NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, January 3rd

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2019-05-29 16:58:07 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings

Ottawa Senators					Detroit Red Wings
			Craig Anderson					Jimmy Howard
			Record					Record
			12-17-8					15-16-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.95	3.61	15.87	77.06	Team Stats	3.05	3.58	20.17	80.95

Senators Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 55.63 CF/60 (21) | 60.22 CA/60 (7) | 1.9 xGF/60 (29) | 2.26 xGA/60 (16)

On a two game slate we are treated by the NHL to having two of the lower event offenses face off against one another. The good news is that we can slum it up with some of the Senator forwards where we may be hesitant on larger slates. The hesitation is warranted, of course, as Ottawa has been atrocious on offense this year. The team has used a low event, low quality system that has resulted in one of the lower shot attempt rates and goal expectations at 5v5.

To make matters worse, the Red Wings utilize a similar system and they have a strong defensive line that will likely be used against Ottawa’s top line. Though talent consolidation on Senator lines has to be seen to be believed, it looks as though Mike Hoffman is up to the top line with Matt Duchene and Bobby Ryan. A Duchene/Hoffman pairing would be fun, but unfortunately they are likely going to go up against Frans Nielsen ‘s line for Detroit. Nielsen and Detroit’s shutdown line have done their jobs. Given that Ottawa isn’t a powerhouse, a difficult on-ice matchup pretty much banishes this line to deep GPP territory.

Derick Brassard and Mark Stone should benefit from avoiding the Nielsen line. Full disclosure, teams do tend to target Brassard (and Stone) with their top assignments, though I suspect Hoffman and Duchene together changes that. Assuming this pair (they skate with Ryan Dzingel) works away from Nielsen, they are moderately interesting on tonight’s slate. Detroit may not offer up a ton of chances, but they do struggle a bit with quality and control as evident by their high expected goals allowed rate. Stone is a gifted goal scorer and can fly solo if you don’t want to go all in on Sens.

With talent (likely) consolidated on the top two lines, Ottawa’s bottom six can safely be ignored. Filip Chlapik would be interesting if given a top six spot, or when Hoffman inevitably works his ways back down to the third line.

Senators Special Teams Outlook
Detroit doesn’t present a great spot for the Ottawa power play to take advantage. They are purely middle of the pack in terms of the attempts and chances they allow to opposing power plays. Meanwhile, the Senators are in the running for worst teams at generating scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts while on the power play. The Red Wings average 3.3 times shorthanded per game, so they aren’t a team that spends a ton of time in the box. There’s not a big upside swing for Ottawa, unfortunately.

Senators Goaltending Outlook
With two low quality offenses meeting up, this one shouldn’t get too out of hand and both goalies are viable options.