Tips to Win Big by Points Betting 2020 NFL Draft Props
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The 2020 NFL Draft presses on despite current events. Instead of moving back the date, the draft is moving remote. Preparing accordingly, NFL front offices have worked without the luxury of meeting and watching prospects in person in the weeks leading up to the draft. Thus, with less information available, draft analysts and oddsmakers are largely playing a guessing game, at least more so than usual for this time of the year.
While mock draft experts try their best to predict what GMs are thinking, oddsmakers at legal US sportsbooks disagree on a handful of NFL Draft betting odds, making shopping NFL Draft props across online sports betting sites more important than ever. Another way sharps look to profit next Thursday is by adding Points Betting to their NFL Draft betting arsenal.
What is Points Betting NFL Draft Props?
Points Betting is sports betting with a twist. Points Betting wagers, as opposed to traditional ATS and Over/Under markets, allow bettors to multiply their winnings (or losses) the more right (or wrong) they are.
For more details about the Points Betting concept, read here.
2020 NFL Draft Points Betting Lines
The following NFL Draft lines are accurate as of Friday, April 17 at PointsBet. All odds are subject to change.
Isaiah Simmons – 5/6
Earliest: 8 percent of mock drafts have Simmons, the top linebacker in the 2020 NFL Draft, heading to the Detroit Lions. Another 33.3% think Simmons will be too enticing for the Giants to pass on.
Latest: 32 percent have Simmons landing in Carolina as the Panthers look to fill the hole left from Luke Kuechly’s early retirement.
Takeaway: The consensus is that the Lions will draft Ohio State cornerback Jeff Ukodah, and I still think Giants draft an offensive lineman to help protect Daniel Jones. If I’m right, Simmons will almost certainly slip to the No. 7 pick with the Dolphins and Chargers drafting quarterbacks at picks No. 5 and No. 6, respectively. The main question is whether you think the Giants can resist Simmons, whose freak athleticism will allow him to play multiple roles on defense.
Justin Herbert- 7/8
Earliest: Herbert has been the center of draft debates for much of the offseason. First, it was whether he or Jordan Love would be the third quarterback selected. Oh, how things change. With reports of Tua Tagovailoa’s physicals leading to troublesome revelations, some NFL insiders believe Herbert could jump Alabama’s injury-riddled quarterback.
Latest: Most experts agree that the Los Angeles Chargers will take a quarterback regardless of who is available between Tua and Herbert.
Takeaway: There’s not much too much to contemplate. Under 7.
Andrew Thomas – 11/12
Earliest: The Cleveland Browns are favorites to land the offensive tackle, but some think he might come off the board even earlier.
Latest: Thomas falls to the No. 14 in 37 percent of mock drafts.
Takeaway: The reports of Thomas being the first offensive lineman off the draft board could be nothing more than smokescreens. We see a lot of that this time of the year. On the other hand, if there is truth to the rumors, then a Thomas Points-Betting wager could pay out a large chunk if you’re willing to take Under 11.
Jerry Jeudy – 11/12
Earliest: Jerry Jeudy goes to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 8.3% of mock drafts, including Mel Kiper’s most recent mock. Considering teams 1-8, No. 9 is about as early as we can expect for any receiver.
Latest: Depending on how teams feel about CeeDee Lamb and Henry Ruggs, though unlikely, Jeudy could hypothetically fall to roughly pick No. 15.
Takeaway: The problem is even if the Jaguars are sold on Gardner Minshew and want to gift him a receiver, we aren’t sure it will be Jeudy. I’d stay away from Points-Betting Jeudy, but I suppose Over 12 is the call if you can’t help yourself.
CeeDee Lamb – 11/12
Earliest: Lamb goes as early as No. 11 to the New York Jets in 22.6% of mock drafts surveyed by SBNation, and is gone by pick 15 in around 80 percent.
Latest: The speedy receiver falls to the Broncos at No. 15 in just over 14 percent of mock drafts.
Takeaway: It will be a tough decision between Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, and CeeDee Lamb for any team looking to take a wide receiver in the first half of Round 1. With that in mind, the value is on Over 12.
Henry Ruggs – 13/14
Earliest: Speaking of Ruggs, sharp NFL draft experts such as Matthew Freedman like Ruggs to be the first receiver off the board. If so, this means the former Alabama wideout will join Jon Gruden and the Raiders (pick No. 12) in Las Vegas. 13 percent of mock drafts agree.
Latest: The majority of mock drafts believe Ruggs will be taken somewhere between picks 13-15.
Takeaway: Again, with this trio of tier 1 receivers, not to mention Justin Jefferson as a wild card, for Points Betting purposes, there is a much better chance of a hefty payout by betting Over 14 but don’t be surprised if he goes to the Raiders, cashing Under 13 tickets. I’d like to stay away.
CJ Henderson – 16/17
Earliest: 40.5 percent of mock drafts predict CJ Henderson to go to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 16 while the overwhelming majority of mocks think he’ll go sometime between 13-16. Mel Kiper says he’ll go as early as No. 12 to the Raiders, and “The Athletic’s Dan Brugler is even more bullish on Henderson, predicting the Jaguars to reach on the cornerback from Florida.
Latest: The other 20-ish percent of mocks have Henderson falling to the Dallas Cowboys, who need to replenish their secondary after losing Byron Jones in free agency.
Takeaway: I’m following a crowd that is quite confident in Henderson answering the phone before pick 17. The Under 16 sounds pretty safe for at least a push.
Jordan Love – 23/24
Earliest: The Las Vegas Raiders have the No. 19 pick in the NFL Draft to go along with pick No. 12, and with Gruden and the Raiders seemingly growing sour on Derek Carr, Love could be making his way to Sin City. Mel Kiper goes as far as to suggest a team could move above the Raiders for their chance at Love. The Jaguars could even make a move at No. 9 if they’re really bullish on Love. Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that there was a serious debate between who would go first between Love and Herbert.
Latest: This line moved from 18/19 to 23/24 overnight, meaning sharp money is Love falling to the Patriots at No. 23 or beyond. As of April 13, Brugler sees Love falling outside of the first round.
Takeaway (Updated 4/20): It wouldn’t surprise me if the Patriots take Love at No. 23, but that won’t pay is out big. However, if Belichick decides to address other needs then Love could fall further than expected. Over 24 has more upside.
Update (4/20): After some more thought, I think
Justin Jefferson – 22/23
Earliest: Nearly half of mock drafts have Jefferson going to the Philadelphia Eagles (pick No. 21), who desperately need to add a receiving weapon for Carson Wentz. There’s a chance Jefferson gains steam and ends up on a team like the Denver Broncos (No. 15).
Latest: Both Brugler and ETR’s Evan Silva think the Green Bay Packers can get their hands on Jefferson with the 30th pick.
Takeaway: I feel safe taking Under 22 in hopes of the Broncos taking Jefferson off the board and the Eagles saving us from the threat of a big loss.
Xavier McKinney – 25/26
Earliest: You can find Mckinney putting on a new hat as soon as pick No. 17 (Dallas Cowboys).
Latest: Others have Mckinney falling outside of the first round.
Takeaway: Some of the sharpest analysts, like Silva and Freedman, agree that McKinney will be taken with the second of the Jaguars’ two first-round picks (No. 20). That coupled with the off-chance of McKinney going to the Cowboys is enough for me to like Under 25.
D’Andre Swift – 30/32
Earliest: The five-foot-eight running back from Georgia is set to move to South Beach with the Dolphins snagging the running back at pick No. 26 in 22.6% of drafts.
Latest: The Chiefs could add Swift, who is a great pass-catcher, at No. 32. Otherwise Swift will likely fall a few spots before receiving a phone call in the first half of Round 2.
Takeaway: There are not many teams in the first round that have a glaring hole in the backfield. And though there’s plenty of ineptitude in NFL front offices, executives are mostly catching up to the fact that it’s usually a bad idea to draft a running back with their first pick. Look for Swift will be available to teams in Round 2: Over 32.
Jonathan Taylor – 40/42
Earliest: Jonathan Taylor’s absurd production is why some think he is the best running back in this year’s draft, and thus potentially the first running back off the 2020 NFL Draft board.
Latest: Mel Kiper believes Taylor will fall to pick No. 45 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Takeaway: The Over/Under line at DraftKings Sportsbook is 37.5, which makes Under 40 tempting. However, Taylor could fall if NFL teams think there’s too much wear on his tires from playing in the Big Ten.
J.K. Dobbins – 53/55
Earliest: In one recent mock draft Dobbins goes as early as No. 26. Don’t let that guide your decision, though. I’ll be shocked if Dobbins is either taken in the first round or take before Swift/Taylor.
Latest: The Over/Under at FanDuel Sportsbook for Dobbins’ draft position is 44.5.
Takeaway: FanDuel’s line sounds about right, which is why I lean toward Under 53 for a Points Bet. The lines FanDuel at PointsBet also present a potential middling opportunity if you want to bet at both sportsbooks.
Jalen Hurts – 61/63
Takeaway: We’ll skip the earliest/latest takes and defer to Dan Back:
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