Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Game 2 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Rangers vs. Astros Odds
| Rangers Odds | +105 |
| Astros Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Mon, Oct. 16 |
| Time | 4:37 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
Last night, Jordan Montgomery and the Texas Rangers rode the “death ball” to a 1-0 series lead, defeating the Houston Astros 2-0 in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. This afternoon, these two clubs will play Game 2 from Minute Maid Park. Nathan Eovaldi will get the ball for Texas. Framber Valdez is on the bump for Houston.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Astros as -125 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Texas Rangers
Nathan Eovaldi looking to continue postseason dominance
Nathan Eovaldi struggled mightily during the month of September, but he has been nearly unhittable so far in October. In two starts, Eovaldi has allowed only two earned runs across 13.2 innings of work, striking out 15 batters without issuing a walk.
Notably, Eovaldi’s velocity has jumped significantly this postseason, compared to his final six turns through the rotation in the regular season. From September 5 to September 29, Eovaldi averaged 94.1 miles-per-hour on his fastball. In his most recent outing against the Baltimore Orioles, Eovaldi ran his fastball as high as 98.4 miles-per-hour and did not throw a single 4-seamer below 94.1 miles-per-hour.
Assuming we see his recent uptick in velocity hold for Monday’s start, he has a chance to turn in another strong outing.
Rangers’ offense hopes to shake off rust in Game 2
Much has been made this October about teams having too much rest between games, which has negatively impacted offensive production. On Sunday night, the Rangers were the latest example of the phenomenon, scoring only two runs and having only three at-bats with runners-in-scoring-position after a five-day layoff between the Division Series and League Championship Series. Prior to Sunday’s contest, Texas had scored 32 runs in five games during these playoffs.
On Monday, the Rangers have a difficult task in front of them, facing their first left-handed starting pitcher this month. Texas ranked 26th in OPS and 20th in ISO against southpaws during the month of September and ranked 14th in wRC+ against southpaws following the All-Star break. Though the Rangers have an abundance of talent in their lineup, it is possible we see this group struggle to score runs for the second day in a row.
Texas leaning on starting pitching to avoid bullpen concerns
The largest concern for the Rangers heading into October was their bullpen. During the regular season, the Rangers’ bullpen ranked 22nd in FIP, 13th in WHIP, 19th in strikeout rate, and 6th in walk percentage. Texas was just as vulnerable in the late innings down the stretch, ranking 23rd in FIP, 17th in WHIP, 11th in strikeout rate, and 19th in walk percentage in September.
Texas has strong options in the eighth and ninth inning, but they lack a reliable bridge to get to Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc to close out games. Manager Bruce Bochy has been leaning on his starting pitching to get him deep into games this month, which has alleviated this concern considerably. He will likely give Eovaldi a long leash again on Monday as he tries to minimize the impact of this arm barn on the series.
Houston Astros
Framber Valdez gets the ball for Houston in Game 2
Framber Valdez struggled in his first start this October, but it is hardly indicative of how has performed on the big stage in recent seasons. In 2022, Valdez made four postseason starts, posting a 1.44 ERA and allowing less than a baserunner per inning.
On Monday afternoon, he gets a more favorable matchup against the Rangers than he did against the Twins in the Wild Card round. Following the All-Star break, Minnesota ranked 5th in OPS and 6th in ISO against left-handed pitching, compared to Texas, which ranked 17th in OPS and 13th in ISO during that same stretch.
Valez is a ground ball maestro who is built for success in the playoffs when he is throwing strikes. He has a good chance for a bounce-back performance in this spot.
Astros offense blanked in series opener
Evidently, Houston’s offense was impacted by the layoff between series, as they failed to score a run in Game 1 and tallied only five hits. Fortunately for Astros fans, this lineup gets another opportunity less than 24 hours later as they look to even the series at a game a piece.
Following the All-Star break, Houston ranked 3rd in OPS and 7th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Facing the Twins in the Wild Card round, this group scored 20 runs in four games, which was in-line with their season averages for the most part. Eovaldi presents a tough test for Houston, but they are capable of meeting the challenge head-on.
Dusty Baker managing with thin margins
Last season, Houston’s arm barn had seven different relievers throw at least 16.1 innings while posting a 3.00 FIP or better during the final two months of the regular season. This year, the Astros had only two relievers meet those standards. Only five of Houston’s relievers managed a sub-4.00 FIP with at least 16.0 innings of work during the final two months of the regular season while operating in a meaningful role for this unit.
The Astros’ relief corps performed adequately against a weak-hitting Minnesota lineup, but they will face a much tougher task in the ALCS against the Rangers elite lineup. Manager Dusty Baker will be hoping for length from his starting pitching to avoid over-exposing this group to potential damage.
Rangers vs. Astros – Picks & Predictions
Both of these bullpens are unreliable, so the best approach to betting sides and totals in this series is likely to isolate the first half of the game. Last night, we cashed a ticket on the under in the first five innings and we are rolling with the Astros moneyline in the first five frames. Texas’ offense struggled during the second half of the regular season against left-handed pitching and has not seen a left-handed starter yet in these playoffs. Houston has the better offense and the better starting pitcher in this matchup. They should be able to get an early lead in Game 2.
PICK: Astros Moneyline – First 5 Innings (-125, Fanatics Sportsbook)