Packers vs. 49ers Player Props: Top NFL Picks for McCaffrey and Jones
What kind of performances can we expect during the NFL Divisional round from Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for today – Saturday, January 20, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
Saturday’s 2-game NFL playoff slate will conclude with an NFC showdown between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers. Jordan Love and the Packers are fresh off of a blowout victory on the road against the heavily-favored Cowboys and have won 7 of their last 9 games overall. Brock Purdy and the 49ers finished the regular season with the best record in the NFC, earning them a first-round bye.
Ahead of kickoff in this Wild Card matchup, the 49ers are favored by 10 points on the spread. The over/under is set at 50.5 points.
If looking to wager on the player prop market instead of a side or total today, we have three prop leans for today’s matchup between the Packers and 49ers!
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Packers vs. 49ers NFL Player Props – Wild Card Round
- Christian McCaffrey OVER 90.5 Rushing Yards
- Christian McCaffrey UNDER 4.5 Receptions
- Aaron Jones UNDER 3.5 Receptions
Christian McCaffrey OVER 90.5 Rushing Yards (-110), FanDuel
During the final 8 weeks of the regular season, Green Bay went 6-2, but their success was driven almost entirely by their offensive production. In those 8 games, the Packers ranked 26th in defensive EPA/play and 25th in success rate. They ranked 15th in EPA/play and 16th in success rate against the run. This fall, Green Bay allowed 100+ rushing yards to Bijan Robinson, David Montgomery, Jaylen Warren, and Isiah Pacheco – none of whom are nearly as talented at Christian McCaffrey. In a win-or-go-home atmosphere, expect the 49ers to rely heavily on their star running back against a beatable run defense.
Christian McCaffrey UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-125), DraftKings
Tony Pollard had 7 receptions against the Packers last weekend, but that had more to do with the fact that the Cowboys trailed by 20+ points for the majority of the contest than anything else. Prior to that, Green Bay had not allowed more than 4 receptions in a game to a running back since Josh Jacobs in Week 5. The under is worth a small stab here.
Aaron Jones UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-135), BetMGM
Entering play on Saturday, Aaron Jones only has five games this season with 4+ receptions. The 49ers were excellent defending running backs as pass catchers during the regular season, ranking 8th in defensive DVOA against the position. The primary risk here is that the Packers find themselves trailing by a significant margin late in the game, which could set up a situation in which the defense is allowing a lot of underneath, short completions to force the offense to eat the clock. In a competitive game script, the under has good value in this spot.
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