Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | +200 |
| Dodgers Odds | -225 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 11 |
| Time | 9:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
On Tuesday, the San Diego Padres will travel to Hollywood for Game 1 of the National League Divisions Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Friars will hand the ball to Mike Clevinger, who will be opposed by Julio Urias. Oddsmakers are anticipating a relatively easy victory for the Dodgers in this one, pricing them -225 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 1 of the National League Division Series.
San Diego Padres
Simply put, Mike Clevinger is not a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. In his final 11 turns through the rotation during the regular season, he posted a 5.67 ERA, 6.50 FIP, and a 1.33 WHIP. In that span, his ERA was 46 percent worse than the league average pitcher, and his FIP was 62 percent worse than league average. Clevinger was particularly poor against left-handed batters this year, with a 5.29 FIP and a 1.17 WHIP. He was also worse on the road, with a 5.16 FIP and a 1.35 WHIP. There is very little from an analytical perspective suggesting that Clevinger will pitch well this evening.
Across the final 30 days of the regular season, Juan Soto batted only .265 with three home runs. Manny Machado had a .247 batting average and a .769 OPS, which is not bad for a league average player, but nowhere near the standard that we have grown to expect from the talented third baseman. The bottom of the lineup proved particularly inept, with Jurickson Profar, Josh Bell, Austin Nola, and Trent Grisham each having worse than a .650 OPS in that span. Yet, this group managed to tag Max Scherzer for seven runs in the early portion of Game 1 en route to a decisive victory. They returned to earth in Game 2, with only three runs on six hits in defeat. Then, this offense plated six runs in Game 3 to advance to the Division Series. There is plenty of talent in this lineup, but consistency has been a tremendous issue.
The bullpen for San Diego is also an area of concern. Post-All-Star break, the Padres’ arm barn ranked only 10th in FIP, 11th in WHIP, 17th in strikeout percentage, and 22nd in left-on-base percentage. The resurgence of Josh Hader in the month of September was a welcome sign, but a lack of depth behind the talented left-hander made the late innings far more volatile than many pundits would expect for a contender. In Game 2 of the Wild Card round, this unit surrendered five earned runs in only 5.2 innings of work. After having only one off-day between playing the Mets and the Dodgers, fatigue is also worth monitoring tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Since the beginning of 2019, there have been few pitchers better than Julio Urias, who owns a 2.63 ERA and a 3.45 FIP across 495.1 innings in that span. Across his final 85.1 innings of work in 2022, the talented left-hander posted a 1.27 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and a 0.87 WHIP. He is strong against both left- and right-handed batters, and has no problematic home-and-away splits of which to take note. Facing a San Diego lineup that has been near league average against southpaws of late, Urias is positioned well to deliver another strong outing.
Though the Dodgers are undeniably an offensive juggernaut, they are not completely infallible. Across the final two weeks of the regular season, this group ranked only 23rd in OPS, 28th in ISO, and 18th in strikeout percentage across right-handed pitching. As we have seen during the afternoon slate of action, the teams that received a bye in the opening round of the postseason have exhibited a healthy amount of rust to begin their respective game. Los Angeles’ bats could take a few innings to heat up in Game 1.
Once again, Manager Dave Roberts enters the playoffs with one of the most talented relief units in the league. Following the All-Star break, the Dodgers’ arm barn ranked 3rd in FIP, 1st in WHIP, 4th in strikeout percentage, 6th in walk rate, and 1st in left-on-base percentage. Healthy and rested heading into tonight’s action, this is one of the most dependable late inning collections of talent left playing baseball this fall.
Padres-Dodgers Pick
Julio Urias was 21-7 this year in terms of not allowing a run in the first inning of games, per props.cash, and Mike Clevinger was 17-5 in his 22 starts. Urias has a strong postseason pedigree, and will get to face a top-of-the-order that has been painfully inconsistent for Padres’ fans over the last few months. The Dodgers, like the other teams to receive a bye in the first round, could experience a slow start to this contest with their bats – making a scoreless first inning an appealing option in this spot.
PICKS: No Run First Inning (-128)
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