Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Prediction & Preview: Playoff Picks for Game 1
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | +128 |
| Rays Odds | -152 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
On Thursday evening, the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays will battle in the American League Division Series at Tropicana Field. Entering play, Boston has won five of their last six games. Tampa Bay has won seven of their last 10 contests. In Game 1, the Red Sox will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill. He will be opposed by Shane McClanahan. Oddsmakers are anticipating the 100-win Rays to secure a victory in this one, pricing Tampa Bay as -152 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Boston Red Sox (+128)
On the surface, Rodriguez’s 4.74 ERA is unlikely to impress sports bettors. However, his 3.55 xERA and 3.32 FIP suggest that he was far more unlucky than he was bad in 2021. Rodriguez ranked in the 72nd percentile or better in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout percentage, and whiff-rate. When pitching away from Fenway Park, Rodriguez posted a 3.91 FIP and a 1.29 WHIP. In his last 13 trips to the mound in the regular season, his luck began to turn as he posted a 3.96 ERA and a 3.01 FIP. Rodriguez is better than his surface-level numbers indicate. He should be able to keep Boston competitive in this one.
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Boston ranked eighth in OPS, 18th in ISO, 19th in walk-rate, and 3rd in strikeout percentage. Since the beginning of September, the Red Sox lineup ranks third in OPS and seventh in ISO overall. This is a talented collection of players, featuring legitimate stars in Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Enrique Hernandez, and J.D. Martinez. It is worth noting that Martinez missed the American League Wild Card Game and his status is questionable for tonight against Tampa Bay. Still, this is an offense capable of absorbing the loss of one of their better players—as they did when they scored six runs on Tuesday night.
In the first half of the campaign, Boston had one of the more dominant late-inning relief units in baseball. However, closer Matt Barnes was less than stellar after the All-Star break. Garrett Whitlock, Adam Ottavino, Hirokazu Sawamura, and Hansel Robles have all seen high-leverage work, but none of them have been overly impressive. Since September 1, Boston’s relief corps ranks 21st in bullpen FIP.
Tampa Bay Rays (-152)
As a rookie, McClanahan turned in an excellent 3.43 ERA in 123.1 innings of work. However, his outstanding surface-level numbers concealed the fact that he also had a 4.57 xERA, which ranked 20 percent worse than league average. McClanahan also ranked in the 30th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel-rate. While he did strike out a robust number of opposing hitters, that strength could be mitigated against a Boston lineup that makes better contact than almost any team in baseball. Still, McClanahan owns a 2.81 ERA and a 2.84 FIP since July 9, so even with these concerns, it is unlikely that he gets shelled in this one.
Prior to the trade deadline, the Rays had one of the worst offenses in the league against left-handed pitching. The addition of Nelson Cruz and Jordan Luplow, plus the emergence of Wander Franco as a star player, seemed to remedy this issue over the final few months of the regular season. Since September 1, Tampa Bay ranks eighth in OPS and sixth in ISO. They continue to strike out at a high rate, but they also walk enough to offset some of that problem.
Arguably Tampa Bay’s biggest strength is their relief unit, and the fact that they use their relievers in the most unpredictable ways imaginable. Manager Kevin Cash does not have a lockdown closer. He plays matchups with Andrew Kittredge, Pete Fairbanks, Collin McHugh, J.P. Feyereisen, and others to create favorable outcomes. It works far more often than it does not.
Red Sox vs. Rays Picks
Since the beginning of the 2019 campaign, Tropicana Field has generated the second-fewest offensive production of any venue in Major League Baseball, including a home run rate that is 21 percent below league average. There is some risk to the under in this one, considering the strength of both of these offenses. Nevertheless, both starting pitchers have been throwing the ball extremely well in recent weeks. Avoid the Boston bullpen in this one and play the total on only the first five innings.
PICK: Under 4.5 (-128) First 5 Innings
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