NFL Playoff Betting Preview: Rams vs. Packers Odds & Picks
The league’s No. 1 scoring offense and No. 1 scoring defense go head-to-head as the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs kick off this Saturday.
Led by Aaron Rodgers, the presumptive NFL MVP, the Green Bay Packers averaged 31.8 points per game while the future Hall of Famer threw a league-high 48 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Rodgers, 37, seemed to be on the decline just a couple of years ago, but the arrival of Jordan Love, Green Bay’s 2020 first-round draft pick, clearly has clearly given the veteran a pep in his step.
Meanwhile, the Rams have held opposing offenses to 18.5 points per game thanks to DT Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey. In fact, Donald and Rodgers are NFL’s highest-graded players, according to Pro Football Focus,
So let’s ask the age old question: What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Odds
Opening Line: Packers -7
Opening Total: O/U 46.5
Time: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
How to Watch: FOX
The Packers opened as 7-point favorites at online sportsbooks, but if history is any indication, this might not be the best spot for Cheeseheads. Of the four times the top offense and defense have met in the postseason over the last 20 years, the defense has come out on top three times.
That hasn’t stopped NFL bettors from putting their money on the Packers, though. As of Wednesday afternoon, 78% of money is behind the home team, per Scores and Odds.
Despite heavy money on the Packers, this spread has shortened a half-point since opening.
Weather
The last time the Packers hosted guests at Lambeau, not even snow, wind, and below-freezing temperatures could keep Rodgers from throwing four touchdowns.
With a high of 33 degrees, light winds, and only a 9% chance of precipitation in the forecast, the Rams will be happy to know they aren’t walking into a daunting Winter Wonderland. There will be 6,000 fans at Lambeau for the first time all season, but the Packers’ real home-field advantage is typically their comfort playing amid miserable weather. Unless something changes over the next few days, the boys from L.A. won’t be too far out of their comfort zone.
Stay on top of the weather for all four Divisional Round games with Kevin Roth’s NFL weather report.
Injuries
Rams: DT Aaron Donald (ribs), WR Cooper Kupp (knee), QB Jared Goff (thumb), QB John Wolford (neck), OT Andrew Whitworth (knee).
Packers: CB Kevin King (Achilles), Za’Darius Smith (ankle/thumb), WR Eauanimeous St. Brown (knee/ankle)
Saturday Update: Cooper Kupp is a “true game-time decision,” according to Adam Schefter.
First Packers-Rams injury report pic.twitter.com/GHV6iWtQqY
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) January 12, 2021
Packers fans shouldn’t find any of this alarming, as all of the key players listed on the injury report participated in Wednesday’s practice. Unfortunately the same can’t be said for Rams fans.
Recovering from thumb surgery, Goff didn’t get the start against the Seahawks, but he quickly filled in behind center after second-stringer John Wolford exited the game with a neck injury early in the first quarter. Goff finished the game without serious complications that could put him on the sideline — though he did seem to struggle to throw the ball — and he continues to trend in the right direction against the Packers after being listed as a full participant on Tuesday.
Absent at practice were Donald and Kupp. Concerning, indeed; however, head coach Sean McVay says both are expected to be ready Saturday. Whitworth is also expected to provide some much-needed pass protection for Goff against a defense that sacked quarterbacks on 7.45% of dropbacks (6th in the NFL).
Needless to say, the statuses of both Donald and Kupp are worth monitoring between now and kickoff. If either player is out, I think we see the line return to Packers -7.
Rams at Packers Betting Picks
ATS Pick: Rams +6.5
Over/Under Pick: Under 45.5
There are plenty of injury concerns to be wary of in the Rams locker room, but they didn’t’ keep me from jumping on Rams +7 as one of my early Divisional Round betting picks.
If Donald is healthy, he will undoubtedly make himself a problem for the Packers offensive line.
Green Bay has excelled in pass protection for most of the season, keeping Rodgers squeaky clean 68.44% of the time while in the pocket. However, most of those games were with All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari watching Rodgers’ blindside. That won’t be the case for the remainder of the playoffs after a non-contact injury ahead of Week 17 forced Bakhtiari on the IR.
While the Packers offensive line has been impressive, they haven’t been perfect. In Week 6, the Bucs managed to sack Rodgers four times while forcing two interceptions, proving that Rodgers isn’t invincible. In what has been a season full of MVP-caliber performances for the quarterback, Rodgers completed only 16-for-35 passes for 160 yards during the double-digit loss.
The Rams defense poses a similar threat with Bakhtiari absent, and even if the Packers line protects Rodgers from Donald, there’s still a significant impediment downfield.
Connecting with Davante Adams 115 times for 1,374 yards, Rodgers has delivered the ball to Adams with ease throughout their schedule. Remarkably, Adams led the NFL with 18 touchdowns despite missing nearly three full games.
Adams’ footwork and route running is as good as it gets, but he faces his toughest test yet against Ramsey, a cornerback who has consistently locked down some of the league’s most dangerous wide receivers. Take a look:
— Kevin Patra (@kpatra) January 13, 2021
Rodgers often looks like a magician on the football field, but Ramsey is a corner who can steal a few of his tricks. Suppose Ramsey succeeds in shutting down Adams like he did Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, DK Metcalf, and DeAndre Hopkins. In that case, Rodgers will have to lean on a lackluster supporting cast made up of Allen Lazard and Marque Valdez Scantling. Both have looked like formidable receivers at times thanks to Rodgers’ magic, but neither are real receiving threats. MVS can blast the top off of secondaries with his speed but the problem is when he tries to catch the ball.
I already grabbed the Rams +7, but I’m still fine with current number (Rams +6.5). Their defense is enough of a threat to take Adams out of the game and slow Rodgers down. Offensively, I expect the Rams to attack a defense that has been susceptible to the run by leaning heavy on rookie running back Cam Akers. Akers has combined for at least 100 yards in three of his last four games, and he has another good matchup against a rush defense that allows the fourth-highest Rush Success Rate and third-most EPA (expected points added) on the ground. I don’t think the Rams offense will score a ton of points, but their gameplan should help cash the Under as the defense keeps this within a possession.
[Bet Rams +6.5 and Under 45.5 at BetMGM]
Player Props
Jared Goff Under 215.5 Yards (BetMGM) – Goff’s thumb is in good enough shape to take snaps and hand the ball to Akers, but if last week was any indication, it wasn’t in condition for him to throw accurately downfield.
Aaron Jones Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM) – I disagree with my colleague Joe here. In previous years, the Packers have turned to Jones in the playoffs much more so than in the regular season. With Ramsey on Adams and the Packers favored, Jones should get the ball enough to hit the over on this rushing prop. Find out why Joe is betting the Under for this player prop.
Allen Lazard Over 3.5 Receptions (BetMGM) – If Ramsey shadows Adams, Rodgers will have to look at his other receiving options — MVS, Lazard, and Tonyan. Rodgers and Lazard appeared to have a lot of chemistry early in the season before the young receiver suffered an injury. Lazard is good to go for the Divisional Round, and I expect Rodgers to look for him a lot as he avoids throwing at one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.
Cam Akers Over 2.5 Receptions; Over 14.5 Receiving Yards – You’ll find +140 on Over of this receptions prop at DraftKings, which, um, sounds ridiculous. Akers caught more than two receptions only once during the regular season but his role has drastically increased in recent weeks. The rookie running back has three targets in three off his last four games and has at least 22 receiving yards in four of his last five. Other than the Jets, those were all games in which the Rams won. This time they’re playing as 6.5-point underdogs and there’s concern that Goff isn’t healthy enough to throw deep. What does that mean? More targets for Akers.
Check back more NFL betting picks as lines for player props open across online sportsbooks.
Image Credit: Imagn