NFL Divisional Round: Best Bets & Player Props at Online Sportsbooks
After a bounty of football over Wild Card Weekend, the NFL returns with four games for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Last week, three of my six props hit the pay window but the other three failed… miserably. We lost a pittance and brought our overall record to 33-23 for the season. Will the Divisional Round be fruitful? Here are my favorite picks for this long weekend in the NFL Playoffs.
Make sure to check out our NFL Divisional Round Odds and Betting Picks and the Rams-Packers Betting Preview to prep for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.
NFL Divisional Round Player Props
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones Over/Under 69.5 Rushing Yards
Throughout the season, the Rams and Packers were featured in prime time on several occasions. For that reason, I feel very comfortable and firm in knowing that the Rams defense is… well, it is extremely good. The Rams are potentially the top defense in the NFL and despite a couple of bumps and bruises, will be the strength of Los Angeles in a road game versus the top-seeded Green Bay Packers. Packers versus Rams will not doubt be a case of the unstoppable force versus the immovable object.
The Rams’ defense did not really give up much to any part of the offense. Los Angeles brings plenty of pressure (1st in Sack%) and gives up nearly nothing on the ground (3.9 rushing YPA). Aaron Jones will be in for a long day — like most of the Packers’ offense — and should struggle to find footing early in the game. Jones’ has struggled this season against top rushing defenses — averaging less than 4 yards per carry to the Bears, Colts, and the 49ers.
The Rams are surely going to attempt to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field while protecting Jared Goff with a heavy dose of Cam Akers. The Packers only averaged 61.9 plays per game on one on pure efficiency. The Rams will likely depress that number and Aaron Jones should struggle to beat this prop on volume. I am going to take the under in what could end up being an ugly game.
[Bet Under 69.5 Rushing Yards -110 at PointsBet]
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen Over/Under 303.5 Passing Yards
Weather could play a role in this game with most recent forecasts showing potential for snow and slightly troubling winds. Online betting sites have yet to adjust, at the time of this writing, with Josh Allen tabbed for a high volume of passing yards.
The Bills have had success against everyone moving the ball down the field utilizing the talents of their budding star quarterback. Allen amassed 324 yards in the Wild Card round and will likely need to fuel the Bills’ engine against Baltimore. Two problems…
The Ravens’ defense is returning to form. Baltimore allowed a putrid 54.55% completion rate to opposing quarterback in their last few games to go along with a minuscule 217.3 passing yards per contest. Does this mean that Josh Allen cannot perform well? Of course not. However, the sledding will be tougher.
Speaking of sleds, Josh Allen will likely combat the weather. Lamar Jackson has nearly no experience in snowy conditions. I expect the Ravens to run, run, run, and then… run some more. Allen’s possessions could be limited a bit more than usual and the elements could slow the pace down. Either way, the environment is not conducive to this very lofty prop.
I am going to take the under and hope for a sloppy game in some interesting Buffalo weather.
[Bet Under 303.5 Passing Yards -112 at DraftKings]
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Nick Chubb Over/Under 67.5 Rushing Yards
Could we find a game more opposite in environment than the Bills and Ravens game? The Browns continue their redemption tour in Kansas City in the first of two games on Sunday that are primed for a high volume of offense. The total screams shootout. The point spread screams beatdown. So, why a running back from the underdog?
Nick Chubb continues to show weekly just how great a talent the Browns have in the backfield. Chubb sat only behind J.K. Dobbins in the yards per attempt department (5.6 Y/A) on far more attempts. With a reputation by many as the first and second down plodder, Chubb repeatedly shows an elusive boost — evading tacklers and making defenders look silly. So, am I hitching my wagons to Chubb’s prop because of his skill.
Yes and no. My thought here is that the Browns only legitimate chance to topple the defending Super Bowl Champions is to run the ball… a lot. Armed with more than two capable backs in Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the Browns game plan surely must be to keep Patrick Mahomes and his high-octane offense off the field. Further, the Chiefs have shown vulnerability to the run game over the last couple of seasons — allowing 4.5 yards per rushing attempt to backs this season. Obviously, if the Chiefs get the ball and go up big quick, the Browns will not have a choice and Baker Mayfield could be in for a big day. However, if the Browns can score first or keep the game close in the first half, Chubb will receive all the carries he can handle. With such a volume of yards per attempt and the potential for twenty carries, I love this over.
I think if this game is within two scores, Chubb is getting the football. For that reason, I am taking the over. Fifteen carries or more and we are hitting the pay window… virtually.
[Bet Over 67.5 Rushing Yards -121 at DraftKings]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Tom Brady Over/Under 25.5 Pass Completions
The Buccaneers just eeked out a victory against the Washington Football team in the opening round of the playoffs. Conversely, the Saints victory was never in doubt. Traveling to New Orleans as an underdog in the playoffs, Tom Brady will be doing heavy lifting against an excellent Saints’ defense.
The Buccaneers look like a different football team since their bye with an offense that seems to improve each week. Ronald Jones should return on Sunday night. That said, even in a return, I would not expect Ronald Jones to be the focal point of the offense unless the Tampa Bay defense goes wild. Instead, given a three-point spread and 52-point implied total, I think the passing game is going to be featured.
With an offense clearly made in his image now, Brady’s short-passing repertoire is stocked with an arsenal of talent that all seem to be firing at the same time. Antonio Brown seems to be nearing the best version of himself — on the football field while Chris Godwin might be the best, and most athletic, slot receiver Brady has ever thrown a football. The weapons are so overwhelming that even a strong New Orleans defense will concede yardage and attempts.
The reason I love the over on the passing attempts in this game is the profile of both defenses. The Saints and Buccaneers both rank in the top five in yards per rushing attempt to opposing offenses. While the Saints rank well in terms of passing, I think this prime time football game is decided in the air. Brady did not exceed this mark in the first two contests but the Tampa offense is different now. The addition of Brown on the outside has opened the offense up a ton. As the only game indoors, there should be fireworks to close out the Divisional Round.
Give me the over. There are very few game scripts that keep Brady’s volume down. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him reach 40 passes.
[Bet Over 25.5 Pass Completions -115 at BetMGM]
Good luck with your player props. Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2020 NFL Player Props Record: 33 – 23
Net Units on One-Unit Bets: +7.13
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