NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, March 28th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:46:03 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

Florida Panthers					Toronto Maple Leafs
			Roberto Luongo					Frederik Andersen
			Record					Record
			39-28-7					45-24-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.01	2.99	19.05	80.93	Team Stats	3.29	2.82	23.67	82.46

Panthers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 59.23 CF/60 (16) | 59.92 CA/60 (9) | 2.27 xGF/60 (15) | 2.34 xGA/60 (12)

The Panthers are set in must-win mode from here on out as they look to chase down New Jersey for the second Wild Card spot. Florida’s offense as a whole hasn’t been great — their metrics come in middle of the pack — but they have a top six that creates matchup mismatches at 5v5. The overall offensive metrics have been a bit better than the year-to-date rates at 5v5, though high-danger shot attempts still lag a bit.

Though Toronto plays fast and they have a high rate of expected goals allowed at 5v5, they don’t really have any other ugly defensive metrics. They carry play well at 5v5 and in the last month they have been one of the best teams suppressing shot attempts. It seems likely that there will be offense in this game but there is some risk that it comes more from Toronto’s offense than Florida’s.

The good news for the top line of Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov, and Nick Bjugstad is that the Kadri line hasn’t been nearly as stout defensively as they have in years past. The bad news is that Kadri is still a solid two-way center and Morgan Rielly has developed into a strong defender. Florida’s top line has posted some highly impressive 5v5 numbers so they are a line that is capable of busting through less than lockdown matchups.

Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Jamie McGinn haven’t been as explosive, though they’ve still been strong this year. Unfortunately this line catches the Leafs with a now-healthy Auston Matthews. Matthews can carry play but it’s worth noting that his line has posted mediocre defensive metrics. That’s basically the theme for Florida tonight. Everything is one step forward, one step back with regards to the matchups.

Panthers Special Teams Outlook
Florida has been one of the better teams on the power play this year, but again we see the Panthers draw something of a middle of the road matchup. The per-hour rates of shot attempts and scoring chances allowed from Toronto’s penalty kill shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Panthers, but Toronto goes shorthanded an average of just 2.8 times per game.

Panthers Goaltending Outlook
It sounds like a nicked-up Roberto Luongo is close to returning, but James Reimer had his batteries recharged and is filling in quite well. There is also some #NarrativeStreet at play with Reimer returning to Toronto, but with points at a premium for Florida, Luongo will get the nod if he’s able. It’s a tough spot for either netminder as Toronto’s forward group is back to full strength with Matthews returning. This is one of the more dangerous offenses in the league and they can pile up goals in a hurry. Florida’s weak PK is a major concern against one of the best power plays in the league. Shot volume should be high so there is some GPP appeal, but there is also the potential for a rough outing here.