Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Game 7 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Rangers vs. Astros Odds
| Rangers Odds | +110 |
| Astros Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Mon, Oct. 23 |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
The two greatest words in sports – Game Seven. On Monday evening, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will play Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, with the winner advancing to the World Series. Max Scherzer will be on the bump for Texas. Houston will counter with Cristian Javier. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Astros as -130 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Texas Rangers
What to expect from Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer did not pitch in a live game from September 12 to October 17, due to an injury that kept him out of action. He returned to the mound for Game 3 of the ALCS, but it was immediately evident that his stuff was not where it needed to be for him to be pitching on the big stage.
In that outing, Scherzer allowed contact on 88.4% of swings in the strike-zone. The contact was loud as well, with an average exit velocity of 97.3 miles-per-hour and 75% of balls in play meeting the threshold for “Hard Hit” – which means the exit velocity was 95 miles-per-hour or harder. Though Scherzer’s velocity was on par with his season averages, his spin rates were down across the board, which made his slider and curveball mostly ineffective offerings.
When fighting for a spot on the Texas roster for the ALDS, the main point of contention was how well Scherzer would respond physically after throwing at max effort. On Monday, we will get to see how healthy Scherzer truly is at this point in the season. Based on all of the information we have in front of us, it is highly unlikely that we see Scherzer pitch well tonight.
Texas offense hoping to punch ticket to World Series
The Texas bats have been hot and cold through the first six games of this year’s ALCS, scoring as many as nine runs but as few as two runs in a single game. Yesterday’s nine runs is slightly misleading as well, considering that five of those runs came in the ninth inning against a combination of Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Stanek – none of which are Houston’s high-leverage options.
Tonight, the Rangers will have to contend with Cristian Javier, who held them to only three hits and four total baserunners in 5.2 innings of work earlier in this series. After Javier, Houston will have all of their top relief options available, which figures to make life tough on this lineup.
There is plenty of talent in this Texas lineup, but it has not performed at an elite level so far in this series.
Texas bullpen cause for concern in Game 7
Considering that the Rangers are one game away from advancing to the Fall Classic, it is astonishing how little trust Manager Bruce Bochy has in his bullpen, outside of Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman, and Jose Leclerc. As a result, Texas has a very complicated path to victory in Game 7.
If Scherzer performs well tonight, his leash is still likely only five innings, meaning that there is a near absolute certainty we will see Bochy forced to use his middle-relief options on Monday. None of Texas’ middle relievers are reliable options, to put it nicely. Bochy also doesn’t have fresh high-leverage options, after using Sborz and Leclerc yesterday for 16 pitches each. Even Chapman was up in the bullpen and hot, ready to come in for the ninth inning before the Texas offense blew open the game.
The late innings are a major concern for Houston tonight. Do not be surprised if this team loses the pennant in heartbreaking fashion.
Houston Astros
Cristian Javier looking to continue postseason dominance
Cristian Javier has been dominant in his postseason career and 2023 has been no different. Last year, Javier allowed only one hit across 11.1 innings of work as a starter. This year, Javier owns a 1.69 ERA and has allowed only four hits across 10.2 innings of work.
Javier had a disappointing regular season, finishing in the 38th percentile in xERA and worse than the league average starter in strikeout rate and walk percentage. Yet, all of that will be forgiven if he can turn in another strong start on Monday.
In Game 3, Javier had increased velocity and significantly increased spin rates on all of his offerings, relative to their regular season averages. Unsurprisingly, his results were much better than they were during the regular season. Assuming his velocity and spin rates hold from Game 3, he should be able to put together another very strong outing in Game 7.
Houston bats have a problem at home
In five home games during these playoffs, Houston is averaging only 2.8 runs per contest. During the regular season, the Astros ranked 25th in OPS and 22nd in ISO in their home ballpark, which was in stark contrast to their production on the road.
Houston scored 23 runs in their three road games during the ALCS, but they have only six runs in three home games. Reportedly, there were cosmetic changes made to the batter’s eye at Minute Maid Park earlier in 2023, which Houston hitters have complained about for the majority of the year.
Evidently, Houston is still having issues generating runs in their home ballpark, even this late into the season. There is more than enough talent for this group to have an offensive explosion tonight, but there are obvious red flags of which to be mindful.
Astros bullpen has an advantage in late innings tonight
Manager Dusty Baker inexplicably used five different relievers yesterday in a game that he was losing from the fourth inning on, but this unit still projects better than their opponent tonight, Houston’s top reliever, Ryan Pressly, has not pitched since Friday, meaning that he is likely available for two innings tonight if needed. Pressly threw two innings in his last appearance, striking out three batters to close the door on a 5-4 Astros victory.
In front of Pressly, the bridge could be dicey, with nearly everyone available pitching on zero days of rest. Still, the arms in Houston’s bullpen are much more talented than the arms in the Texas bullpen, which gives the Astros the advantage here.
Rangers vs. Astros – Picks & Predictions
The Houston Astros have not been able to score runs at home this year, and that has continued from the regular season to the postseason. However, Houston did manage six runs at home in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Minnesota Twins, facing a combination of Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda for the first five innings. Tonight, the Astros get to face an extremely diminished version of Max Scherzer and a highly suspect Texas Rangers bullpen in Game 7. Cristian Javier has done his best Cy Young impression in his last four playoff starts, offering hope that he will perform well again this evening on the big stage. The Astros have been here before and have consistently proven capable of executing in key situations, an area where the Rangers continue to struggle. The bad guys are likely going back to the World Series.
PICK: Astros Moneyline (-130, Fanatics Sportsbook)