Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Prediction & Preview: Playoff Berth On the Line Friday
Rays vs. Yankees Odds — Friday, Oct. 1
| Rays Odds | +110 |
| Yankees Odds | -121 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 1* |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. |
| TV | YES |
On Friday night, the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees engage in an intra-division showdown as the regular season nears its conclusion. Entering play, Tampa Bay has secured home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs. New York enters play having won eight of their last nine games. Hoping to clinch a Wild Card position, the Yankees will send Nestor Cortes to the hill, who will be opposed by Shane McClanahan. Oddsmakers are expecting the Yankees hot streak to continue, pricing New York as -121 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Rays Set for October
As a rookie, McClanahan has been a serviceable rotation piece for the Rays with a 3.44 ERA, 4.62 xERA, and a 3.35 FIP. Since the All-Star break, he has been even better—posting a 2.83 ERA and a 2.91 FIP. In that span, he is striking-out 26.5 percent of opposing batters against a 6.3 percent walk-rate. McClanahan might even have room for improvement as Tampa Bay heads into the playoffs, considering that he has been very unlucky with a .350 BABIP since July 20.
Over the last two weeks, the Rays offense ranks ninth in OPS and 13th in ISO. However, it is entirely possible that this lineup will be missing some starters over the next few days as Tampa Bay looks to get a few of their regular players some rest ahead of the postseason. Nonetheless, expect Manager Kevin Cash and his analytics team to field a competitive offensive attack, no matter how unrecognizable the names might be.
As the regular season draws to a close, do not expect Cash to be overzealous with his bullpen usage. The primary goal for the Rays this weekend will be to keep everyone healthy and to get each relief pitcher an appropriate amount of usage to keep them fresh for their championship run, which begins next Thursday.
Yankees Can Clinch Playoff Berth
Cortes has been a pleasant surprise for a New York rotation that has dealt with a plethora of injuries in 2021. Across 88.1 innings, Cortes owns a 2.85 ERA, 3.33 xERA, and a 3.77 FIP. Since transitioning to being a full-time starter, he has been slightly worse with a 3.26 ERA and a 4.46 FIP. However, his 25.9 strikeout-percentage and 6.1 percent walk-rate in that span indicate that at his worst, Cortes will still give New York’s offense an opportunity to win a ballgame.
Recently, the Yankees probably could have won a lot of games, even if they did not have reliable pitching. Over the last 14 days, New York’s offense ranks first in OPS and second in ISO. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge have been two of hottest hitters in baseball in the month of September. The Yankees should be able to put some runs on the board once again this evening, despite the tough assignment against the surging McClanahan.
Unlike Tampa Bay, New York will not hesitate to be aggressive with their bullpen usage in this contest. Looking to clinch a playoff berth, Manager Aaron Boone is likely to lean on some of his better relief arms. Jonathan Loaisiga and Aroldis Chapman have thrown only 12 pitches and 22 pitches, respectively over the last three days. The Yankees should have enough talent available in the late innings to seal the deal on a win in this one.
Rays vs. Yankees Picks
McClanahan is the better starting pitcher in tonight’s matchup, but the Yankees have the better offense, a capable bullpen, and the proverbial psychological edge. Betting on baseball during the final weekend of the regular season can be problematic due to players sitting and many teams having little to play for in the final days of September. Yet, New York does not have any of those issues. Expect the Yankees to be locked-in from the first pitch tonight and for them to emerge victorious against the Rays.
PICK: Yankees ML (-121)
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