NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, March 6th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-03-07 02:28:55 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers

Winnipeg Jets					New York Rangers
			Steve Mason					Henrik Lundqvist
			Record					Record
			39-17-9					30-30-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.35	2.66	24.55	82.35	Team Stats	2.80	3.11	20.71	82.84

Jets Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 50.9 CF/60 (15) | 47.26 CA/60 (28) | 2.25 xGF/60 (5) | 2.03 xGA/60 (27)

The Jets bring the air show to the bright lights of Broadway in an A+ matchup for the deep offense. New York will be hard pressed to slow this group down. Despite holding their own during their swing through Western Canada, the Rangers are not a team on the level of the Jets. The defense continues to struggle even as some kids get to cut their teeth, and Winnipeg’s top two scoring lines should find plenty of room to operate. Scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts remain plentiful for offenses opposing the Rangers.

Winnipeg doesn’t have high-end offensive metrics on the year, but they’ve been a different team for the last few months. They’re generating a good deal of shot attempts and scoring chances, though high-danger shot attempts still lag. This lack of quality is offset by some strong finishing ability from gifted goal scorers. Basically, don’t let one poor metric make it seem like this is a risky spot for the Jets — they should have zero issues tonight.

Patrik Laine is on an absolute tear right now. It goes to show how deep this offense is, as he, Paul Stastny, and Nikolaj Ehlers work from the “third” line (but it’s the second scoring line, really). They had been flying under the radar before Laine’s bender; Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, and Kyle Connor got the attention prior. The Laine line is more explosive but the Wheeler line’s numbers are depressed because they work the tougher matchups on home ice. On the road, look for coverage to shift to Laine.

Either way, there aren’t many matchup concerns in New York tonight. Even New York’s top line, which pushes play well and is responsible defensively, should struggle to contain whichever line they match against. This is a green light situation for the Wheeler/Laine lines, and deeper tournament entrants can consider the line of Mathieu Perreault, Bryan Little, and Jack Roslovic. They may not have the big game upside of the other two lines, but they drive play extremely well and are built to dominate matchups like this.

Jets Special Teams Outlook
As if the 5v5 matchup wasn’t good enough, the Jets should dominate when they go on the power play advantage. The Rangers have allowed the third most scoring chances and fifth most high-danger shot attempts per hour to opposing power plays. Winnipeg’s power play evolution is more F-35 than P-51. It’s highly evolved, is what I’m getting it, and they should give the Ranger penalty killers fits.

Jets Goaltending Outlook
Even though the Jets are on the road, Connor Hellebuyck should be in line for the win in this game. That gives him a nice floor to work with, and despite some recent hiccups, Hellebuyck has been a strong option in net this year. New York’s offense doesn’t drive play well at all, so shot volume may be a concern — the ceiling may not be attractive in GPPs. In any event, Winnipeg’s defensive ratios are all top notch and they keep the quality chances to a minimum at 5v5. This has been where the Rangers have been most dangerous, so the opposition’s strength is neutralized. Update: Steve Mason will make his, um, triumphant return to the lineup. He hasn’t played in months and was terrible when he did play. Even with Zibanejad out for NY, this is a spot to avoid.

Rangers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 45.77 CF/60 (29) | 54.6 CA/60 (2) | 2.46 xGF/60 (18) | 2.63 xGA/60 (1)

The Rangers return home after a successful road trip through Western Canada, but they don’t have much of a “welcome home” present awaiting them. The Jets have established themselves as a dominant team and one that has realistic Stanley Cup aspirations. The Rangers just waved the white flag on their season.