NLCS Preview: Dodgers vs. Braves Odds, Picks & Prediction
For the second consecutive season, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves will meet in the National League Championship Series. Los Angeles will be making their fifth trip to the NLCS in the last six years. Atlanta will be hoping for a different outcome this October after blowing a 3-1 series lead in 2020 in this spot.
Let’s take a look at how these rosters breakdown to see who has the edge in this series.
ALCS Preview: Dodgers vs. Braves
Offense v. RHP
- Los Angeles: 7th in OPS, 8th in ISO, 2nd in BB%, 11th in K%
- Atlanta: 6th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 13th in BB%, 23rd in K%
Offense v. LHP
- Los Angeles: 9th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 11th in BB%, 14th in K%
- Atlanta: 20th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 10th in BB%, 13th in K%
Both Los Angeles and Atlanta have high-powered offensive attacks capable of doing damage to opposing pitchers. However, the Dodgers have a decisive advantage at the plate in this series simply because they will get to face easier opposing pitchers. Though Atlanta has no shortage of power in their lineup, they do not match-up well against a number of the Dodgers’ high-strikeout, high-velocity arms on their pitching staff. Atlanta’s offensive production is likely going to be reduced to the number of home runs they are able to hit in this series. If Los Angeles can keep the ball in the yard, Atlanta could struggle to put runs on the board.
Starting Pitching Options
- Los Angeles: (LHP) Julio Urias, (RHP) Walker Buehler, (RHP) Max Scherzer, (RHP) Tony Gonsolin
- Atlanta: (LHP) Max Fried, (RHP) Charlie Morton, (RHP) Ian Anderson, (RHP) Huascar Ynoa
Both of these teams used only three starting pitchers in the division series, but the scheduling of the seven-game series necessitates both of these rotations being four-deep. The Dodgers have three Cy Young caliber pitchers ready to be deployed, twice each if necessary in the seven-game format. Having to start Gonsolin, who posted a 3.23 ERA and a 3.68 xERA in 2021, for one of these games is hardly a disadvantage. The Braves have an outstanding one-two punch with Fried and Morton, but Anderson and Ynoa have yielded inconsistent results for Atlanta since the All-Star break. Los Angeles is going to have the better starting pitcher in every game of this series. Thus, the Dodgers have the edge here as well.
Bullpen
The Dodgers have one of the most lethal back-ends of the bullpens in baseball with Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen, and Joe Kelly. The bridge to the late innings is strong with solid contributors such as Phil Brickford, Brusdar Graterol, Corey Knebel, and Alex Vesia—all of whom would occupy higher-leverage roles on less talented teams. During the final month of the regular season, the Los Angeles relief unit ranked eighth in bullpen FIP. When their Cy Young candidates are relieved, there is not much of a drop-off in run-prevention capabilities.
Atlanta’s relief unit was solid down the stretch as well—ranking ninth in bullpen FIP over the final month of the regular season. However, Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and A.J. Minter all come with known risks in the late innings. Manager Brian Stinker’s hesitation to go to other members of the bullpen was painfully obvious in the division series against the Milwaukee Brewers, as he called upon his top options repeatedly, despite usage concerns.
Both Los Angeles and Atlanta are strong in the latter frames, but over the course of a seven-game series, the Braves’ lack of depth is likely to cause them problems. In a five-game division series, Snitker was able to use Matzek, Jackson, and Smith in every game. That will not be the case in the NLCS. Los Angeles has the bullpen advantage as well.
NLCS Picks and Prediction
Last year, Atlanta had the benefit of having Ronald Acuna Jr. at the top of their lineup. This year, they have a makeshift collection of trade deadline acquisitions featuring Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Eddie Rosario trying to fill that void. Los Angeles added Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to a roster that was already loaded. The Braves have overachieved tremendously this season after the loss of their franchise cornerstone. Unfortunately for them, this will likely be the end of the road. The Dodgers are a safe bet to win this series, evident by their heavy market price.
While these two teams battled for seven games in 2020, it could be a much quicker wrap-up this time around due to the aforementioned differences in the roster. The Dodgers have the better offense, the better starting pitcher, and the deeper bullpen. Los Angeles has the tools to win this series in five or six games, with Atlanta’s explosive power at the plate being an unsustainable recipe for success against the Dodgers’ elite collection of starting pitching. It would be surprising if Los Angeles was not able to cover the -1.5 spread on the series.
- Series Winner: Los Angeles to win NLCS (-220)
- Series Length: 5 Games (+250)
- Series Spread: Los Angeles -1.5 (-126)
Image Credit: Imagn