2023 Open Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-07-19 13:29:25

This week, Joe Cistaro delivers The Open Championship golf betting picks as golfers prepare for Hoylake.

• Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite.
• Royal Liverpool experienced an extensive overhaul since the 2014 Open Championship.
• Scottie Scheffler continues to dominate every statistical category save putting.
• Find out where you can test out Fanatics Sportsbook before the golf tournament begins.
• More Open Championship details and tips below!

Hoylake hosts the 151st Open Championship in what will surely be a fantastic close to major championship golf. The stars — metaphorically and actually — will align as Rory McIlroy looks to fend off a talented field in search of his fifth major. After a win in Scotland, will McIlroy manifest what appears to be destiny after a close call at St. Andrews in 2022? Will Scottie Scheffler roll in enough putts to cash in on his spectacular form? Will an Englishman hoist the trophy at home? Be sure to give our Open Championship Betting Preview a look before going over this week’s PGA betting picks.

2023 Open Championship Betting Odds

At the time of this writing – Wednesday, July 19, 2023 – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

2023 Open Championship Betting Preview

• Course: Royal Liverpool (Hoylake)
• Date: July 20 – 23
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,383
• Greens: Bentgrass

Key Statistics

• SG: Approach
• SG: OTT
• Fairways
• Scrambling
• SG: ARG
• SG: Putting

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Open Championship Picks and Predictions

Viktor Hovland – Best Odds +2500 (FanDuel)

I grabbed Viktor right after finishing my preview article at 22/1 for 2.25 units. We are loosening up the purse strings a bit this week because this is the final major of the golf season.

Hovland’s reputation as one of the best ball-strikers in the field requires little to no discussion. If the weather does not get out of control, Hovland — like others — can take this course apart. Driving the ball will be important but proximity to flags will be even more important as players aim to gather as many opportunities at birdie as possible.

Viktor has knocked on this door a handful of times. I don’t want to miss out when he kicks the door in. We open our card with Hovland and hope he finally breaks through.

Xander Schauffele – Best Odds +2500 (Caesars)

Xander Schauffele has the type of golf game that can adapt to any conditions. If the weather gets out of hand, Schauffele’s all-around skill set will suit just fine in Liverpool.

After winning the Scottish Open last season, we know that links golf will not deter Schauffele from getting the job done. Xander is above average or great in every statistical category that we are focusing on this week, with just a touch of difficulty around the greens. That said, these are not standard PGA Tour green complexes. His accuracy off the tee and on approach will suit him well to avoid pot bunkers and any boundary issues.

Schauffele shows up at major championships and has had a handful of close calls of his own. I printed his ticket at 27/1. You can still find him at +2500 at many sports betting sites.

Justin Thomas – Best Odds +8000 (DraftKings)

I mean, what the heck is going on here? Are we entering the Twilight Zone? The 2022 PGA Champion can be bet for 80/1 at sports betting sites?

His recent form be damned. I will not be that guy that kicks himself for avoiding this type of talent at 80/1 if the switch flips. Sadly, I grabbed Thomas at 66/1 before the number blew up. However, for those of you who have not completed your card yet, Justin Thomas at 80/1 feels like a must-add at a nominal fee. He flashed some form at the Genesis Scottish Open before hitting neutral over the weekend. He has a 9th-place finish recently at the Travelers.

The talent and win equity are there. I am going to bet this blindly and inevitably lose money until I don’t.

Adam Scott – Best Odds +9000 (PointsBet)

Finally, with two more expensive plays at the top of our card, I need to balance with another cheaper option at the bottom. Adam Scott, rife with major tournament experience, has been in really good form this season. His price tag does not tell the story of his season, and even with a missed cut at the Scottish Open and the US Open, Scott has played phenomenally well this season with an emphasis on short game and putting.

Scott sits 8th in strokes gained putting and short game in this field. I had to do a double take as well, as Scott is normally known for precise ball-striking. If he is able to put both facets together this week, his 90/1 tag will feel like a great bargain.

While we will place the outright bet, Scott makes plenty of sense as a top finisher option too given his form this season and experience at various Open Championships. If the weather is dormant, Scott has the precise ball-striking ability to go low. We add him at a microscopic price.

2023 Open Championship Betting Card

Open Championship Total Units in Play – 5.65

2023 Net Units: +29.5

We skipped the last few weeks because of a much-needed family beach vacation. At the Rocket Mortgage Classic, we lost 7.3 units on our myriad outright bets and attempted Rory McIlroy doubles for the Open Championship. Surely, having Rory in my pocket going into this week would have been nice. That said, we keep the card tight to start and follow the weather before making our final bets.

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Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images