Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Game 2 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Phillies vs. Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | +140 |
| Braves Odds | -160 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 9 |
| Time | 6:07 PM ET |
| TV | TBS |
The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a hot start this postseason, having won each of their first three games. Philadelphia shut out the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the Division Series, which was the first time since August 28, 2021 that the Braves failed to score a run in a game at Truist Park. In Game 2, the Phillies will hand the ball to their ace, Zack Wheeler, who will be opposed by Max Fried for the Braves. First pitch is scheduled for 6:07 PM ET on TBS.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Braves as -160 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler looking to keep Phillies’ win streak alive
Dating back to the last weekend of the regular season, Philadelphia has won four consecutive games against three different opponents, the Mets, Marlins, and Braves. Zack Wheeler played an integral role in Philadelphia’s Game 1 victory in the Wild Card round against Miami, tossing 6.2 innings while allowing only 1 earned run on 5 hits.
Wheeler was locked in during that matchup, getting ahead in the count against 19-of-24 batters he faced. However, it was far from an outlier performance from the Phillies’ ace, who finished the regular season ranked in the 88th percentile in xERA and 93rd percentile in walk rate among qualified starting pitchers.
Pitching on the road this season, Wheeler posted a 2.60 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, and had a strong 27.7% strikeout rate against a 4.8% walk percentage. In two starts against the Braves, he allowed only 1 earned run in 14 innings of work. He is capable of delivering strong results once again on Monday as he looks to move his team to one win away from the National League Championship Series.
Philadelphia offense putting extreme pressure on opponents
During the regular season, Atlanta’s catcher, Sean Murphy, ranked in the 86th percentile in pop time. However, that did not stop the Phillies from stealing 5 bases on 6 attempts in the series opener. Philadelphia was extremely aggressive against Miami in the Wild Card round as well, taking advantage of their speed on the basepaths.
Philadelphia’s ability to steal bases, coupled with their ability to hit for extra bases, has allowed them to consistently put pressure on their opponents so far in October. In two games against Miami, Philadelphia had 23 at-bats with runners in scoring position. In Game 1 against Atlanta, the Phillies had another 8 at-bats with a man on second or third base. Despite the absence of Rhys Hoskins, this lineup has no discernible weakness from top to bottom.
Perhaps the most scary thing for opposing teams is that the Phillies are only 7-for-31 (.226 batting average) with runners in scoring position. This postseason, positive regression is likely in store for this offense sooner rather than later – and possibly as soon as tonight. This lineup has the potential for a breakout game at any point.
Phillies’ bullpen back on track
Having a scheduled off day on Sunday, there was little doubt that manager Rob Thompson was going to be extremely aggressive with his bullpen in Game 1. The surprising part was that Philadelphia’s relief corps blanked Atlanta across 5.1 innings, using six different pitchers. In addition to Philadelphia’s impressive performance as far as run prevention goes, Thompson’s shrewd management of his arm barn avoided overtaxing any of his relief arms, meaning that everyone is rested and should be available again in Game 2. The Phillies have the most talented bullpen of any team left in the postseason, and their ability to get multiple reliable southpaws into the action is a unique weapon that other teams do not have.
Atlanta Braves
What to expect from Max Fried
On Monday night, Max Fried will be making his first start since September 21, when he lasted 6 innings and allowed only 1 earned run against the Washington Nationals. Fried missed time during the regular season due to injury multiple times, but he was still extremely effective when he was healthy enough to take the ball. He finished the year with a 2.55 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP. He ranked in the 97th percentile in xERA and the 91st percentile in average exit velocity allowed among qualified pitchers. Fried gets ground balls and limits hard contact better than almost any pitcher in baseball. Having so much time between starts is an obvious concern, but there are no red flags related to Fried’s talent.
Atlanta’s offense looking for bounce back performance in Game 2
In 2023, Atlanta compiled one of the most impressive offensive seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. Ronald Acuna had a historic 40-homer, 70-stolen base campaign – the first of its kind in league history. Matt Olson had a career-high 54 home runs but and was one of five players on the Braves to drive in at least 97 runs. From top to bottom, this offense was the most feared unit in the league. Of course, they scored zero runs in their postseason opener.
Success in baseball is predicated on repetition, which the 1-seeded Braves were not afforded during a near week-long break without a game. Thus, it is not the most surprising thing in the world that Atlanta was flat in the series opener. This summer, Atlanta’s offense led baseball in OPS and ISO against RHP. They have a tough test against Zack Wheeler in this spot, but the larger question is simply whether or not this group has had enough live reps in the last seven days for their immense talent to show up on the field this evening.
Atlanta’s bullpen a concern going into Game 2
Across the final month of the regular season, only the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels (both non-playoff teams) had a worse bullpen FIP than Atlanta. During that time period, the Braves ranked 28th in FIP, 24th in WHIP, 14th in strikeout rate, and 11th in walk percentage. When Atlanta won the World Series in 2021, manager Brian Snitker abused his top relievers on a nightly basis to get outs in the latter stages of ball games. He does not have the same level of elite back-end talent that he did two years ago in October.
This was evident in Game 1, with Snitker using A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, and Raisel Iglesias for the 8th and 9th inning, despite trailing 3-0. The off day on Sunday meant that there was no reason for Snitker to avoid using his top relievers, but his lack of trust in other options should be a red flag on top of the other red flags that we have seen in recent weeks from this unit.
Phillies vs. Braves – Picks & Predictions
In Game 1, the Phillies delivered for us on the moneyline, and there are not a lot of reasons to change course in Game 2. Philadelphia’s offense ranked 3rd in OPS and 3rd in ISO against LHP after the All-Star Break this season. In the Wild Card round, Philadelphia saw two starting southpaws and scored 5 runs against them in 7 innings. Max Fried has not pitched in a live game since September 21, and the Atlanta offense has not had game reps against opposing pitchers in consecutive days in over a week. At significant plus money, it is simply too difficult to pass up the Phillies in this spot.
PICK: Phillies Moneyline (+140, Fanatics Sportsbook)