Olympic Basketball DFS Preview (Part 2)
It’s that time once every four years where we get to cheer on the USA in the one sport we dominate: basketball. Thankfully, we have DFS games to play, so we can watch the entire Olympic Tournament. DraftKings has a nice $3-entry $50K GPP, along with a solid $27-entry $25K as well for those of you who want to attack a tournament with a slightly smaller field. I’ve been really excited to take a break from the MLB grind to play some basketball!
This the second of a two part-article previewing the Olympic Basketball tournament. If you missed Part 1, you can read it here.
Editor’s Note: SATURDAY: The $50,000 International Basketball Tip-off is our next King of Summer contest. Join now, plus preview the teams here.
Lithuania
FIBA World Rank: 3rd
How They Qualified for Rio: Finishing 2nd in 2015 EuroBasket
Exhibition Game Results:
Win 87-83 vs Spain (OT)
Win 78-76 vs Spain
Loss vs Argentina
Win 81-68 vs Australia
Loss 64-62 vs Brazil
Opening Game: Brazil
Team Overview:
Lithuania is one of the teams that could upset Spain to face the USA in the gold medal game. Jonas Valanciunas ($8,400) is the franchise player for this Lithuania squad. Jonas averaged 16 points and eight rebounds in an impressive 27.5 minutes per game. There is a reason he is priced up, but despite the price, he is a good play in all formats. While this team has Thunder rookie Domantas Sabonis ($4,600), he probably won’t be a key part of this team. I would be looking towards Jonas Maciulis ($3,000) and Mantas Kalnietis ($5,200). Both played over 30 minutes per game in EuroBasket, and while I don’t expect them to match that in the Olympics, they should play 20+ minutes. At this price, Maciulus is the best punt cash game play you can make. Paulius Jankunas ($4,500) and Renaldas Seibutis ($4,300) are the other starters to consider in GPPs.
Nigeria
FIBA World Rank: 25th
How They Qualified for Rio: Won FIBA 2015 AfroBasket
Exhibition Game Results:
2 Wins vs China
Loss to Argentina
Loss to France
Win 96-92 vs Argentina
Loss 101-79 vs Argentina
Opening Game: Argentina
Team Overview:
Al-Farouq Aminu & Festus Ezeli were expected to lead this Nigeria team, but neither will be able to compete due to insurance issues. This means all the offensive burden will fall on Chamberlain Oguchi, who was the 2015 AfroBasket MVP after averaging 16 points per game. He is $6,100 and is my preferred option over a guy like Jimmy Butler for the USA. The other player you need to be aware of is Ike Diogu ($8,000) who averaged close to a double-double in AfroBasket. The price is insanely high, but he has potential as a contrarian GPP play. Other than that, Ben Uzoh and Michael Gbinije are in consideration for tournaments. Gbinjie is a second-round pick of the Detroit Pistons and has potential to be the upside play of the tournament. Argentina wouldn’t be the best matchup, but later on in the tournament, there will be spots to take a shot on him. Uzoh ($5,200) is another good GPP point guard as well. He won’t be the best in any category, but he’s going to help in all categories – think a poor man’s Nicolas Batum.
Serbia
FIBA World Rank: 6th
How They Qualified for Rio: Won FIBA 2016 Qualifying Tournament in Serbia
Exhibition Game Results:
Win 105-88 vs. France
Loss 79-74 vs. Argentina
Win 86-77 vs. Croatia
Opening Game: Venezuela
Team Overview:
Serbia is one of the easier teams to figure out in terms of DFS. Serbia is led by its two cornerstones in Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,000) (not to be confused with Bojan Bogdanovic) and Nikola Jokic ($7,200). Bogdan Bogdanovic is the most well-rounded player entering the tournament, averaging 18-5-6 in the qualification tournament. Nikola Jokic was an absolute beast in qualifications averaging, 10 points and seven boards, but now that they are in the Olympics, he will play a bit more and should be a double-double machine. While the competition will be harder in this tournament, Venezuela is not the example of that, as they are the lowest-ranked FIBA team in the field. Milos Teodosic ($4,800) is the third-best player on Serbia, but he was injured in the last game against Croatia. I haven’t been able to find an update on his availability, but if he can’t go, Stefan Jovic ($2,200) would take the minutes and would be a solid value option. I’d also pay attention to Miroslav Raduljica ($3,300) because when he plays alongside Jokic, they will be tough to stop.
Spain
FIBA World Rank: 2nd
How They Qualified for Rio: Won 2015 EuroBasket
Exhibition Game Results:
Loss 87-83 vs Lithuania (OT)
Loss 78-76 vs Lithuania
2 wins over Venezuela
Opening Game: Croatia
Team Overview:
Spain is led by four NBA players in Pau Gasol, Ricky Rubio, Nikola Mirotic and Jose Calderon. All four guys are solid GPP plays, but I worry about the likely massive ownership on Gasol and Rubio. I think you can fade them in tournaments given the higher-upside options on Serbia and Croatia. MThe non-NBA players that you need to be aware of for Spain are Felipe Reyes and Juan Carlos Navarro. Reyes is a bench guy who has double-double upside and will take over the role originally planned for Marc Gasol. Juan Carlos Navarro will likely be the starting shooting guard or sixth man for Spain and provides upside at this reduced price. I’m going to have lot of exposure to Spain in this matchup against Croatia which is one of the weaker defensive teams in the field.
USA
FIBA World Rank: 1st
How They Qualified for Rio: Won FIBA 2014 World Cup
Exhibition Game Results:
Win vs. Argentina 111-74
Win vs China 106-57
Win vs China 107-57
Win vs. Venezuela 80-45
Win vs. Nigeria 110-66
Opening Game: China
Team Analysis:
Team USA is the deepest and most balanced team in the entire tournament. I’d love to say I have an expert opinion on which USA guys will see 20 minutes instead of 16, but I honestly think its going to be more random than something we can predict. With most DFS players only aware of the players who have played in the NBA combined with no US players projected for big minutes, you have to ask is it worth playing them. The only player I could see myself rostering is DeMarcus Cousins because he can get 15 and 12 in 20 minutes with the international rules.
This is a good point to mention how the international game is different than the US game. The three major changes are 1) you can rebound the ball off the rim, 2) the 3 point line is closer in the international game, and 3) the zone D rule. In international basketball, you are allowed to play a traditional zone defense, which makes spot-up shooters more valuable than in the NBA as they will have more room to operate. When it comes down to it, The United States is simply a team to fade due to overpricing, lack of minutes, and the ownership they will attract fading them in tournaments the best move.
Venezuela
FIBA World Rank: 22nd
How They Qualified for Rio: Won FIBA 2015 Americas Championship
Exhibition Game Results:
2 Losses vs Spain
Loss vs. USA 80-45
Loss vs. Lithuania 84-53
Opening Game: Serbia
Team Analysis:
Venezuela is the Cinderella story of this tournament, shockingly winning the 2015 FIBA Americas to qualify for the Olympics. While they had shown ability to compete since then, they have had a very rocky exhibition season heading into the tournament. John Cox is the best player on this team, averaging 12 points in the exhibition season, but Venezuela is one of the more balanced teams in the tournament. Other guys worthy of GPP consideration are Windi Graterol, Nestor Comenares (the #2 option on Venezuela), and Gregory Vargas. While Venezuela runs these guys out for big minutes, Venezuela is projected to go 0-5 in this tournament, so don’t get too carried away playing Venezuela players. They will serve as GPP differentiation plays for me.
Don’t forget to tune into the GrindersLive Olympic Basketball show Saturday at 4:30 ET!