NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 29th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:46:03 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres

Detroit Red Wings					Buffalo Sabres
			Jimmy Howard					Robin Lehner
			Record					Record
			28-38-11					24-40-12
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.52	3.08	17.43	78.10	Team Stats	2.32	3.26	17.11	77.78

Red Wings Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 54.59 CF/60 (27) | 57.96 CA/60 (18) | 2.15 xGF/60 (24) | 2.3 xGA/60 (14)

We have a likely snoozefest in Buffalo tonight. The low event, low upside Detroit offense may have done enough to defeat Pittsburgh last time out, but they should not be confused with a competent offense. This group has consistently underachieved this year, posting a horrific rate of shot attempts in quantity and quality at 5v5 while mismanaging the better forwards on the roster.

Though the Sabres are one of the worst teams in the league, it’s not for lack of a decent defensive system. Like the Red Wings, the Sabres employ a “boring” and low event system. Their defensive metrics aren’t elite, mind you, but they also aren’t on par with the truly bad defenses in the league. They’ve been a little worse over the last month as players check out, but they are at home where they’ve been decent and the Wings may not be able to cash in.

We can pretty confidently keep the top line of Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, and Tyler Bertuzzi on the shelf tonight. They are the line most likely to matchup against the O’Reilly line for Buffalo. Ryan O’Reilly remains a strong two-way center and his lines have typically muted defensive ratios. Even if this line avoids ROR they aren’t producing shot rates at healthy levels.

Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha are a talented young duo but they have been absolutely steamrolled at 5v5 with Darren Helm on their line. It’s been brutal in just over 80 minutes at 5v5 (SSS), as they have a 42% CF% and are producing fewer than nine HD shot attempts together per hour. Individually Larkin and Mantha are fine, but woof.

Red Wings Special Teams Outlook
The Sabres haven’t been great on the penalty kill this year, but they do help their cause by going shorthanded just 2.8 times per game on average. The have elevated rates of shot attempt quantity and quality allowed when they are shorthanded. Detroit has not been a great power play team and they give their better forwards play on the second unit rather than the first, so…

Red Wings Goaltending Outlook
Prior to Detroit’s last game, Jimmy Howard had allowed four goals in five of six contests. Naturally he then allowed just two goals to the Penguins while the Wings were playing back-to-back. The Sabres are one of the premier teams to pick on thanks to their horrendous offensive numbers, but it’s not as if the Wings are all that superior. This game figures to be lower scoring so picking a netminder from this game makes sense, but Howard and Detroit’s overall form doesn’t inspire much confidence they can dominate this matchup.

Sabres Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 50.53 CF/60 (31) | 59.12 CA/60 (14) | 1.82 xGF/60 (31) | 2.26 xGA/60 (18)

It’s been another long, disappointing season for the Sabres, but at least the home fans that show up tonight can say they saw Casey Mittelstadt in his first NHL game. That’s about all there is to get excited about here, really. By now it’s well documented that the Sabres are the worst offense in the NHL. They don’t generate shot attempts or scoring chances at a high rate, they have severely questionable personnel usage, the system is low event, and there is a general lack of talent away from a few key forwards.

At the same time, the Red Wings are not a fast paced team that will help to push the offense by upping the speed of the game. Rather, this contest figures to be slow and feature little in the way of offense. The Wings are in the middle of the pack in what they allow, including over the last month, and Buffalo may not be equipped to exploit their talent deficient blueline.

Look for the top line of Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, and Scott Wilson to draw the Zetterberg line at 5v5. Without Anthony Mantha they haven’t been nearly as strong defensively. Oddly, Mantha’s current line has been horrendous at 5v5, which is good news for Jack Eichel. Eichel should be able to take advantage of the woeful defensive play of Detroit’s second line. Eichel is working with Jason Pominville and Zemgus Girgensons, who just can’t seem to find his way out of the top six.

It looks like highly touted Casey Mittelstadt will start on the third line away from the big guns, but he will have Sam Reinhart on his wing. Reinhart is one of those players that makes his linemates better, so it’s not a bad landing spot. This line will likely see the Nielsen line for Detroit at 5v5 so they have something of an unfavorable on-ice matchup.

Sabres Special Teams Outlook
Buffalo had one of the better power plays last year, but that hasn’t been the case this season. It’s an all around middle of the road matchup for the Buffalo power play. The Red Wings go shorthanded at rate in line with the rest of the league (3.1 times per game) and their shot attempts and scoring chances allowed put them middle of the pack.

Sabres Goaltending Outlook
With Linus Ullmark dinged up, the Sabres may not be able to give their young netminder more of his audition for next year. Robin Lehner hasn’t been in good form, which leaves Chad Johnson as a likely starter. He was last seen stopping 39 of 41 Toronto shots in an upset victory for Buffalo. Well alright then. Detroit is not a powerful offense and this should be a low event, low scoring game, making whichever netminder gets the call here a low cost flier. Ullmark would be preferred but Johnson hasn’t been playing too terribly, while Lehner is the least exciting of the three.

Red Wings Elite Plays: None
Red Wings Secondary Plays: Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, Gustav Nyquist
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Yellow

Sabres Elite Plays: Jack Eichel
Sabres Secondary Plays: Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Jason Pominville, Rasmus Ristolainen
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Yellow