Primetime Parlay: Patriots vs. Steelers Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-12-07 20:24:08

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun Same Game Parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our Same Game Parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Same Game Parlay for the New England Patriots versus the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football.

Well, let’s not waste any time. We desperately need something to sweat for this Thursday Night Football game. We must create a Same Game Parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook for the Patriots and Steelers on Amazon Prime Video. Al Michaels will be in rare form for this one.

The Steelers are still in the playoff hunt even without Kenny Pickett. The Patriots must look to the future after what will go down as Bill Belichick’s worst season as a head coach. With a defense that is still game to compete each week, New England will look to stop Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers offense from scoring points on Thursday night. Points will be at a premium. Let’s preview the game and build an SGP for Thursday Night Football.

Playing DFS tonight? Try out SimLabs, now in beta, to work on Showdown lineups for tonight’s game.

Patriots vs. Steelers Same Game Parlay

As of this writing, FanDuel posts the Steelers as 6-point home favorites with a measly 30.5 game total. The majority of the money and tickets side with the New England Patriots per ScoresAndOdds. Given how ineffective both offenses have been in 2023, I could see why 6 points would be enticing to sports bettors.

The game total is one of the lowest we will see this football season. Opening at 35 points, the number has been bet to 30.5. And why not? Both teams are in the bottom 5 in scoring offense, and the Patriots averaged 4.3 points per game over the last 3 weeks. With no Rhamondre Stevenson and Kenny Pickett, the already-inefficient offenses lose a key dynamic.

Let’s take a look at the relevant offensive statistics for the two teams. Brace yourself.

Pittsburgh Offense
28th — 16.0 PPG
25th — 4.9 YPP
26th — 6.3 Passing YPA
12th — 4.3 Rushing YPA

New England Offense
32nd — 12.3 PPG (4.3 PPG last 3)
28th — 4.7 YPP
29th — 5.9 Passing YPA
22nd — 4.0 Rushing YPA

The New England offense will be missing Rhamondre Stevenson due to an ankle injury. In his absence, Ezekiel Elliott toted the ball 21 times (17 carries). Demario Douglas will miss Thursday Night Football with a concussion. JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker are both questionable but practiced on a limited basis throughout the week. Losing either of these receivers would be even worse for an offense completely absent of playmakers.

For the Steelers, Najee Harris is questionable with a knee injury. Harris’ props are off the books at the time of this writing which seems to make his absence even more likely. If Harris does suit up, attacking the under on his yardage or attempts prop seems prudent against the top-ranked defense for rushing yards per attempt. The Patriots stuff opposing running games weekly, and Harris does not have the same explosive playmaking ability possessed by Jaylen Warren.

Of course, a bigger loss might be Kenny Pickett. Mitch Trubisky takes over the reins as Pickett recovers from ankle surgery. Trubisky was pedestrian enough in relief of Pickett last week but will face a very tough test tonight. The Patriots rank 6th in defensive yards per play, with the 15th-best scoring defense. That said, an already stout run defense will likely force Trubisky to beat them. Points will surely be at a premium on Thursday night.

The Steelers fit the mold of a bend-but-don’t-break defense this season. While very average when it comes to yards-per-attempt numbers, the Steelers have the 6th-best scoring defense and rank 10th in sack percentage. The Steelers tighten up when teams have scoring opportunities. The opposing offense could struggle to score without a defense on the field so, again, points will be at a premium on Thursday night.

Let’s take a look at what ParlayIQ offers with its thousands of simulations of tonight’s game.

Najee Harris is expected to play based on reports as of 1:30 PM ET.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Thursday Night Football

Warren Under 16.5 Receiving Yards
Smith-Schuster Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
Henry Over 21.5 Receiving Yards

Jaylen Warren Under 16.5 Receiving Yards

So, we are unsure about the status of Najee Harris. To be honest, I don’t care either way.

I am jumping on the side of ParlayIQ and looking at this under. Warren is electric, but our perception of his ability as a pass catcher is clouded by a handful of big plays. Warren has remained under this number 4 games in a row. I can’t imagine that the success rate will get better with Trubisky under center.

If Harris ends up playing, we are likely in a better spot. Despite the prowess of the New England front, the Steelers are likely going to keep this game close by running the air out of the football like their counterparts.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 15.5 Receiving Yards

Demario Douglas and Rhamondre Stevenson typically see 13-14 combined targets per game. Those targets are not likely downfield.

Who could fill in those roles? Well, Ezekiel Elliott is likely to receive his largest volume in his 2023 campaign because the Patriots are going to want to run a ton. At some point, the Patriots will need to pass the football. Zappe will be more likely to hit receivers on quick passes or in the short part of the field.

JuJu usually sees 1-2 targets per game. Perhaps we get to 3 or 4 and he catches a couple for a modest gain.

Hunter Henry Over 21.5 Receiving Yards

See above. Except, Hunter Henry is typically more involved in the offense.

Henry seems to have a baseline of about 3 targets per game, although he has exceeded that number in 3 games in a row. Given the loss of the aforementioned skill players, we might get 5-6 Henry targets on Thursday night.

Granted, with Zappe at quarterback, who knows if those targets amount to much. Henry has exceeded this total in 6 games in 2023.