Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Picks, & Prediction for Thursday, August 5th

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-11-18 23:36:29

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds

On Thursday afternoon, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Washington Nationals will wrap up a four game set at Nationals Park. The Phillies have won each of the first three games of this series and will be going for a sweep, playing behind Aaron Nola today. Nola will be opposed by Joe Ross.

Read more: Best MLB Bets for Thursday

Phillies

Nola owns a below average 4.30 ERA on the year, but his 3.47 FIP grades as twenty-percent better than the league average pitcher. Despite ranking better than league average in average exit-velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel-percentage, Nola has experienced poor luck on balls in play, which has led to surface-level numbers that are far worse than expected outcomes. Bettors should be assured that Nola has not diminished in talent whatsoever. He ranks in the 79th percentile in strikeout-percentage and the 91st percentile in walk-rate, which is evidence of his elite command. Nola has an outstanding whiff-percentage and one of the best chase-rates in all of baseball. There are better outcomes in his near future as his luck begins to even out. Over his last six starts, Nola owns a 3.05 FIP and a videogame-like 33.8 strikeout-percentage against a miniscule 2.7 percent walk-rate. He draws a favorable matchup against a Washington lineup that ranks only 12th in OPS and 18th in ISO over the last two weeks. Expect a strong performance for the Phillies’ starter here.

Nationals

Ross has been very mediocre through 18 turns in the rotation with a 4.00 ERA, 4.16 xERA, and a 4.46 FIP. His 24.3 strikeout-percentage and 7.5 percent walk-rate are neither excellent nor poor. Ross could stand to benefit from cutting down on his 8.8 percent barrel-rate, but it is not so alarming that he should be worried about his job security. In his last six trips to the mound, he owns a 3.67 ERA and a 3.60 FIP, but those numbers are slightly skewed by a seven-inning gem against the hapless Miami Marlins in which he did not allow a single run. In three of his other five starts during that span, he has allowed three or more earned runs, and has failed to make it past the fifth inning in three starts as well. Today he will be forced to contend with a Philadelphia lineup that ranks fourth in OPS and 11th in ISO over the last two weeks, and third in OPS and eighth in ISO over the last 30 days.

Phillies vs. Nats Betting Picks

One of the most feared names in the surging Phillies lineup is Bryce Harper, who enters play with the third-best OPS in the National League. The two qualified players ahead of him—Ronald Acuna Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr —are both currently on the injured list. Even though Harper is +3000 as of this writing to win the Most Valuable Player Award, his numbers are unquestionably amongst the best in the game this season. For bettors who are curious, Harper has +300 odds to hit a home run in this game. Ross owns a 5.17 FIP against left-handed hitters in 2021 and has allowed at least one home run in 12 of his last 16 outings.

The Phillies have a significant advantage in the starting pitching department in this one. Even if Nola struggles or experiences poor luck on balls in play, Philadelphia is far-better equipped to win an offensive shootout than Washington, especially since the Nationals traded away Trea Turner at the end of July. Over the last 30 days of action, the Phillies have the 13th ranked bullpen FIP, compared to the Nationals who rank 25th. Philadelphia has an advantage in all facets of this matchup. Back them with confidence on the moneyline and place a few dollars on them on the -1.5 run line as well if looking to maximize profit with a little bit of additional risk.

Pick: Phillies ML (-145), Phillies -1.5 (+105)

Phillies vs. Nationals Over/Under 8.5

At first pitch today, the temperature is forecasted to be in the low-80s with a negligible wind blowing in from left-center-field. In day games in 2021, Nationals Park has produced the ninth-most offensive of any venue in Major League Baseball. The current market price on the total seems to be appropriately set here, but a small wager on the over could be warranted, considering the fact that both of these relief corps are relatively heavily taxed, and neither of them is particularly talented. There should be plenty of run-scoring opportunities throughout this contest.

Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-110)

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