Olympic Basketball DFS Preview (Part 1)
It’s that time once every four years where we get to cheer on the USA in the one sport we dominate: basketball. Thankfully, we have DFS games to play, so we can watch the entire Olympic Tournament. DraftKings has a nice $3-entry $50K GPP, along with a solid $27-entry $25K as well for those of you who want to attack a tournament with a slightly smaller field. I’ve been really excited to take a break from the MLB grind to play some basketball!
This article will be in two parts. The first part will cover Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Croatia and France, and the second part, which will be released late Friday, will cover the last six teams.
This the first of a two part-article previewing the Olympic Basketball tournament. If you missed Part 2, you can read it here.
Editor’s Note: SATURDAY: The $50,000 International Basketball Tip-off is our next King of Summer contest. Join now!
Argentina
FIBA World Rank: 4th
How They Qualified for Rio: Finishing 2nd in the 2015 Americas Championships (lost to Venezuela in the final)
Exhibition Game Results:
Loss 96-92 vs Nigeria
Win 101-79 vs Nigeria
Loss 114-74 vs USA
Loss 85-84 vs Australia
Opening Game: Nigeria
Team Overview:
This is the last hurrah for Manu Ginobli and Luis Scola, who are likely playing in their final Olympics, but they are the go-to options for this Argentina though, and it’s no surprise that they are priced up as some of the most expensive options. Don’t be fooled by their limited minutes in this past NBA season; these two will be playing big minutes in this tournament. Facundo Campazzo is the future of this Argentina squad and will be a guy we are looking at in this tournament. He’s a guy I’m going to have a lot of in Argentina’s first game at only $5,000. If you are looking for some GPP fliers for the opening set of games against a Nigeria team that gives up a ton of points, look towards Nicolas Laprovittola ($4,000), Patricio Garino ($3,300), and Nicolas Brussino ($2,500). Laprovittola is the sixth man of the Argentina squad and will see the most consistent minutes of the three. Garino is at the tough-to-fill SF position and just signed with the Dallas Mavericks; if the old veterans falter, Garino could be the guy to take over the workload. Andres Nocioni ($6,800) is the other guy Argentina relies on, but I would pay the extra $500 for Diaw. Still, Nocioni is firmly in GPP consideration.
Australia
FIBA World Rank: 11th
How They Qualified for Rio: Won FIBA Oceania Championship
Exhibition Game Results:
Win 85-84 vs. Argentina
Loss 96-67 vs. Brazil
Loss 81-68 vs. Lithuania
Win vs. China
Opening Game: France
Team Overview:
The France-Australia game isn’t included on the DraftKings slate, so let’s focus on the Australian team in general. This is one of the tougher teams to figure out because Australia is pretty loaded with solid talent. There are five NBA players on the team: Patrick Mills, Andrew Bogut, Matthew Dellavedova, Aron Baynes, and Joe Ingles. Bogut is the face of the team, but he’s coming off an injury that forced him to play limited minutes in the warm-up exhibitions, so he’s restricted to GPP-only status until he proves he’s able to carry the full load. David Anderson would fill-in for Bogut if he can’t go full strength, so pay attention to the injury reports to see if Bogut can go. Even if Bogut can go, Anderson will be an important player on the team. In the NBA, we view Joe Ingles as a guy who stands in the corner and isn’t an active scoring producer, but that’s not the case in international play, as he was third in scoring for Australia during qualification tournament. Ingles should be a solid cash game play and will be low enough owned to even warrant GPP consideration. Australia is a team that you can target in matchups against Venezuela and China without thinking about it, and I’d even consider it against France and Serbia, but this is a team that you will be able to fade in its game against the United States.
Brazil
FIBA World Rank: 9th
How They Qualified for Rio: Automatic Berth as Host
Exhibition Game Results:
Win 96-67 vs. Australia
Win 64-62 vs. Lithuania
Opening Game: Lithuania
Team Overview:
Brazil is another tough team to read because as the host country, they didn’t have to qualify, and as result they sent the C-level team to the FIBA Americas. As a result, we only have a small sample to work off of. The five NBA players playing on Brazil are Nene Hilario, Leandro Barbosa, Marcelo Huertas, Raul Neto, and Cristiano Felicio. While none of these players are quality NBA starters, they should be a solid core in this Olympics. While Brazil will be in good spots in the tournament, I’m not sure the opening game against Lithuania is the spot. It has the lowest total of the first round of games at 145.5 points, and I think that’s a tad high. There are a few non-NBA players who will be DFS relevant for Brazil. Marcus Vieira has been starting for Brazil and makes for a solid option at $3,700. He’s not the top option, so there will be some inconsistencies, but he will have a few good games in the tournament. Also, Rafael Hettsheimeir is the third big in the Brazilian rotation behind Nene and Felicio, and at only $3,900, he could be a value in some of the faster games in the tournament.
China
FIBA World Rank: 14th
How They Qualified for Rio: Won FIBA 2015 Asia Championships
Exhibition Game Results:
Lots of bad losses (it’s really ugly)
Opening Game: USA
Team Overview:
Unlike the 76ers, which provided DFS goodness all year long, it’s going to be hard to find value on China, which is quite clearly the worst team in this tournament. That being said, it’s not impossible, the best play being Yi Jianlian. Yi is the star of team China, as he’s been the domestic MVP of the Chinese League every single year since 2013. If I’m rostering a Chinese player, it’s him. While he’s not cheap at $6500, I’m going to have exposure to him. After that, it’s a pure lottery. If you are looking for some cheap GPP options, you could look at the future of the Chinese team in Zhou Qi ($3,700) or Wang Zhelin ($3,600). Both players were second-round picks in the most recent NBA draft, and while the opening matchup against DeMarcus Cousins will be embarrassing for them, they should rebound in later matchups and could be viable cash options against the very small Venezuela team later on in the tournament. With 11 other teams to choose from, you really shouldn’t be getting a ton of your exposure from this Chinese squad.
Croatia
FIBA World Rank: 12th
How They Qualified for Rio: Won FIBA 2016 Qualifying Tournament in Italy
Opening Game: Spain
Team Overview:
Croatia is the team of the future. Much like Argentina 16 years ago, this is their first showcase on the international stage, so it’s tough to figure out how the young players will handle the pressure. Croatia has the must-play cash game player of the slate (and the entire tournament) in Bojan Bogdanovic ($7,700). Bojan, who has been the sharpshooter on the Brooklyn Nets the last two seasons, is the anchor of his team, averaging 24 points per game in the Qualifying Tournament in Italy. After Bogdanovic, the next best player comes from the list of Dario Saric ($6,300) and Mario Hezonja ($5,700). Saric was part of “The Process” of the 76ers and will be coming over to the US this year, so this is our first shot to see him on the international stage. Mario Hezonja is a sharpshooter, but I worry about his minutes, as Krunoslav Simon ($4300) was huge in the Qualifying Tournament final, scoring 21 points. In crunch time, I feel Simon will get the minutes over Hezonja, which makes Hezonja a fade for me. Saric averaged 14 points and 10 rebounds in the qualifying tournament and makes for a safe cash game play.
France
FIBA World Rank: 5th
How They Qualified for Rio: Won FIBA 2016 Qualification Tournament in Phillipines
Opening Game: Australia
Team Overview:
France has a team full of NBA players led by Tony Parker, Joffrey Lauvergne, Nicolas Batum, and Boris Diaw. All four will be contributors for the French team and make for solid GPP options in every game in their pool. Once again, don’t fall into the trap of thinking Parker’s limited minutes for the Spurs will translate to the Olympics; he will go all out here in this tournament and will play top-end level minutes. The deep GPP-worthy player that most players won’t be aware of is Nando De Colo. With Batum limited by injury, De Colo stepped up and averaged 17.2 points per game to lead France. De Colo is a guy who will play 20-22 minutes a game with a healthy Batum, and if Batum is limited, his minutes would skyrocket to the 30 range, which would make him an elite value play. Antoine Diot and Thomas Heurtel are a couple other role players who will be interesting as GPP fliers. They won’t crack 20 minutes in most games, but when they do, they could help you win a tournament, as they are both stat sheet monsters.
Don’t forget to tune into the GrindersLive Olympic Basketball show Saturday at 4:30 ET!