Nuggets vs. 76ers: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions

Article Image

Nuggets vs. 76ers Odds

Nuggets Odds +4
76ers Odds -4
Over/Under 234.5
Date Sat, Jan. 28
Time 3:00 p.m.
TV ABC

NBA Saturday will begin at 3:00 PM ET on ABC with a matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers. Entering play, Denver (34-15) owns the best record in the Western Conference. Philadelphia (31-16) trails the Boston Celtics by 2.5 games for the best record in the Eastern Conference. Oddsmakers are anticipating a competitive atmosphere between these two teams this afternoon, pricing the 76ers as 4-point home favorites on the spread.

Denver Nuggets

Murray listed as questionable

In 41 games this season with Jamal Murray on the floor, the Nuggets are 29-12, compared to 5-3 when he is not in the lineup. Per Cleaning the Glass, Denver ranks in the 95th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 57th percentile in defensive efficiency when Murray is on the court this year, compared to the 69th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 36th percentile in defensive efficiency when he is on the sidelines.

Who will step up if Murray doesn’t play?

Per CourtIQ, when Murray is off of the floor this season, Aaron Gordon (+4.2%) sees the largest increase in usage. In these situations, he is averaging 24.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per 36 minutes of action. If Michael Porter Jr., who is also listed as questionable, does not play, it is even more likely that Gordon has a strong performance against the 76ers. When both Murray and Porter Jr. are off of the floor at the same time, Gordon sees a 5.7% increase in his usage.

If you are not in a state with legal sports betting, you can target Gordon’s props using our No House Advantage promo code in a DFS game.

Philadelphia 76ers

Embiid listed as questionable

Ahead of tip-off against the Nuggets, Joel Embiid is listed as questionable. However, it would be surprising if he did not suit up. Embiid was also listed as questionable prior to Thursday’s tilt against the Brooklyn Nets but played 35 minutes in a winning effort – scoring 26 points and collecting 10 rebounds.

Per Cleaning the Glass, the 76ers rank in the 85th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 90th percentile in defensive efficiency with Embiid on the floor this season, compared to the 51st percentile in offensive efficiency and the 30th percentile in defensive efficiency when he is on the sidelines. His status is worth monitoring during the early afternoon to confirm that he will be in uniform.

Who will step up for Philadelphia if Embiid doesn’t play?

If Embiid does end up sitting out on Saturday, bettors should be prepared to target James Harden and Tobias Harris on the player prop market. Per CourtIQ, Harden (+5.7%) and Harris (+4.6%) see the largest increase in usage when Embiid is not on the floor.

According to props.cash, Harden has dished out double-digit assists in four of his last five games played without Embiid in the lineup. In Harris’s last 10 games without Embiid, he has scored at least 16 points nine times.

Nuggets vs. 76ers – Picks & Predictions

Assuming Joel Embiid does play, Philadelphia is the sharper side in this contest. In their last 20 home games, the 76ers are 17-3 overall and have outscored their opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions. One of those three losses came against the Chicago Bulls on a night in which the 76ers were without Embiid – further strengthening their chances of securing a win on Saturday if their leading scorer is able to take the floor.

Be sure to confirm Embiid’s status prior to tip-off – trust Philadelphia to get a win in this spot.

PICK: 76ers -4 (-110, BetRivers)

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom