Padres vs. Mets Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Padres vs. Mets Odds
| Padres Odds | +132 |
| Mets Odds | -156 |
| Over/Under | 6 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
On Friday evening, the San Diego Padres and New York Mets will battle at Citi Field in the National League Wild Card round. The Friars clinched a postseason berth, despite the absence of “(player-popup #fernando-tatis)Fernando Tatis Jr and a lack of impressive play from their heralded mid-season trade acquisitions. The Mets won 101 games during the regular season, but were unable to hold on to a 10.5 game division lead in the National League East, which has them playing tonight rather than receiving a bye. Oddsmakers are expecting the Mets to emerge victorious in Game 1, with the New York listed as -156 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 1 of the National League Wild Card round.
San Diego Padres
In recent years, Yu Darvish has been a near automatic fade when pitching on the road. However, that was far from the reality in 2022, during which he posted a 3.03 FIP, 25.9 strikeout percentage, 4.2 percent walk rate, and a 1.05 WHIP. In his final nine road starts of 2022, he had eight quality starts, with four of those outings coming against eventual playoff teams. The primary concern for Darvish in Game 1 is his ability to limit damage against right-handed batters. In 194.2 innings this year, the veteran hurler had a 2.82 FIP, 28.7 strikeout percentage, .185 opponent batting average, and a 0.87 WHIP against left-handed hitters, but only a 3.93 FIP, 21.8 strikeout percentage, .233 opponent batting average, and a 1.05 WHIP against right-handed hitters.
Offensively, the Friars ended the regular season in a tailspin against right-handed pitching, ranking 18th in OPS, 25th in ISO, and 14th in HardHit% across the final 30 days of the schedule. In that span, Juan Soto batted only .265 with three home runs. Manny Machado had a .247 batting average and a .769 OPS – not terrible numbers, but far from elite. The bottom of the lineup is of particular concern, with Jurickson Profar, Josh Bell, Austin Nola, and Trent Grisham each having worse than a .650 OPS down the stretch. Facing one of the most talented right-handed pitchers in the league on Friday night is unlikely to improve these underwhelming numbers.
The late innings are also a potential area of concern for San Diego. Since the All-Star break, the Friars’ arm barn ranks only 10th in FIP, 11th in WHIP, 17th in strikeout percentage, and 22nd in left-on-base percentage. The resurgence of Josh Hader in the month of September was a welcome sign, but there is still a lack of depth behind the talented left-hander.
New York Mets
Max Scherzer has dealt with his share of injuries during the latter portion of his career, but none of them have impacted his performance when he is on the mound. In 145.1 innings in 2022, he posted a 2.29 ERA, 2.87 xERA, 2.62 FIP, and a 0.91 WHIP. Importantly, he was stretched-out to 101 pitches in his final regular season outing after a brief stint on the injured list – meaning that he should face no workload restrictions in this contest. Pitching at Citi Field this summer, Scherzer had a 2.60 FIP and a 0.88 WHIP. He had a 1.56 FIP, 31.7 strikeout percentage, 2.3 percent walk rate, and a 0.87 WHIP against right-handed batters, but was slightly worse against lefties – posting a 3.93 FIP, 29.3 strikeout percentage, 6.6 percent walk rate, and a 0.95 WHIP. Nonetheless, Scherzer is more than capable of dominating any lineup that the Padres sent at him this evening. Expect a dominant performance from one of the greatest pitchers Major League Baseball has ever seen.
The lineup for the Mets has question marks heading into the National League Wild Card round. Starling Marte will reportedly be on the roster, but it remains to be seen if he will be in the starting lineup on Friday. Regardless of whether Marte plays, New York is capable of making noise with the bats. Since Marte last played on September 6th, the Mets rank 4th in OPS, 11th in ISO, 7th in walk rate, 5th in strikeout percentage, and 6th in HardHit percentage. New York should be able to make life difficult on Darvish in this one.
The Mets have, arguably, the best bullpen of any team in the postseason. Across the final 30 days of the regular season, New York’s arm barn ranked 2nd in FIP, 6th in WHIP, 2nd in strikeout percentage, 1st in walk rate, and 7th in left-on-base percentage. Edwin Diaz has allowed only three earned runs in his last 43.1 innings of work dating back to May 27th – good for a 0.62 ERA. There is also depth behind the Mets’ dominant closer, which should allow Manager Buck Showalter to effectively navigate the bridge from Scherzer to the end of the game tonight.
Padres-Mets Pick
When Max Scherzer is healthy, there are few pitchers in the game more formidable than him. Stretched-out to 101 pitches in his final regular season outing, he should face no workload restrictions in this one. This is a favorable matchup for the veteran right-hander, getting to face a San Diego lineup that ranked in the bottom-half of the league in most relevant offensive metrics versus right-handed pitching down the stretch. Expect Scherzer to get through six innings tonight in the Big Apple.
PICKS: Max Scherzer – Over 17.5 outs recorded (-105)
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