NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 1st

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-03-02 00:01:42 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers

Carolina Hurricanes					Philadelphia Flyers
			Cam Ward					Petr Mrazek
			Record					Record
			27-25-11					34-19-10
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.60	3.02	19.19	79.33	Team Stats	2.97	2.75	21.05	75.28

Hurricanes Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 62.82 CF/60 (3) | 54.24 CA/60 (30) | 2.45 xGF/60 (5) | 2.17 xGA/60 (21)

The Hurricanes have a tough matchup on tap tonight, one that is more difficult now than it would have been two weeks ago. The Flyers play strong defense and are a low event team, but they’ve also got competent goaltending now in Petr Mrazek. Philly ranks among the bottom five in allowing shot attempts and quality has been limited as well. Their blueline is strong, they have a shutdown center, and now a strong netminder.

For Carolina, this may be too much to handle. The Hurricanes push play extremely well at 5v5, and they’ve been among the best teams in the league at generating shot attempts. Quality has been hit or miss, but the big issue is a lack of finishing. This team’s favorable expected goal rate is never realized year after year.

It’s unknown when Jordan Staal will be ready to play again as he deals with a personal tragedy. In his place, Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen are centered by Elias Lindholm. Lines should be considered fluid at this time, as Bill Peters likes to mix things up anyway. In fact, last game there were a handful of on the fly changes to lines, including Teravainen working with Lindholm and Jeff Skinner.

The reality is that this is a very difficult matchup for Carolina, even high end goal scorers Aho and Skinner. With lines a moving target it will be difficult to hone in on a particular group of players as Carolina’s secondary scorers lack finishing ability. The game is also in Philly so they have the advantage of getting their preferred defensive matchups out against lines changed on the fly.

Hurricanes Special Teams Outlook
The Hurricanes have been very strong on the advantage this year, but they have a tough matchup tonight. The Flyers aren’t a highly penalized team, and they enter tonight with one of the lowest rates of scoring chances allowed while shorthanded. They also have a bottom third rate in quantity and quality of shot attempts allowed, and as previously mentioned, they have competent goaltending between the pipes.

Hurricanes Goaltending Outlook
This could be a lower scoring game so on one hand Cam Ward makes some sense. The Hurricanes control play quite well and have a very strong 5v5 expected goals allowed rate, while the Flyers aren’t a high flying offense. They have a dangerous top six and power play, but their power play advantage is negated a bit by Carolina’s disciplined style. At the end of the day Cam Ward is who is he is, and that is a goalie that is quite hit or miss. When he misses, he tends to miss big.

Flyers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 54.89 CF/60 (26) | 55.28 CA/60 (27) | 2.18 xGF/60 (22) | 2.1 xGA/60 (24)

When looking at the matchup tonight, it’s pretty easy to think that this will be a low scoring game. We already talked about why this is a bad matchup for Carolina’s offense, and things aren’t drastically different on the other side.

Unlike the Hurricanes, the Flyers don’t dominate play at 5v5 or generate a high volume of shot attempts. The trade off is that the Flyers have some solid finishers, so while their forwards drop off fast after their top six, the heavy lifting is spread between two lines. The top line would also benefit if Jordan Staal isn’t back tonight. The overall matchup problem is that the Hurricanes suppress shot very well,entering tonight with the second lowest rate of attempts allowed per hour at 5v5. As the Flyers don’t play a fast game that is conducive to a high shot/chance rate, events should be muted in this game.