NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, March 21st

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:46:08 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins

Montreal Canadiens					Pittsburgh Penguins
			Carey Price					Casey DeSmith
			Record					Record
			26-35-12					41-26-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.47	3.10	21.13	75.00	Team Stats	3.26	3.00	25.76	80.34

Canadiens Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 60.23 CF/60 (21) | 60.79 CA/60 (5) | 2.38 xGF/60 (10) | 2.18 xGA/60 (22)

The Canadiens cannot seem to stumble into a goal right now. After being a consistent underperformer compared to their metrics, the curtains seem to be down on the Montreal season. They are now merely a mediocre offense in creating chances and shot attempts at 5v5, and the finish remains an issue.

Pittsburgh is coming off a flat performance in Brooklyn last night. Perhaps Montreal can take advantage, but it seems more likely the Penguins will have some spring in their step as they fine tune for the playoffs. Defensively the Penguins have been playing well, as they have been among the best in limiting 5v5 shot attempts over the last month. Their rates of scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts are middle of the pack.

The Canadiens are not a team that is completely devoid of talent despite their lack of goal scoring success lately. Jonathan Drouin is still plugging along at center, but he has Brendan Gallagher on his line at the moment (as well as Paul Byron). Alex Galchenyuk and Artturi Lehkonen have been a nice duo on the second line as they push play well and have some solid underlying numbers (Jacob De La Rose centers them). On a short slate, these four forwards are solid contrarian options and Pittsburgh’s netminder figures to be widely owned, making them something of a leverage play as well. The Habs fall off a bit after the top four forwards but at least this group has been productive, particularly Galchenyuk and Lehkonen as they have created a good deal of quality shot attempts at 5v5 (in a small sample).

Canadiens Special Teams Outlook
The Penguins are the best team at suppressing shot attempts and the second best at limiting scoring chances while shorthanded, so this isn’t a great spot for the Montreal power play. The Canadiens have been good on the advantage but they may struggle to create some quality looks tonight.

Canadiens Goaltending Outlook
Well look who it is, it’s our old friend Mr. Carey Price back in the blue paint. Price will make his first start in a month as he has been out with a concussion. A road draw in Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a great place to shake off the rust, so Price will need to be sharp early. It’s been a brutal year for Price between injuries and ineffectiveness, and there is no reason to force him into lineups in his first game back in a tough matchup.

Penguins Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 61.37 CF/60 (8) | 56.25 CA/60 (23) | 2.51 xGF/60 (4) | 2.34 xGA/60 (12)

After a flat performance last night against the Islanders, expect the Penguins to come out with a bit more mojo tonight. They’ll welcome a Canadiens team to town that has seen their season go off the rails over the last few weeks. A formerly strong defensive system has some major cracks in it as the Habs have some of the highest rates of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts allowed at 5v5. This is a great bounce back spot for the Penguins.

Despite faltering in a much more favorable matchup last night, the Penguins offense shouldn’t be put on your blacklist. They drive play extremely well and they have great finishing. They also have a dominant power play and the Montreal penalty kill has been weak. Though they don’t necessarily come cheap, the Penguins are one of the top offenses to target tonight (as they are usually).

The Penguins have been using the line of Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist, and Carl Hagelin against opposing top lines when the games are in Pittsburgh lately. This is good news as defensively the Drouin line is weaker than the Galchenyuk line. It’s also handy as the Malkin-Hornqvist duo is an old standby given that both players skate on the top power play unit as well. Even after a let down last night, this duo makes for a great pairing tonight.