NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, February 21st

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-22 01:35:35 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks

Ottawa Senators					Chicago Blackhawks
			Mike Condon					Anton Forsberg
			Record					Record
			21-28-9					25-27-8
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.69	3.43	16.29	74.27	Team Stats	2.83	2.87	15.98	82.70

Senators Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 55.57 CF/60 (22) | 64.71 CA/60 (1) | 2.02 xGF/60 (27) | 2.43 xGA/60 (5)

Though the Senators haven’t been good offensively this year and they’re not a team we typically turn to in DFS, we have some short slate fun tonight. With just five other teams in action and a decent enough matchup, the Senators are actually in play tonight. Famous last words…

The fact of the matter is that while Ottawa’s system is a mess and their front office is a joke, they have a very talented core group of offensive players (this includes EK65). After often deploying unoptimized lines, the top six is solidified so we have options in DFS.

Oh, and it helps they get a date with the Blackhawks, a franchise at a crossroads and in a tailspin.

Chicago has been struggling in all facets of the game but especially defensively. They have struggled to suppress shot attempts and quality chances, and without Corey Crawford, game stealing ability is null from the crease. Over the last month, Chicago had started to turn things around in limiting shot attempts but high-danger attempts allowed remain elevated.

Ottawa has two lines that come with relevancy in DFS. The top line has Matt Duchene and Mike Hoffman, along with recent waiver add Magnus Paajarvi (or Marian Gaborik (?)). The second line, meanwhile, has sniper Mark Stone with Derick Brassard, as well as Zack Smith. Each line has a sniper (Hoffman, Stone) and toss-in wingers (Paajarvi/Gaborik, Smith). Duchene has been better over the last few months after a very slow start to his Ottawa career.

Expect the Hawks to use their top line (centered by Jonathan Toews) against the Duchene line with the Brassard line skating against Chicago’s middle six. Though Toews remains a strong two-way center, his lines are often involved in high-event hockey. The on-ice numbers show plenty of chances and attempts going back against Chicago, so this shouldn’t be considered a red flag matchup, but not playing against a two way center like Toews is always a plus (Brassard line).

For what it’s worth, the Senators changed things up and made life more difficult with their forward usage on the power play. Or maybe they made life easier with the split up of the loaded top unit, as only Stone and Brassard skated with Erik Karlsson on the top unit. That may be a short term blip and not a long term trend, but still, it pushes the edge to Brassard-Stone versus Duchene-Hoffman if you were going back and forth between the pairs.

Senators Special Teams Outlook