NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, January 10th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-01-10 17:27:41 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):
Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):
Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa Senators					Toronto Maple Leafs
			Mike Condon					Frederik Andersen
			Record					Record
			14-18-9					25-16-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.75	3.33	15.79	76.27	Team Stats	3.16	2.86	21.60	83.69

Senators Offensive Outlook
5v5 (adj): 56.53 CF/60 (19) | 61.52 CA/60 (3) | 1.98 xGF/60 (28) | 2.34 xGA/60 (11)

After weathering the Chicago storm last night, the Senators have a quick turnaround with a tough matchup against a rested Maple Leaf squad. Though Toronto’s defense can lapse from time to time, this is an unfavorable matchup for Ottawa. The Leafs should dominate this one from the drop of the puck. Toronto has allowed a high number of shot attempts and their pace of play keeps their 5v5 expected goal rate high, but Ottawa doesn’t generate many scoring chances or quality attempts on their own.
The good news is that both Derick Brassard and Matt Duchene were healthy enough to go last night, so barring a setback, they should be fine tonight. Duchene will slot in with Mike Hoffman and Bobby Ryan while Brassard skates between Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel.

To be fair, if these lines had been together for than a hot minute (and only recently), Ottawa’s offensive numbers would probably look a lot different. Each line has actually been productive and sports impressive 5v5 numbers, albeit with a small sample size. On a two game slate, the Senators certainly warrant consideration — everyone does. Most should flock to the Toronto side of this matchup, but the top six could continue to find some success here.

The main concern is that one line, likely the Brassard line, is going to see a fair amount of Nazem Kadri at 5v5. Though Kadri isn’t posting elite defensive numbers this year, he remains a strong two-way center capable of slowing opposing lines. Especially with Brassard likely to be less than 100%, the Duchene line may be the better target.

Senators Special Teams Outlook
Ottawa’s power play numbers aren’t overly impressive, and the Leafs have done a pretty strong job limiting chances to opposing power plays. Additionally, Toronto doesn’t go shorthanded at an abnormally high rate. Thus, the Senator power play could struggle to capitalize tonight.