Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Preview, Picks & Prediction — Wednesday, Sept. 29
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | +250 |
| Dodgers Odds | -310 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 29 |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
On Wednesday evening, the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers will continue a three game set at Dodger Stadium. Earlier this summer, many pundits had this game circled on the schedule, thinking that the National League West division might be decided in this series. However, after having the league’s best record through the first 50 games of the season, the Padres have completely collapsed, losing 31 of their last 42 games, and have already been eliminated from the postseason. The Dodgers are surprisingly in a dog fight with the San Francisco Giants for the division crown, trailing them by two games with less than a week remaining in the regular season. Tonight, San Diego will send Ryan Weathers to the hill, who will be opposed by Max Scherzer. Oddsmakers are confidently projecting Los Angeles to emerge victorious, pricing the Dodgers as -310 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
San Diego Padres
In 91.2 innings of work in 2021, Weathers has been one of baseball’s most hittable pitchers with a 5.01 ERA, 5.12 xERA, and a 5.31 FIP. On the year, Weathers ranks in the 18th percentile or worse in average exit-velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout-percentage, whiff- and chase-rate. He was briefly demoted to the minor leagues in mid-June. Since being recalled, Weathers owns a dreadful 7.71 ERA and a 6.43 FIP. The Padres have begun to limit him to one turn through the order in his last five appearances to mitigate his ineffectiveness.
Since the trade deadline, it is hard to find a team that has hit the ball worse than the Padres. Since the trade deadline, this lineup ranks 25th in OPS and 26th in ISO. They also rank 24th in strikeout-rate, which makes a matchup against Scherzer especially challenging. “(player-popup #fernando-tatis)Fernando Tatis Jr has opened the door in the National League Most Valuable Player race, allowing our “+3000 long-shot Bryce Harper to emerge as the frontrunner for the award. Tatis has had a very pedestrian second half of the year with only 13 home runs, and 35 RBI since July 16.
Manager Jayce Tingler absolutely destroyed a very talented relief unit in San Diego this summer, insisting on going with multiple bullpen games per week in the second half of the campaign. After a stellar first half, the Padres relief corps ranks 19th in bullpen FIP since the All-Star break. Even having a scheduled off-day on Monday and only using three relievers yesterday is unlikely to be enough to remedy a bullpen that has been completely burnt out for the better part of a month.
Los Angeles Dodgers
As the regular season nears its conclusion, Scherzer is the betting favorite to win the National League Cy Young award. Since being acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline, he has been dominant with a 1.43 ERA and a 1.56 FIP. In that span, he is striking-out a videogame-like 35.7 percent of opposing hitters against a miniscule 3.4 percent walk-rate. Of 143 balls that have been put in play against him in a Los Angeles uniform, only four (2.8 percent) have been barreled. Scherzer works ahead in the count better than almost any pitcher in the big-leagues, getting a first-pitch strike against 68.4 percent of hitters since the beginning of August. Bettors should expect another excellent outing from him this evening.
It is hard to imagine that a lineup featuring Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Justin turner, and A.J. Pollock could be mediocre, but that is exactly what the Dodgers have been since mid-July. Los Angeles ranks only 16th in OPS and 11th in ISO since the All-Star break. Yesterday, this group only managed two runs against a combination of Yu Darvish, Reiss Knehr, Javier Guerra, and Ross Detwiler. The Dodgers should have an easier time at the plate in this one against Weathers.
Throughout the second half of the year, Los Angeles has won a lot of low-scoring affairs, in no small part, because of a dominant pitching staff. The starters do a great job getting deep into the ballgame, which limits usage concerns for the top relievers. Last night was a perfect example of how this team wins games, even when they struggle at the plate. Walker Buehler delivered seven strong innings before turning the ball over to Joe Kelly and Blake Treinen in the eighth and the ninth frame. Los Angeles is a dominant force in all facets of the game. Expect that to continue tonight.
Padres vs. Dodgers Picks
Entering play, the Padres have lost 14 of their last 17 games. The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 16 contests. In tonight’s matchup, Los Angeles once again has the better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, and the better offense.
The money line is heavier than most bettors care to wager on. Instead of playing the full game run line, bet on Scherzer and the Dodgers to have the lead after the first five innings at a much more reasonable price.
PICK: Dodgers -1, First 5 innings (-145)
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