Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Game 5 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
|Wed, Nov. 1
The Texas Rangers hold a 3-1 World Series lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks entering play on Wednesday. Today, Texas will send Nathan Eovaldi to the hill, hoping to secure the organization’s first championship. Arizona will counter with Zac Gallen, who is hoping to keep his team’s season alive for at least one more game. First pitch for tonight is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the game as a pick’em, with both teams listed as -110 on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
What to expect from Nathan Eovaldi
Nathan Eovaldi allowed five earned runs in Game 1 of the World Series, but he still struck out eight batters and had good stuff overall. In 30.2 innings this postseason, Eovaldi owns a 3.52 ERA and has allowed only about one baserunner per frame.
Eovaldi struggled with his location in the series opener, but his velocity still topped out at 98 miles per hour, and his spin rates were more than good enough to put together a better performance. If he can locate his pitches better on Wednesday, manager Bruce Bochy will likely allow him to pitch into the sixth inning, if not later.
Expect Arizona to tread carefully with Seager
Prior to yesterday’s Game 4, the Rangers made the decision to replace Adolis Garcia on the team’s World Series roster due to an oblique injury suffered the night prior. Garcia’s absence was a notable news story due to the fact that he led Texas in home runs (8), runs batted in (22), hits (20), total bases (45), slugging percentage (.726), and OPS (1.108) during the Rangers’ first 16 playoff games.
Yet nobody would have known that Texas was missing their top hitter if they watched the game last night. The Rangers erupted for 10 runs in the first three innings of the contest, led by Corey Seager, who finished the night with a pair of extra-base hits and a home run.
Heading into Game 5, it is likely that the Diamondbacks will tread much more carefully with Seager, who already has three home runs and four extra-base hits in this series. Expect Zac Gallen and the rest of the Arizona pitching staff to force someone else to beat them tonight.
Texas bullpen looking to close the door on a championship
Yesterday, Andrew Heaney was able to surprisingly deliver five innings for Texas after the offense supported him with a 10-spot in the first three innings. As a result, the Rangers were positioned to avoid using their high-leverage relief options in Game 4 with a big lead. Unfortunately for Bochy, his arm barn allowed six runs in the final two innings, which forced him to use Jose Leclerc for the second consecutive night.
Ahead of first pitch tonight, Leclerc has pitched in back-to-back games, which hurts this group’s ability to cover the late innings. Aroldis Chapman and Josh Sborz are rested, but it would not be surprising to see Bochy try to get extra length from Eovaldi this evening, to avoid overusing his underwhelming middle relief options.
Gallen looking to extend Arizona’s season
Zac Gallen will get the ball for Arizona this evening, but that is not good news for the Diamondbacks. In five outings this October, Gallen owns a dreadful 5.27 ERA, 6.33 FIP, and 1.50 WHIP. Compared to the regular season, Gallen has seen his strikeout rate dip by 10.7% and his walk rate balloon by 5.4%. Opposing hitters had a .237 batting average against him during the regular season and a .269 batting average against him during the postseason.
Gallen has allowed multiple earned runs in each of his five playoff starts this year, and at least three earned runs in three consecutive starts. He will likely need a good amount of offensive support if Arizona hopes to compete tonight.
Diamondbacks face tough test in Game 5 at the plate
Despite getting to Nathan Eovaldi for five earned runs in Game 1, this lineup does not project particularly well tonight. During the playoffs, Arizona has been significantly less potent than Texas at the plate, hitting eight fewer home runs and scoring 19 fewer runs in the same number of games played.
Arizona’s two keys to victory center around two objectives – 1) win the base-running battle, and 2) get into the Texas bullpen. Eovaldi is a pitcher that teams can have success stealing bases against, which is an imperative for a weak-hitting lineup such as Arizona. The Diamondbacks will also benefit greatly if they are able to get into the Texas bullpen early in this contest, where the Rangers pitching staff is most vulnerable with underwhelming arms.
Ketel Marte has recorded at least one hit in each game for Arizona so far this postseason. He will need to produce at a high level again on Wednesday to keep his team’s season alive.
Sewald, Ginkel, and Thompson rested for Game 5
If there is one saving grace for manager Torey Lovullo heading into Game 5, it is the fact that he has his three best relievers available and rested, with a scheduled off-day tomorrow if he manages to pull out a win today.
Paul Sewald, Kevin Ginkel, and Ryan Thompson are Lovullo’s most trusted options out of the bullpen, and none of them have thrown since last Friday. It would not be surprising to see each of these guys be asked to cover more than one inning tonight after Arizona’s bullpen did not go according to plan in Game 4. Andrew Saalfrank is the only rested middle reliever available to help bridge the gap from Gallen to the back end of the bullpen this evening.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks – Picks & Predictions
Arizona won only 84 games and had a negative run differential during the regular season. The last team to win a World Series after posting a negative run differential in the regular season was the 1987 Minnesota Twins. Tonight, Arizona’s Cinderella run is likely to come to a merciful conclusion against a far more talented opponent. Texas has the better starting pitcher and the far better offense in tonight’s matchup. If manager Bruce Bochy can effectively navigate the late innings with a rested Josh Sborz and Aroldis Chapman, they should be able to end the night with a pool party in right-center field.
PICK: Rangers Moneyline (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)