Packers vs. Cowboys Player Props: Top NFL Picks for Ferguson, Love, and Pollard
What kind of performances can we expect during the Wild Card round from Jake Ferguson, Jordan Love, and Tony Pollard? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for today – Sunday, January 14, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
Sunday’s 2-game NFL postseason slate begins at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX, with a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. Both starting quarterbacks in this game, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott, finished in the top-2 in EPA/play and success rate from Week 10 to the end of the regular season, which should mean plenty of offensive fireworks at Jerry World this afternoon.
Ahead of kickoff in this Wild Card matchup, the Cowboys are favored by 7 points on the spread. The over/under is set at 51 points.
If looking to wager on the player prop market instead of a side or total today, we have three prop leans for today’s matchup between the Packers and Cowboys!
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Packers vs. Cowboys NFL Player Props – Wild Card Round
- Jake Ferguson OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards
- Jordan Love UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Tony Pollard OVER 2.5 Receptions
Jake Ferguson OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards (-125), bet365
Entering the postseason, Jake Ferguson has posted at least 44 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games, with the lone outlier in that stretch coming against a Detroit defense that finished the regular season ranked 7th in DVOA against tight ends. On Sunday afternoon, Ferguson gets a favorable matchup against Green Bay, which ranked 26th in DVOA against tight ends this fall.
This season, the Packers allowed a number of strong performances by opposing tight ends, including 44 yards to Cole Kmet, 56 yards to Sam LaPorta, 88 yards to T.J. Hockenson, 57 yards to Donald Parham, 47 yards to Sam LaPorta, 81 yards to Travis Kelce, 44 yards to Cade Otton, and 41 yards to Cole Kmet. Ferguson has been targeted at least 6 times in six consecutive games, making him a strong candidate to go over this market number today.
Jordan Love UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115), bet365
From Week 10 to Week 18, Jordan Love ranked 3rd in EPA/play and 4th in success rate among qualified signal callers, throwing multiple touchdown passes in 8 of 9 contests during that stretch. Putting up those numbers against any strength of schedule is notable, but it’s still worth pointing out that Love faced only two playoff teams during that impressive run – one of which was the defenseless Lions, and the other was the banged-up Chiefs at home. Young quarterbacks making their playoff debut have struggled mightily in recent decades, going 17-36 SU and 17-35-1 ATS since 2022, per Clevta. Love could struggle in this matchup against a Dallas defense that has held each of their last five opponents to 1 passing touchdown or fewer.
Tony Pollard OVER 2.5 Receptions (-142), FanDuel
Tony Pollard has posted 4 consecutive games with fewer than 3 receptions ahead of kickoff on Sunday, but that streak could come to an end against a Green Bay defense that finished the regular season ranked 27th in DVOA against running backs. In the final two weeks of the regular season alone, the Packers allowed 7 receptions to running backs, facing the Vikings and Bears. Overall, 11 different running backs had at least 3 receptions against the Packers in a game this year. Before his recent drought, Pollard had at least 3 receptions in 10 of his prior 12 games. It would not be surprising to see him back in the mix as a pass catcher today.
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