. HD attempts have been plentiful however, so all is not lost.

Philadelphia’s best line is its top unit, consisting of Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, and Travis Konecny. On home ice this line takes on opposing top threats. A matchup with the Point line seems unlikely, and it’s fair to call that an unfavorable matchup. The Point line drives play well and has solid defensive tendencies, often seeing the toughest minutes when the games are in Tampa. Jakub Voracek is making the most of his second line assignment with Michael Raffl and Valtteri Filppula, while Wayne Simmonds and Jordan Weal are playing well on the third. None of these matchups are ideal and Tampa’s third line is a decent defensive line, so the Simmonds-Weal (and Nolan Patrick) won’t catch a break there. The only real break the Flyers are catching — and it’s a big one, both literally and figuratively — is the absence of Hedman.

Flyers Special Teams Outlook
The Flyers have had a high-end power play all season, generating a heavy volume of shot attempts and creating quality chances consistently. They’ll work against a Lightning penalty killing group that has very stout year to date numbers. Victor Hedman saw a fair amount of penalty killing time, however, so it’s fair to think their current numbers aren’t necessarily predictive of future performance. Tampa goes shorthanded 3.3 times per game, so they aren’t strangers to the penalty box. It’s a neutral matchup, in the end, for the Philly power play.

Flyers Goaltending Outlook
Even with Hedman and Ondrej Palat out of the lineup, the Lightning offense is certainly nothing to sneeze at. They have two potent scoring lines and their third line contains has also shown the ability to score. Philly’s low event ways will certainly help minimize the pace of the game, so Tampa’s offense can hopefully be held in check some. Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth are both in decent form, but this is a GPP crease only and one that comes with plenty of risk.

Lightning Elite Plays: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov
Lightning Secondary Plays: Brayden Point, Tyler Johnson, Vladislav Namestnikov, Anton Stralman
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Yellow

Flyers Elite Plays: None
Flyers Secondary Plays: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere, Ivan Provorov
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Orange