NFL Betting Tips, Picks & Predictions: Our Staff's Best Bets for Rams vs. Bills
The 2022 NFL season is here! Our analysts have already looked at Bills vs. Rams odds, a few player props, and a same game parlay for Thursday Night Football. Now it’s time for our staff members, who are often lurking behind the scenes, to get in on tonight’s action with their own tips, best bets and predictions.
Bills vs. Rams Best Bets — Thursday Night Football
2nd Half Total OVER 25 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
By Kevin Roth, Chief Meteorologist
With this heat wave ongoing across the west coast we have an excessive heat warning for the game and a kickoff temp around 90 degrees. Early in the season some guys aren’t in game-shape yet, and while cramping and heat-exhaustion can happen to anyone, the general “exhaustion outcome” is that defenses wear down late in games. I like a second half shootout to bury that 25 point total.
Check out our NFL Weather page for weekly forecasts and updated reports from Kevin throughout the NFL season.
Matthew Stafford Over 265.5 Passing Yards (-115, at PointsBet)
Andy Means, Director of Premium Content
PointsBet is just begging you to take the over here. And you know what? I am happily going to take the bait. Most of the other popular sportsbooks have this at least at 270.5, with DraftKings all the way up at 274.5 (and also at -115 on the over). I’ll take that nine-yard buffer in a heartbeat, because Stafford is probably throwing for 300+ yards anyways against a Bills pass defense that is missing Tre’Davious White.
WR Ben Skowronek in DFS Showdown Contests (DraftKings & FanDuel)
Allan Lem, Social Media Manager
This is a Showdown-specific recommendation, but I’m liking Skowronek on this slate as a cheap punt to fit in the studs. Van Jefferson has been ruled out and Skowronek should slide into Jefferson’s role as the WR3 in this Rams offense. Skowronek doesn’t profile as an elite receiver, but he knows the system enough to where the Rams trusted him to play 67% of the snaps in the Super Bowl once Odell Beckham went down with a torn ACL. The real appeal here is that Skowronek costs just $1,800 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel. Last season the Rams operated with the league’s highest rate of three-wide receiver sets, so this gives Skowronek a solid chance of being out there alongside Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. If Skowronek can just catch a few passes or even haul in a single touchdown, he’ll more than pay off his price tag in lineups where you can still jam in the elite players in this game.
New to DFS? Here are our top DFS sites for the 2022 season.
Parlay – Kupp O7.5 catches + Stafford O1.5 passing TDs (Caesars)
Ted Dahlstrom, Evergreen & Commercial Content Manager
I grew up in Yakima, WA, the same hometown as Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp. My dad was even his 4th grade teacher at Nob Hill Elementary. Shout out to all the Nob Hill Elementary grads! As a HUGE Seahawks fan, I don’t root for the Rams under any circumstances, but I am a big fan of Kupp. How can you not be? He works hard, has a great attitude, and seems like a terrific guy off the field. Plus he is fun to watch. Cooper can catch anything!
I predict he will start off 2022 strong with over 7.5 catches against the Bills. While I’m not a big fan of parlays, if he gets 8 or more catches today, Matt Stafford, the Rams QBs, should also have a good game and throw for 2 or more TDs. SAO’s new ParlayIQ tool (currently in beta testing, but available to you soon!) says that this bet has a 35% chance of success, which is well above the average 27.4% implied probability of a two-leg parlay. May as well combine the two (-106 and -194 respectively at Caesars Sportsbook) into a +176 parlay. Go Cooper!
Note: This same-game parlay may not be available at all sportsbooks, but I found it on Caesars a few hours before kickoff.
Cooper Kupp – Over 89.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings Sportbook)
John Britt, Lead Editor
Kupp surpassed 90 receiving yards in 17 of 19 games last season. This is a game that will likely remain quite competitive throughout and potentially force Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense to aggressively look to point up points. With Van Jefferson out of action for tonight’s game, I expect Stafford to look to his favorite target even more frequently in the season opener. I am expecting yet another 100+ yard performance from last year’s Offensive Player of the Year winner.
Isaiah McKenzie First Touchdown (+2000, BetMGM)
Matt Schmitto, Commercial Content Lead
If betting on First Touchdown odds makes me sick, then call me a doctor. First Touchdown bets are the football equivalent to scratch off tickets from your local convenient store. I love both far too much. However, in tonight’s case, I think there’s actually some value betting on Isaiah Mckenzie to find early paydirt. Let me explain.
With Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders both gone, Mckenzie is slated to start in the slot for the pass-happy Bills. And do you remember how much Josh Allen loved Beasley? There is a lingering groin injury from training camp and some competition from newly-acquired Jamison Crowder to be wary of, sure, but all signs point to Mckenzie getting a majority of reps tonight. As we saw more than once during the 2021 season, Mckenzie is explosive when he has the ball. The Bills also like to draw up sweeps for the speedy receiver, giving him a combined six rush attempts in two playoff games last winter.
With Jalen Ramsey busy covering either Stefon Diggs or Gabriel Davis outside, I expect quarterback Josh Allen to turn to Mckenzie to break a big play against a a stout Rams defense that is notorious for shutting down running backs.
Image Credit: Imagn