Primetime Parlay: Ravens vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Picks
ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool utilizes thousands of simulations of RotoGrinders’ NFL Statistical projections to construct profitable same game parlays across sports betting sites. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props and betting odds across sportsbooks to pick the most profitable combination of outcomes for primetime NFL matchups. Today, we build a Thursday Night Football same game parlay for the Ravens vs Buccaneers.
The NFL wrote a schedule with the clear intent to feature an excellent primetime matchup in Week 8. Before the season, the Ravens versus the Buccaneers looked wildly exciting relative to the more recent primetime offerings. Nobody projected the Ravens’ defense to be a turnstile and Lamar Jackson to struggle to lead his team to a 4-3 record. More importantly, nobody could have predicted the Buccaneers would be 3-4 with back-to-back losses to Mitch Trubisky and P.J. Walker. With both teams in disarray, we hope the teams regress to our preseason projections.
On paper, this game looks like a great primetime matchup. Let’s build a same game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Preview
FanDuel pegs the Bucs as 1.5-point home favorites this evening with an implied game total at 45.5 points. The juice currently rests on the -1.5 and on the over. Per SAO, 77% of betting tickets over the week printed on the Ravens side while the money has been more of an even split. 66% of betting tickets sided with the under throughout the week but the line has moved up a couple of points.
On the injury front, we have plenty to sift through. The Buccaneers will be without the services of Russell Gage and Cameron Brate as both are already ruled out. Julio Jones will be a GTD with his knee injury. Antoine Winfield, Jr. is likely out after his concussion while Carlton Davis is out with his hip injury.
For the Ravens, a last-minute view of the injury report will be critical. Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey, and Marcus Peters are questionable but practiced in full on Wednesday. Gus Edwards and Rashod Bateman got limited practice in while Mark Andrews was a DNP throughout the week. All three are questionable for tonight. The fact that this game is a quick turnaround could lead to some additional rest for the three offensive players.
Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks
Tampa Bay -1.5
At some point, the Buccaneers need to figure this out and get back on track. While a couple of the defense players being missing is a big concern, the Ravens’ defense has struggled more than enough to bring me plenty of confidence a motivated Buccaneers team can bounce back at home.
The overabundance of betting tickets being printed on the Ravens’ point spread while the number continued to drive towards Tampa Bay seems fishy to me. Fading the public is often not the worst idea and we will ride with the Buccaneers to cover at home.
Tom Brady Over 277.5 Passing Yards
Speaking of getting right, Tom Brady has looked pretty awful this season. Perhaps, retirement wasn’t the worst option, after all.
Nonetheless, Brady is here and continuing to press on. The Buccaneers continue to pass the football at the highest clip in the NFL (67.4%) with the short-passing game often being an extension of the run game. The Ravens have allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 261.3 passing yards per game.
I think this is a 300+ yard passing game for Tom Brady and company and think this correlates well with a Buccaneers win. ParlayIQ agrees thus far as we are offered a better price on FanDuel already than what ParlayIQ suggests.
Leonard Fournette Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
So, now we get into some negative correlation for our FanDuel one game parlay. Normally, when legs don’t necessarily correlate the price that FanDuel spits out at us is a bit juicier. Conversely, if we tie everything to overs on the Tampa Bay passing offense, FanDuel is very likely going to suppress the price some because of the correlation.
In this instance, Leonard Fournette should receive more than enough volume to exceed this rushing total. ParlayIQ is utilizing RotoGrinders’ NFL Stat projections for the simulations we are using to help us build our parlay. We have Fournette projected for more than 15 carries and nearly 60 rushing yards.
The discrepancy alone justifies the price of this leg. 64% of the nearly 5,000 simulation of tonight’s game have Fournette going over this total. Given the negative correlation and the -110 tag on FanDuel, this leg is sure to give us a pretty hefty boost in price.
Lamar Jackson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
Finally, we include one Ravens’ over just for the negative correlation. The Buccaneers have allowed 5.5 yards per carry to quarterbacks this season. Marcus Mariota scampered for 61 yards against the Bucs on seven carries in their recent matchup.
Lamar Jackson is a big play waiting-to-happen. The uncertainty for both Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman might mean that Lamar is forced to run more frequently. Lamar averages more than 9 rushing attempts per game and should be efficient enough to exceed this total if he can find that sort of volume.
Even if both Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman both play, Jackson is still live to hit this over. His rushing total exceeded 70 yards in four of his seven starts this season with two of the misses just below 60 yards.
When we include this leg, the simulations and ParlayIQ offer use a price that pales in comparison to what FanDuel is tempting us with. Let’s take a look at the pricing difference below.
Ravens-Bucs Same Game Parlay Odds
- Tampa Bay -1.5
- Tom Brady Over 277.5 Passing Yards
- Leonard Fournette Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
- Lamar Jackson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
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So, ParlayIQ offers the following suggestion for this ticket:
!https://s3.amazonaws.com/rical-misc/piq10271.jpg(Same Game Parlay Picks!
Delightfully, FanDuel Sportsbook offers a monstrous discrepancy. FanDuel is daring us to make this bet because of the Lamar Jackson leg. I am going to put my faith in the simulations.
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PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Odds: +1537
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 7.69 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
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