NLCS Game 3 Preview: Braves vs. Dodgers Odds & Prediction
Braves vs. Dodgers Odds
| Braves Odds | +158 |
| Dodgers Odds | -188 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 19 |
| Time | 5:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Tuesday evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves will battle in the National League Championship Series at Truist Park. Atlanta took care of business in the series opener, securing a 3-2 victory. In Game 2, the Braves stole a victory thanks to some questionable managerial decisions and poor defense from the Dodgers. Tonight, Atlanta will send Charlie Morton to the hill as they go for a commanding 3-0 series lead. He will be opposed by Walker Buehler. Oddsmakers are expecting the Dodgers to emerge victorious in this one, pricing Los Angeles as -188 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 3 of the NLCS.
Atlanta Braves (+158)
In 33 starts this year for Atlanta, Morton was outstanding with a 3.34 ERA, 3.12 xERA, and a 3.17 FIP. He ranked in the 78th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, and strikeout percentage. He was at his best when pitching away from Truist Park—posting a 2.98 FIP and a 1.03 WHIP. In his last 12 trips to the mound during the regular season, he delivered a 2.71 ERA and a 2.64 FIP. Morton was dominant the first time he saw Milwaukee in the division series—turning in a quality start in which he made only one costly mistake, a two run home run that cost Atlanta a win. On short rest in Game 4, he was less effective, surrendering two earned runs in only 3.1 innings. However, after having an entire week of rest between his last start and today, bettors should expect a strong outing from Morton tonight.
Against right-handed pitching this year, Atlanta ranked sixth in OPS, fourth in ISO, 13th in walk rate, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. Their high strikeout numbers make this offense vulnerable to low-scoring outputs due to their inconsistency hitting with runners in scoring position. Their high strikeout rate is especially problematic against pitchers, such as Buehler, who generate a lot of swings-and-misses. The Braves have no shortage of talent in this lineup, but they have an extremely tough task in this one against one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball. Run scoring opportunities could be at a premium for this group in Game 4.
Manager Brian Snitker has made it painfully obvious that he trusts Tyler Matzek, Will Smith, and Luke Jackson far more than any other member of his bullpen. After appearing in nearly every game of the division series, all Matzek, Smith, and Jackson have all appeared in both of the first two games of the NLCS. As this series goes on, the lack of reliable options in Atlanta’s relief unit is going to become a problem.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-180)
After multiple dominant seasons, Buehler is firmly entrenched as one of the best young starting pitchers in the league. In 33 starts this year, he posted a sensational 2.47 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and a 3.15 FIP. At Dodger Stadium, he delivered a 3.36 FIP and a 0.96 WHIP. In two postseason starts this October against the San Francisco Giants, he has a 3.38 ERA with nine strikeouts in 10.2 innings of work. Similar to Morton, Buehler has had a week of rest between his last start and tonight. Expect him to be sharp in a must-win game for Los Angeles.
The Dodgers lineup has no shortage of superstar talent, with names such as Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Will Smith, A.J. Pollock, and Cody Bellinger. However, this group was only slightly better than mediocre at the plate for the majority of the campaign. This inconsistency has carried over into the postseason. In eight playoff games, Los Angeles has been shutout twice, scored three runs or less five times, but also has two games with seven or more runs. Still, the Dodgers ranked seventh in OPS, eighth in ISO, second in walk rate, and 11th in strikeout percentage during the regular season against right-handed pitching. They are capable of doing damage this evening against Morton.
An intense battle in the division series against the Giants resulted in the Dodgers bullpen being less rested than they would have liked for it to have been entering the NLCS. A bullpen game to start the series against Atlanta did not help matters, as the Dodgers used eight relievers in Game 1. Manager Dave Roberts made some questionable decisions in Game 2, using Julio Urias, the projected Game 4 starter, out of the bullpen. Roberts also removed Brusdar Graterol, bringing in Kenley Jansen, who promptly gave up the game-winning hit on the first pitch that he threw. There are serious usage issues for this group for tonight’s contest.
Game 3 Pick
The Dodgers have the better starting pitcher and the better offense in this contest. Yet, bettors should have legitimate concerns about the Los Angeles bullpen going forward in this series. Buehler should be sharp on the mound, and the Dodgers’ bats should be locked-in with their season seemingly on the line in this matchup. Bet the run line on the first five innings, avoiding both the need for Los Angeles to win by two runs, and avoiding the bullpens.
PICK: Dodgers -0.5, First 5 innings (-110)
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