PrizePicks NBA Player Picks Today: Value on Allen, Avdija, and Sabonis
We’ve got just 4 games on the board in the NBA tonight, but there is still value to be found over on PrizePicks. 3 of the 4 games feature point spreads of at least 9 points. The late game – Cavs at Kings – has a 3-point spread, but also the lowest over/under on the board.
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NBA PrizePicks Predictions Today
Jarrett Allen More Than 26 Fantasy Points
The Cavs have been watching the minutes for Jarrett Allen since he returned to the lineup on the heels of an early-season ankle injury. While the playing time has been trending in the right direction, he’s still likely to be capped around 30 minutes tonight when the Cavs face the Kings in the California capital. Cleveland is favored by 3 points here as the Kings continue to play without De’Aaron Fox.
Allen sure looks healthy, as he’s averaging about a fantasy point per minute through his first 4 games. This is a nice pace-up spot for Cleveland, and remember that PrizePicks credits players with 3 points per block or steal. Even with relatively limited usage (16.4%), Allen has also supplied at least 10 real points in each game to this point.
It won’t take a monster game for Allen to top 26 fantasy points tonight.
- Play: Allen – More Than 26 Fantasy Points
Deni Avdija More Than 14.5 Points + Assists
Deni Avdija doesn’t receive a lot of attention as a worker bee type playing for the Wizards, but he’s quietly putting together a solid season. He’s another guy that falls down the usage pecking order on a team that features Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole offensively, but Avdija has still found a way to contribute 1.06 FP/min in the early going. He’s actually second on the team in rebound rate and third in assist rate, narrowly trailing Poole for second.
After failing to crack 30 minutes in any of the season’s first 7 games, Avdija has topped 30 in 2 straight. That includes a 38-minute outing in the last game against Brooklyn in which he attempted a season-best 18 shots. Through 9 games, Deni is averaging a shade south of 13 points and 4 assists a night.
Washington is a healthy 9.5-point underdog tonight in Toronto, and the Wiz are certainly candidates to get blown out on a nightly basis. If they can keep it close enough for Avdija to play a full complement of minutes, however, I have faith in his chances to top 14.5 combined points and assists here. He’s accomplished the feat 5 times through 9 games already.
- Play: Avdija – More Than 14.5 Points + Assists
Domantas Sabonis More Than 46.5 Fantasy Points
UPDATE: There’s a chance Fox plays tonight, but I still think this is attackable even if he does.
As mentioned, the Kings are expected to be without De’Aaron Fox tonight with the Cavs in town. We’ve seen Davion Mitchell and Keon Ellis both draw starts in Fox’s place already, though the offense will continue to flow through Domantas Sabonis instead.
Since the beginning of the 2022-23 campaign, Sabonis is second on the team in usage – trailing only Malik Monk – among regular rotation guys with Fox off the floor. He’s also a close second behind Monk in assist rate and leads the Kings in rebound rate. We saw Doma post a triple-double in the last game, while he came an assist shy of doing so in the game before that.
Sabonis is essentially a poor man’s Nikola Jokic with the way he stuffs the stat sheet. Tonight’s matchup against a stingy Cavs defense isn’t an ideal one, but he has a good chance to play his full 36-minute projection in a game we can expect to stay close.
- Play: Sabonis – More Than 46.5 Fantasy Points