Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Prediction: Is Charlie Wright?
Is Charlie Wright? explores one NFL bet each week based on a major decision point. Ideally, this article will lay out a case for the bet in a thorough manner, giving the reader the opportunity to either agree with the perspective and tail the bet or disagree with the breakdown and fade the pick.
What to Expect Each Week
Quick primer for this article. Aside from being an excellent pun (hat tip to Craig Rosenshein), the title of this piece is the basic concept. I’ll make a pick and give an explanation centered around a key decision point. Agree with how I see the pick playing out? Lock it in. Disagree with the take? Fade away.
The goal is to go beyond simply giving out a pick each week by providing the insight to make your own picks.
Week 1 Pick: Packers Moneyline (-110 on Fanatics)
Reason: Jordan Love isn’t a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers.
We haven’t seen anything from Love, but it won’t take much to be better than Rodgers was last season. The veteran was 21st in EPA per play, 25th in yards per attempt and 20th in completion percentage. Green Bay was 14th in points per game and 17th in yards per game.
Rodgers certainly took some liberties when it came to play calling and execution, but now Matt LaFleur will be back in full control. Before taking over as head coach of the Packers in 2019, LaFleur was the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2017 and the Titans’ offensive coordinator in 2018. LA led the league in scoring under LaFleur. Tennessee … not so much, but that was with a mix of Marcus Mariota and Blaine Gabbert at QB. Love can’t be that bad.
Chicago’s defense was dead last in points allowed in 2022. They added a couple of linebackers in free agency (Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards), but that was about it. It should still be a good matchup for Love, who might have better weapons than Rodgers did last season. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are second-year breakout candidates, and Green Bay added pass catchers Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave in the 2023 draft. It’s a young group, but there’s plenty of upside.
If Rodgers was still in Green Bay, they would be decent favorites. I don’t expect the offense to take a step back this season, and it could even take a step forward.
PICK: Green Bay Moneyline (-110 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
NFL Player Props for Week 1
Will also be highlighting a handful of prop picks every week!
Ryan Tannehill Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Tennessee is a slight underdog on the road in New Orleans. Feels like a heavy Derrick Henry game. The Saints also had the second-best pass defense in terms of yards per game last season. Tannehill averaged just 211 yards per game in 2022 and shouldn’t be asked to do too much in this matchup.
JK Dobbins Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on DraftKings)
Dobbins missed all of 2021 with a torn ACL, didn’t look fully healthy in the first half of last season, and then missed six games due to continued knee issues. But once he came back, Dobbins ripped off a four-game stretch of 397 rushing yards on 57 carries. That included torching Pittsburgh’s top 10 rush defense for 200+ yards over two matchups.
Houston was dead last in rushing yards allowed per game in 2022. Adding safety Jimmie Ward should help, but this is still a plus matchup. Baltimore is also the biggest favorite on the slate. Dobbins should get plenty of work and likely needs just 12-14 carries to hit this over.
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