2023 PGA Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting picks for the 2023 PGA Championship. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!
Get excited! The year’s second major is upon us and the boys from LIV are back for a star-studded field at Oak Hill Country Club just outside of Rochester, New York. The 2023 PGA Championship promises to be an interesting affair on a course that was redesigned and tailored to test the modern player. Strap yourselves in, give our PGA Championship Betting Preview a read, and let’s start filling out our card for our second major championship of the season.
2023 PGA Championship at BetMGM Sportsbook
At the time of this writing – May 16th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.
| Golfer | Odds (5/15) |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +750 |
| Jon Rahm | +800 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1200 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1600 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1800 |
| Brooks Koepka | +2200 |
| Justin Thomas | +2200 |
| Tony Finau | +2200 |
| Dustin Johnson | +2500 |
| Jason Day | +2800 |
| Sungjae Im | +3000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +3000 |
| Cameron Smith | +3300 |
| Cameron Young | +3300 |
| Collin Morikawa | +3300 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +3300 |
| Max Homa | +3300 |
| Jordan Spieth | +3500 |
| Sam Burns | +4000 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +4000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +5000 |
2023 PGA Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
- Course: Oak Hill CC
- Date: May 18 – 21
- Par: 70
- Yardage: 7,394
- Greens: Bentgrass
Key Statistics
- SG: Approach
- SG: OTT
- SG: Par 4
- SG: ARG
- Proximity 175 yards
- SG: Putting
- Sand Saves
Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.
Justin Thomas +3500 (DraftKings)
When was the last time Justin Thomas putted well? Looking back we have a few blips over the last year since he won the PGA Championship, but… The last time Justin Thomas putted well, gaining 6.3 strokes on the field, was at last year’s PGA Championship where he made a Sunday run for the ages. The collapse behind him does not change the fact that Thomas played out of his mind when it was most crucial to win his second major.
So, why not run it back? His ball striking numbers are more than solid across the board over his last 36 rounds. Where he lacks, is simply, putting. Over his last 36 rounds, he is 9th in T2G and 4th around the green. While the putter has been a nuisance, this course and the weather seem to set up for a mucky brand of golf. Thomas possesses no issue getting up-and-down when he does miss the green and when he does hit greens he is usually dialed in.
He seems to have the layout of the PGA Championship figured out. 35/1 feels like a number everyone will regret not betting late Sunday. I won’t. Let’s book 0.75 units at DraftKings.
Cameron Young +3300 (BetMGM)
Full disclosure. I have a future on Cam Young to win the PGA Championship dating back a few months after a wildly successful session at a poker room. Instead of walking out happy with my winnings, I decided to make a pit stop at the sportsbook and put in a few tickets. One of those tickets was Cameron Young to win what felt like a home game at +2800 for 2.5 units (it was a really good poker session).
Now, I am kicking myself for getting worse odds than are currently available. Further, this course seems to be set up to favor players with excellent short games or at least no holes. Young does not excel around the greens. The good news is if its cold the course should play even longer than the 7,400 yard advertisement and Young is in the top three in length off the tee.
Admittedly, I thought he would have already booked his first victory at this point. That said, I don’t mind anyone taking a shot on talent we’ve seen contend at three majors over the last year. I am a bit overextended here but a Cameron Young victory would get us unstuck in a huge way. Who is riding with me?
Cameron Smith +3500 (PointsBet)
On to the Cameron I want to bet. Cam Smith is back in form on the LIV tour and while I don’t know what that really means, it seems he is a bit more focused on golf than he was after dominating the 2022 season.
Smith lost in a playoff in Tulsa to Dustin Johnson but seems to be a great fit for the layout this week. Several trees were removed from Oak Hill leaving a bit more room for players that miss off the tee. Fairways were widened. Finally, we know that there are not many players we trust more after his tee shot than Cam Smith. He very well could be the best player on Earth after his opening tee shot. Will he find fairways enough to dial in approach? Will he rely on his exceptionally creative short game? If the final score is pretty low (-10 or worse), I think Cam Smith has to be considered a top option this week. At 35/1, he feels eerily similar to Justin Thomas. I don’t want to live with regret on Sunday night. Book him as well for 0.75 units.
Joaquin Niemann +9000 (FanDuel)
Joining his LIV brethren on our initial betting card is Joaquin Niemann. Remember the days when Niemann was the next big thing after his win at Genesis when he ran over the field? The PGA Championship and this course in particular seem to fit that version of Joaquin.
That said, I don’t know what version of Niemann we have at Oak Hill. He played well at Augusta National when he finished in the top 20. He is an unbelievable driver of the golf ball and seems to possess a perfect blend of distance with precision. When he ran over the field at Genesis, Niemann put on a ball striking clinic. While the putter is not the strongest tool in his bag, his game around the green seemed to improve prior to leaving for the LIV Tour.
Fast forward to this week and 90/1 just feels like too good a price to pass up on. Niemann does not feel like a 90/1 longshot at any event so I will just take these odds and run with them on FanDuel.
2023 PGA Championship Betting Card
| Golfer | Odds | Units | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | +3500 | 0.75 | 26.25 |
| Cameron Young | +2800 | 2.5 | 70 |
| Cam Smith | +3500 | 0.75 | 26.25 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +9000 | 0.30 | 27 |
PGA Championship Total Units in Play – 4.3
2023 Net Units: -34.75
We tried to stay as cheap as possible last weekend so we can splurge a bit this weekend. I will surely be adding outrights and prop bets before the event and will hopefully post on Twitter ahead of Thursday morning. Good luck with all of your bets this weekend!
Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with legal golf betting? Check out our Underdog promo code, one of the top DFS apps for fantasy golf pick’em.
Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.
Image Credit: Getty Images