NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, February 20th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-21 02:30:58 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

This article will be updated with goalie confirmations and key line changes as they are announced throughout the day.

Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers

Montreal Canadiens					Philadelphia Flyers
			Carey Price					Alex Lyon
			Record					Record
			22-29-7					30-19-10
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.53	3.14	21.59	77.35	Team Stats	3.00	2.83	21.43	75.00

Canadiens Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 60.89 CF/60 (11) | 59.44 CA/60 (11) | 2.41 xGF/60 (11) | 2.11 xGA/60 (24)

Montreal’s offense is in a bad place right now, as they have really struggled to light the lamp. Their struggles haven’t really been for lack of trying, as over the last month their shot generation rates at 5v5 are healthy. In the past 13 games, they sit just inside or just outside the top ten in generating shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts per hour at 5v5.

Unfortunately, they do not have a favorable matchup to get back on track tonight. Though goaltending is a question mark for the Flyers right now, Philly enters with crisp defensive ratios and don’t play a very open style of hockey. They are a low event defense, so Montreal may struggle to generate a fair amount of attempts and chances at 5v5. Furthermore, the Flyers’ top line is elite defensively, so there’s some individual matchup concern.

For the most part, teams still consider Max Pacioretty the top scoring threat (fair) and thus home defenses use their better matchups against his line. That group currently includes Jonathan Drouin and Artturi Lehkonen. Drouin’s presence is a nice upgrade for Patches, but the matchup makes this line risky (against the Couturier line at 5v5). The second line of Phillip Danault, Charles Hudon, and Alex Galchenyuk don’t skate by completely here, as the Voracek line has held their own defensively at 5v5 as well. It’s not until the third line where the matchups ease some, though Tomas Plekanec and Paul Byron don’t really stand out as great stacking partners for Brendan Gallagher.

Canadiens Special Teams Outlook
Montreal comes into this game as one of the better teams on the power play, but they have something of a tough matchup. The Flyers are a bottom third team in allowing scoring chances while shorthanded, and their shot attempt quantity and quality allowed is simple middle of the pack. Also, these aren’t the Broad Street Bullies anymore (well, besides Radko Gudas) as the Flyers only go average 2.9 times shorthanded per game. Add it all up, and it’s a neutral matchup at best for the Montreal power play.

Canadiens Goaltending Outlook
Carey Price is probably ready for this season to just end already. He has not been able to get into a groove and go on a run, and in fact has posted more than a few crooked statlines. Though the Flyers aren’t a high powered offense, they are playing quite well at the moment and their top six (and power play) are connecting. This is a game that could be lower event, lower scoring, but Price hasn’t exactly earned the benefit of the doubt this year.

Flyers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 54.51 CF/60 (26) | 55.27 CA/60 (27) | 2.21 xGF/60 (19) | 2.13 xGA/60 (23)

Even with their top six playing at a high level, the Flyers offensive numbers remain poor. They are a top heavy team, to be sure, and as a whole they don’t really push play in a great way at 5v5. Tonight’s matchup isn’t great either, so while the iron is certainly hot, a strike is not a given.

Despite the losing over the last month, Montreal hasn’t played all that poorly at 5v5. Their shot attempts and scoring chances allowed are in the bottom third of the league, and they have allowed the fewest high-danger shot attempts on a per-hour basis during that time.

DFS exposure is typically best left to the top six. The top line of Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, and Travis Konecny are playing at a high level even while drawing opposing top lines. Tonight that means the Drouin-Pacioretty line, who in very limited minutes, have been adept defensively. In a larger look back, though, Patches and Drouin have exploitable defensive ratios (Lehkonen is a solid linemate) so there is some wiggle room. Additionally, Philly gets a highly favorable power play draw and this line contributes two-fifths of the top unit (Giroux-Couturier).

Two more forwards come from the second line, where Nolan Patrick centers Jakub Voracek and Wayne Simmonds. Patrick hasn’t had a great initiation to the NHL, but Voracek and Simmonds are great linemates to have. They should win their matchups against the Montreal second line as Galchenyuk-Danault haven’t been great defensively.

Flyers Special Teams Outlook
The Flyers have been electric while on the advantage, and tonight their powerful power play gets a highly favorable matchup. The Habs have allowed the fourth most overall shot attempts on the PK, and their scoring chances allowed are a fringe top ten ratio. Best yet, only the Panthers have allowed more high-danger shot attempts on a per-hour basis while shorthanded. Montreal may not be the most penalized team in the league, but they go shorthanded enough (3.1 times per game/average) that the Flyers should get their power play on the ice enough to do some damage.

Flyers Goaltending Outlook
Next man up for the Flyers’ netminder position. With Brian Elliott and now Michal Neuvirth both hurt, Alex Lyon is getting his chance to shine. He isn’t a heralded prospect and has an ugly sub-.900 save percentage in the AHL this year. Working in his favor is that he’s facing a team that forgot how to score and Philly’s defense is legit. Working against him is that he’s been bad and the Habs, for their scoring struggles, still have strong underlying numbers. Lyons is extremely risky even in a decent home ice matchup.

Canadiens Elite Plays: None
Canadiens Secondary Plays: Brendan Gallagher, Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Drouin
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Orange