Best Bills vs. Rams Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday Night Football from Josh Allen, Allen Robinson, and Darrell Henderson? Follow along as betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down his favorite NFL prop bets for the Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams.
The Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams will open Week 1 of the NFL season on Thursday evening at Sofi Stadium in a highly-anticipated matchup between two Super Bowl contenders. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair, pricing the Bills as 2.5-point road favorites on the spread. With less than 48 hours until kickoff, the value on the spread and the total has been reduced compared to its opening market price. Instead of forcing action on saturated markets, NFL bettors may find more expected value on player props for this Thursday Night Football game.
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Bills vs. Rams Player Props
- Josh Allen Over 35.5 Pass Attempts
- Allen Robinson Over 61.5 Receiving Yards
- Darrell Henderson +310 Anytime Touchdown
Josh Allen – o35.5 pass attempts (-125)
Per EdgHouse, Josh Allen only eclipsed this number in 8-of-17 regular season games in 2021 (47.1% hit-rate). However, he easily cleared this in 4-of-5 games that were decided by one score (80.0% hit-rate), and still threw the ball 30 times in a four-point loss against the New England Patriots in extremely pass-adverse weather conditions. In games decided by one score, Allen had 51 pass attempts, 47 pass attempts, 47 pass attempts, 30 pass attempts, and 54 pass attempts (45.8 pass attempts per game). Considering the fact that the Bills are 2.5 point road favorites against the defending Super Bowl Champions, it seems reasonable to assume that we will see a tightly-contested affair on Thursday. Last year, the Buffalo Bills ran 66.3 plays per game (65.1 plays per road game). Assuming that the Bills get north of 60 plays in their season opener, it would be extremely surprising to see Allen fall below 36 pass attempts. The strength of the Los Angeles Rams defense is their defensive line, featuring four quality run-stuffers with Leonard Floyd, Aaron Donald, Greg Gaines, and Justin Hollins. Thus, it is no surprise that the Rams finished 5th in rush yards allowed per play last year, according to NFL GSIS. In this matchup, Buffalo could find it very difficult to establish any semblance of a running game behind a poor run-blocking offensive line. It would be particularly unwise for the Bills to force the run game when they have an opportunity to attack a mediocre Los Angeles secondary unit with Gabriel Davis and Isiah McKenzie. Even Dawson Knox could make a positive impact as a pass-catcher in this one against a Rams linebackers corps that is far from elite in coverage. Intuitively, this play makes sense. The data also strongly supports an abundance of pass attempts from Allen in this one. The over should hit with ease in a competitive game script.
Allen Robinson o61.5 receiving yards (-114)
Allen Robinson was faded out of the offense during his final season with the Chicago Bears, but it would be a mistake to let his poor statistical output from 2021 impact how he should be perceived heading into 2022. In 2020, he totaled 102 receptions and 1,250 receiving yards as one of the premier pass-catchers in the league. During the regular season, he eclipsed this number in 12-of-16 contests, with eight games of 80-plus receiving yards. On Thursday, he should see plenty of snaps lined-up against rookie Kaiir Elam, who will be getting his first taste of NFL action. Robinson could have a big day in his Rams debut.
Darrell Henderson – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+310)
This is simply a value play on a running back that has no business being listed as such long odds to find the end zone. In 2020, when both Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson were healthy and played 13 games or more each – Henderson had five rushing touchdowns for the season compared to Akers’ two. In 2021, Henderson scored on the ground five times in only twelve games, and Akers never found the end zone in any of his five combined regular season and postseason appearances. The Bills have a stout defensive line from a pass-rush perspective, but the interior is vulnerable against the run with DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver likely seeing a lot of snaps on Thursday. Henderson could very well find pay-dirt in this matchup if he finds himself on the field in a short-yardage situation near the goal line.
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